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Yes I enjoyed reading that. Although the harsh answer to his PoW question is “Japan was unfit, Barney Roy is on the wane and the others aren’t G1 horses”.
Frankie is riding English King in the Derby. Tom Marquand been asked/told to step to one side for this one.
Frankie is riding English King in the Derby. Tom Marquand been asked/told to step to one side for this one.
My view on Russian Emperor is that this year, we should focus primarily on once raced at 3 horses. Over the last 20 years, there have been 9 horses that raced twice at 3 and with the exception being Ruler of the World, who was unraced at 2, all 8 others had recorded an RPR of at least 118.
Russian Emperor has a lot to find there for me. He looks decent, but I also read into Ryan Moore’s comments that perhaps he is actually the one for the Prix Du Jockey Club and Armory(once thought the PDJC) will be going to Epsom.
AOB in his Racing Post Stable tour said of Armory “I think he will get further than a mile and either the French or English Derby will be his option after the Irish Guineas”
The more I look at Armory‘s profile, the more I like it. He went the same route as Anthony VD, Tyros-Futurity-National and although his form isn’t as good, in this field it looks more than capable of winning this derby, which is seriously lacking in quality this year(based on what we’ve seen). I keep watching back the Irish 2000 Guineas and he was definitely being trialed for something there, one crack of the whip under no pressure he still came home pretty strong and that was first time out. AOBs will improve for that run almost a given usually.
I had a little bit more on at 25/1 today, just waiting on any news about his target and hoping it’s Epsom.
Vatican City was also very impressive that day, but AOB interestingly in his stable tour said “they won’t be a rush to step him up in trip”…..He’s fav for the Irish Derby though at the moment, possible they will go with Innisfree there if he’s made it in time. I would definitely be interested if VC goes to Epsom though, I think that Irish 2000 Guineas could be pretty hot form this season.
Once raced at 3, AOB improvers could be the way to go in this Derby. Mogul looked very heavy at Ascot, he’s definitely going to improve, just as mentioned already whether it’s in time for the Derby or not.
English King for me is possible, but he was for sure entitled to look good against those horses at Lingfield. Look at the form afterwards last week at Ascot it’s pretty horrible and he fails on a 20 year + Dam stat. His Dam did nothing of any note.
Military March I just can’t like. Is he bred for the Derby? Maybe. He looked too slow in the Guineas to me, is there enough speed in it with Danehill or is he just too slow? Finishing nearly 4L 4th, with an RPR of 112 isn’t the usual Guineas-Derby horse.
The last Guineas placed winners of the Derby were much better.
2018 – Masar (RPR117) – 3rd beaten 1.75L
2014 – Australia 122 – 3rd beaten .75L
2008 – New Approach 121 – 2nd beaten 1.75L
2006 – Sir Percy 120 – 2nd beaten 2.5LEminent has a similar form look to him, 4th in the Guineas, beaten 3.5L (RPR 112), then finished 6th in the poorest Derby for 20 years.
Kameko, just looked an all out Miler to me, possibly 10F, but he’s going to be vulnerable to a strong stayer in the derby you would think.
The rest don’t really seem good enough. If Armory goes to Epsom, he will become quite a sizeable bet for me now, I’m just waiting and waiting and resisting the temptation to go in more and more!
Military March does not have a similar form look to Eminent.
Eminent had a prep before the Guineas, Military March used the Guineas to prep for the Derby.
Eminent was drawn next to the winner in the Guineas.
Military March was surrounded by Mums Tipple, Royal Dornoch and Starcat. He had a poor draw nqat.
Throw in a jockey nut use to racing in Classics, lighting fast ground and a strong wind behind the horses, then Military March did really well for a horse that is bred for middle distances.
Ok, I had hoped he would finish the race more strongly but Crouch was very easy on him in the closing stages. He certainly was ridden to ‘run on past beaten horses’ as I had expected.
I’ve never taken any notice of RPRs in my punting life. Only official ratings, form history and my own eyes. Same with Timeform ratings never taken any notice. I’ve noticed highest RPRs on races on Saturdays attached to rags that didn’t come anywhere in the race.
Military March mentioned as too slow. Unsurprising over a mile. Let’s see what he can do in the race he been aimed at since last Autumn.
People have their own systems that’s fair enough Mike, but taking note of RPRs has picked me the last two Derby winners at 25/1 and 8/1, this years 2000 Guineas winner at 16/1 and got me 6 out of 8 Group 1s in profit at Ascot last week.
It’s a very good guide and there is so much data to use in horse racing that by not using it to guide what we also watch with our eyes is almost betting blind for me. Trends are very strong in group 1s, if we interpret them, in the right way, they work well for me.
Eminent has exactly the same RPR from the 2000 Guineas and same distance beat as Military March BB, I’d say that was pretty similar myself. I didn’t say it was exactly the same.
New Approach, Australia and Sir Percy were all first time out and ran a much better Guineas trial than MM. For anyone saying he ran a good trial for the derby, he didn’t. Beaten too far, poor rating, weak at the finish.
Has any derby winner that ran in the Guineas been weak at the finish? I doubt it.
The time of this years Guineas was quicker which would suggest the going was firmer than most years which favours the speedier types. I don’t think MM will win the Derby but I think taking the above into consideration he didn’t run a bad race.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I don’t bet blind and i don’t use RPRs. Just coz I don’t use RPRs doesn’t mean I bet blind. My selections may be high in the RPRs anyway using my own form study but I just don’t use them when judging races. I’m assuming Palace Pier wouldn’t have been highest RPR going from a handicap to a group 1 last week.
Looks like it’s helped you in some group 1s anyway.
It’s definitely not about picking the highest rated on RPR for me, I just look at the trends of the race over the last 20 years and work out the profile of the horse that wins and spot the patterns over time.
But I can’t work out the patterns without watching it and forming my opinion on the form, so I can also spot when I think the ratings are out.
Not saying you were betting blind just that if I didn’t use them it would be much much harder for me.
RPRs are not for everyone I can understand that. In the derby 18/20 past winners of it had recorded either the best or second best RPR in the field, that’s amazingly strong. The only exceptions were in poor renewals and this one looks another one this year.
Military March is up there on RPR, I just don’t think he’s going to be good enough/quick enough. His full brother was running over 2miles.
People say he’s bred for the derby, I’m not sure he is.
MM’s sire won the Derby and dam placed in both the English and Irish oaks. Bred for the job alrite.
Doesn’t necessarily create the right profile of a derby winner. Needs to have the right amount of speed in it. His brother was running over 14/16F at the best of his form. If it was as simple of putting an oaks winner with a derby winner it would’ve happened all the time.
New Approach wasn’t slow. That side of the family has speed like Dawn Approach. I would say his breeding is encouraging for middle distances. Whether he will come in 1st place we shall have to wait and see.
Nothing like a trumpet here Frenchy! Rprs are useful once you get used to them like all figures. Russian Emperor recorded 111? Armory’s highest is 111 too? Yes on the form i’d say he’s a bit ahead with grade 1 placings etc. He unexposed at the middle distances, but not as unexposed in general?
Armory is 55s for the Derby on Betfair btw if you want to take a bit of that- seems big if he was to go.
He’s 7s for the Irish Derby, but some firms haven’t him priced? So not sure what way he stands towards that.
Though he shaped well in the messy race and was tenderly handled as u say.
On Military March, i do see where you are coming from Frenchy, Clongowes was a complete boat.
New Approach wasn’t slow Mike but he does produce horses with a degree of stamina, and when the mare is middle distance + has produced a few slow individuals it might be a fair point.
Interesting debate though to watch play out. Almigwhar looked a rocket too.
I like Highland Chief as a horse. Not sure he’d be good enough here all the same, but hope they give him a run anyway for Rossa Ryan’s sake.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Definitely not blowing my own trumpet Jack, that’s not my style at all, more about defending the methodology of RPRs. If people are clever enough and have the time to work out their own race ratings, I have nothing but respect for them, but otherwise, there is a perfectly good system in place already that does all the work for us.
As with all data, it’s about how we interpret it, I don’t use it blind. Certainly not. It’s not about picking the best-rated, it’s a system in place that helps us measure a horses current form against another one. If people can do that just off the naked eye, then fair play to them! A bit of both I would say is the best way to form study?
With the Derby, this year, that trend(about 18/20 winners being from the best two RPRs) might not hold up, because the line up is weak. The 2 years that trend’s been broken has been in the two weakest renewals. In short, anything can win this derby right now and I’ll be looking for a lot of value somewhere.
But not blowing my own trumpet, there is a losing run just around the corner probably anyway!
With AOBs the scope to improve is often the same at 3 years old, it’s like a new slate for the season. They can really improve from first to second run, regardless of how many times they’ve run at 2. In fact I’d rather have an AOB that has more proven form at 2 as well. The majority of his Classic winners from the derby and guineas have proven 2year old form.
With Military March, whether we use the actual RPR or naked eye it will tell us much the same thing anyway.
By RPR
His racing post rating(112) is well below the previous 4 Guineas runners than won the Derby.Naked Eye
He was beaten by much further than those 4
He was not very strong at the finish. In fact he looked completely gone.
Masar – Strong at the finish
Australia – Strong at the finish
New Approach – Strong at the finish
Sir Percy – Strong at the finishWe can argue the way the race was run all day, but I wouldn’t say Masar was in the right spot 2 years ago, I wouldn’t say Sir Percy was necessarily in the right spot either. Yes, it was also a fast Guineas in the middle of the race, but it wasn’t the fastest time compared to those other 4, so we could go round and round arguing the form there, I’d rather look at the facts above.
Then throw in the ‘He’s bred for the derby” quote that gets thrown around like he’s some dream derby breed from heaven and we can pick holes in that as well as his brother was a boat, as you say!
Add in he’s trained by SBS whose done nothing of any note with 3-year-olds for about 20 years and I just can’t warm to him personally.
He may well go onto win the derby, its not a strong year by any means and he has the scope to improve for sure. I’ve actually been trying to like him for weeks now, based on his Autumn Stakes run being such a decent RPR in the field, but I just keep finding ways to not like him!
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