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I don’t think Mac Swiney has the extremely pronounced rounded action associated with the archetypal soft ground performer, Bobby. However it is imo still rounded enough and not a flowing one either. Certainly not the pointing toe, flowing top-of-the-ground typical of one likely to be suited by good-firm / firm going. (imo a flowing action also better on Epsom’s undulations).
…And as FF says, form strongly suggests at his best on soft ground.
Not only that…
Mac Swiney has already run 8 times and not once on good-firm / firm, 6 last year; and this despite 2020 being a pretty hot year. Strongly suggesting he’s been kept away from going on the firm side of good.
That said: Second place in the Futurity went to One Ruler, who to my eyes has an even more rounded action… And again his record suggests he’s suited to softish ground.
Bit of a doubt with Godolphin’s other runner Hurricane Lane too. Although obviously goes well on good going his action is imo similar to Mac Swiney and has yet to run with (officially) firm in the going description; albeit from only three starts. Won’t be the reason given but no surprise if he misses the race too.
Value Is Everything“Its whether he needs bottomless ground because it makes the mile a stamina test
So upped in trip he may not need the soft ground
Though his performances are so bad on decent ground youd think hes definitely ground dependant”Great debate on this horse, followed him since his maiden win so had a few head scratchers along the way.
Like FF said i think he won that Doncaster race because he coped with the conditions the best, same as at the weekend whereas maybe others never.
Everything points to him needing soft ground to show his best but i do think over a longer distance he may prefer faster ground.That National stakes race was very rough and he more or less got knocked sideways there and from the sound of things the Derrinstown can be forgiven.
One thing is sure though that it will take a good one to get past him if it came to a scrap in the last part of the race.He does seem to be a bit of a warrior kind of horse.
I’d be very surprised if he won if the ground had good in it. It’s either the front two of aidens or a very late developing 3yo for me.
Have gone through the race and with the yard becoming increasingly bullish about the beautifully bred mohaafeth iv decided to take the 8/1 on offer
Weather forecast looks great so he will get his gd ground
Just like the way he is improving leaps and bounds from run to run and with Bolshoi ballet being too short and id have worries about high definition and John leeper handling the track he’s my last bullet.
I wonder who Mr Moore will pick. I am guessing he will go with BB. Ground – tick. Trip – tick. Turn of foot – tick. Well balanced – tick. Can travel – tick. Trial winner – tick.
I dont think Haggas is that bullish. “I think probably Bolshoi Ballet will win because he’s got a lot in his favour, providing he stays, but most Galileos stay really well.” he said in an interview on Wednesday. And that was after saying High Definition could turn out to be the best horse if not at Epsom then further down the line. He also described Epsom for his horse as “a worry”.
“He’s very good, Jim came and rode him, and he worked with two very smart older horses and went very nicely.”
“He’s a strong, mature horse who is quite well balanced and he’s got a lot in his favour in an open Derby.”
I’d have BB a 6/4 shot for this so I took more at 2/1 yesterday to go with a 28/1 antepost bet. He’s easily the best horse to back off trends.
I don’t think HD is going to run and he seems unlikely to suit Epsom.
MS would be a good choice in soft conditions but it could even be GF.
The trouble with Mohaafeth is that the derby history is littered with horses like him who turn out not to be good enough.
Better to stick to the main trials for me. He’s also raced 3 times already this year which is a big negative on tends.
Third Realm comes out strong on trends, lone Eagle would have an EW chance at those prices and One Ruler whilst doubts remain about his ability to stay is an insulting price currently
That’s mostly how I see it. The analysis in the Dante shows high definition really hitting his stride towards the last two furlongs without Moore applying much pressure. It looked a typical O’Brien horse not at 100% and he could well improve greatly for the run. He obviously hits a flat spot but is very talented. There’s only one Epsom derby and the lads always want to win it. I hope they swerve Epsom and go to the Curragh then the leger. Bb wins if he stays imho and if it’s the firm side of good there’s every chance he will. Btw is there any news on sir lamorak. I’d be very interested in backing him ew if he ran.
Sir lamorak currently 20/1 and entered. Fabby. If high definition doesn’t run the Seamie will be on Van Gogh I presume and Wayne lordan on sir lamorak. Or will padroig baggy do it again. Stranger things have happened as with serpentine last year. Currently good to soft at Epsom but temperatures in the low 20s all week so unless there is downpours before Saturday it’s good/ good to firm.
You’ll get a cracking price on mcswinney if it is good to firm.
I love the derby and have been loads of times. Epsom is such a unique course. Roll on next Saturday. Beers and popcorn.Who needs the cinema.I’ve managed to get myself a ticket for next Saturday mickey, I’m beyond excited to be back on a big course!
Sir Lamorak is entered twice next week in races not sure he’s gunna run on Saturday
I’m very jealous. I think where sir lamorak runs will give us an indication how confident the lads are.
Me neither Mike. Last report I read was him being well backed this week.
BUY THE SUN
Seems to be a lot of alleged gambles on coolmore horses. Divinely into 10s from 40s. Quite bizarre when they seem to have the oaks covered with Santa Barbara and snowfall. Similar to the gamble on battleground in the Guineas. These so called gambles don’t ring true to me especially with aidens second string winning all over the place. Surely not bookies manipulating the market. High definition may be flying at coolmore but he has to handle the track. The lads usually get it right in the derby with the odd exception.
I remember the story it was big Coolmore money backing Fame and Glory in to favouritism in Sea The Stars Derby, not because they particularly fancied him, but they wanted ‘Derby Favourite’ on his Stud advertisement! No idea if true.
BUY THE SUN
Over the years I have managed to land a few Trifectas. The Derby seems to work for me more than other high profile races. I have never managed to land one with the National. Below is the order in which I have rated the Derby & Oaks.
6 against the field for 120 Trifectas. Or, a more practical bet, 5 selections for 60 Trifectas.DERBY
High Definition
Van Gogh
Mac Swiney
Bolshoi Ballet
John leepeer
AdayarOAKS
Santa Barbara
Safron beach
Noon Star
Willow
Dubai FountainGood luck folks
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