Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Derby 2020
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December 8, 2019 at 23:29 #1476922
A shame nobody here noticed Waldkönig’s first appearance last week. It was a dark evening on polytrack, but his run was the brighter and very impressive for me. He will win the forthcoming Epsom Derby with a pile of German stamina on his dam side which results in pure class mixed with good old Kingman
Waldkönig 24/1 with 50€December 9, 2019 at 00:29 #1476925Wow..Waldkonig was seriously impressive and I completely missed him.
Looks like Johnny G has another Classic contender on his hands if this horse progresses through the winter and can’t wait to see him turn out at Newmarket around Craven timeThanks Hein for pinpointing that amazing run and best of luck…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...December 9, 2019 at 01:42 #1476926He has a high knee action so won’t appreciate fast summer ground.
May be a Derby doubt therefore.December 9, 2019 at 23:15 #1477002I did see the race Hein.
Was a very good performance, reminded me of a horse called Sea the Moon who I believe was German trained? You’d expect improvement as he looked green although it maybe his action as Mike pointed out. Still a very exciting prospect.Blackbeard to conquer the World
December 10, 2019 at 14:15 #1477034Your comparison honours him Nathan, as STM was our last mentionable Derby winner in 2014, and now he has become quite a good new stallion. You probably meant their running styles, since from their bloodlines they have nothing in common, as I said Waldkönig has all the finest German stamina on his dam side with the likes of Monsun, Acatenango, Wurftaube etc.
To be honest I don’t believe too much in “knee action”, and I am very excited to see Waldkönig again and hope JG brings this colt’s very best to light next season!December 24, 2019 at 17:37 #1478026Gary Nutting has tipped up Military March on his ATR ante post column.
May 21, 2020 at 21:12 #1488754There’s ridiculous value all over this derby market for me. Pinatubo who in my opinion won’t even run here and is a certainty not to stay even if he does, is making the market.
Al Suhail is 33/1 has decent form, shows decent speed but is also bred to stay 12f and is highly likely to be Charlie Applebys number 1 derby horse.
CA confirmed this week that’s his target
Mogul at 14s and Innisfree 25s are my other antiposts and I took a little bit on Al Aasy also at 25s after someone gave me a stat about Sea The Stars classic Epsom winners both having only one run as two year olds so maybe something in that gamble this week as he was 66/1 a week ago.
Mogul full brother to Japan, Ryan Moore said he thinks he’s a classic horse and AOB likely number 1 string trading still at 10/1, that could be massive soon once Military March bombs in the Guineas and Pinatubo gets scratched. Wonder how the prep is going to go though, there appears not to be any derby trials in Ireland?
May 25, 2020 at 11:35 #1488877Derby Trial on the 8th, one of first races back now! I like Innisfree a little too Frenchy.
Can also see what you mean about Mogul, he’s definitely the hyped horse from their yard and a nice expensive pedigree for people to mull over. On his actual form, he wouldn’t standout to me right now anyway and at 10/1 in general i’d leave him. However, he definitely has probably the most potential to shorten up a lot.
Highest Ground for Stoute also looks one with a lot of potential.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 25, 2020 at 14:49 #1488884Frenchy, why do you think Military March will bomb in the Guineas?
May 25, 2020 at 21:05 #1488916Ah great Jack, is that the Derrinstown Stud trial? Should put him nicely toward Epsom.
Re Military March, his only form is a group 3 soft ground win and suddenly he’s the derby fav, I find it a bit odd. They pulled clear but there wasn’t anything really in behind and he was actually outpaced in the race by Al Suhail initially as well so I don’t think he looks very speedy for the Guineas Plus he’s trained by SBS who has quite a bit of prove these days as a classic trainer. He’d need to finish in the first 4 of the Guineas to be a likely derby winner and there’s little market support in him currently. I can seeing him plodding on late in 7th/8th very easily.
Although obviously that’s just a hunch at this stage! Plenty of people really like him.
May 25, 2020 at 22:16 #1488918why have they entered Pinatubo in the Epsom Derby.
I reckon he will be a great miler and I think the 1m 4f is not up his street.
Am I losing the plot ?
Colosus
May 26, 2020 at 00:02 #1488926Pinatubo is number 140 and is one of only two course winners along with Sir Mark Prescott’s Bodyline number 10.
May 26, 2020 at 00:23 #1488927Lets look back at the Curragh two runs ago. He will ride him similar to that in the 2000 Guineas.
Arizona was 9 lengths and a neck behind in the Curragh. He is 8 to 1 to turn the next champion over in the 2000 GuineasNot a hope
Bookies are running scared. That’s why he is a terrible 10/11 in places.
He will blow them away. He will come come cruising at the 2 pole and press the button, Buick will squeeze him up and win how he likes.
There is nobody that will go with him.
If you ask me the sponsors should have the winning cloth ready with his name on it.
Its a four gone conclusion if he runs.
The mafia are probably buying laser rifles and looking at vantage points around the track.
That’s the only thing that will stop him.
When Colosus is strong get on
ok
Colosus
May 26, 2020 at 11:07 #1488930Will be interesting to see how Military March copes in the Guineas.
May 26, 2020 at 15:07 #1488952Thanks Frenchy for the reply. Unlike you, I believe Military March has a very good future. I was very taken with his Autumn Stakes win. I think he will excel over 12furlongs. He’s got the looks, the breeding and an excellent attitude. He earned a very good speed rating for that Autumn Stakes win and was very strong on the line.
Mike, I’m very intrigued to see how he copes with likely fast ground. He moves like he enjoys a bit of cut in the ground. It’s not an overly round action so he could get away with it, but it is a worry for both the Guineas and the Derby.
May 26, 2020 at 15:22 #1488954I saw a William Haggas interview that Nick Luck did recently.
He said, with what looked like a hint of a smile and a glint in his eye, when asked by Nick Luck if the rumours were true that Al Aasy was the best horse in his yard, that he thinks he could be very good.
So a dark one for the race I would say.
May 26, 2020 at 16:40 #1488957Mogul starting off in the Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown on Tuesday June 9
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