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Derby 2018

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  • #1356116
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    Jack, the Usain Bolt analogy would, I think, be more appropriate if considered in light of him following up a 100m flat track race with a hilly event over 150m.

    #1356117
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    You are right – he underperformed compared with his Guineas run but I don’t think there was much wrong with the horse save the track.

    On that we can agree, Joni. Kev also has an excellent point. Many paddock watchers suggest SW was not handling the prelims as well as he should’ve – edgy. So it seems he found the whole Epsom experience against him, on and off the course.

    Saw Jamie Lynch’s analysis of closing fractions on ATR. Times put up by all the first five home from the path 3f144yrds out to the finish.
    (From memory) Saxon Warrior only around 0.7 seconds slower than Masar. Considering he didn’t get an absolutely clear run through then those times strongly suggest stamina was not an issue.

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    #1356118
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    Joe, my analogy was just about your point in general about being at ones best and still underperforming!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1356119
    nwalton
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    James Willoughby doing a good piece on RUK now

    #1356121
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    Joe, you are over-complicating things.
    Comparisons are made all the time between all distances, whether by official BHA, Timeform or amateur handicappers. They give a rating that shows how good the horse ran to in every race… and all those ratings can be compared. Saxon Warrior achieved a worse rating in the Derby than he did in the 2000 Guineas. Therefore, in comparison with Saxon Warrior’s best form in the 2000 Guineas he underperformed in the Derby. That is what’s meant by people using the word in this instance.

    You might be right that Saxon Warrior ran the best race he could given the exact specific circumstances of the Derby and therefore did not underperform compared to those exact specific circumstances. However, the point is you’re talking about a totally different definition to the one meant by the way people are using the word underperformed in this instance.

    The terminology is not wrong, it’s just a different meaning to what you’re using.
    Arguing that he did not underperform by using a different meaning of the word seems pedantic.
    As you say yourself:
    If the point you’re making is that a horse is not as good at a particular trip/track/surface as he is elsewhere, that’s a completely different argument.
    It’s you who seems to be saying that it is the same argument, Joe; not us.

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    #1356130
    LD73
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    • Total Posts 4130

    My guess is that Dee Ex Bee will be the one horse out of the first 4 home that will remain running at 12F (you might even see him go 14F) whereas the other will all drop down to 10F and I can see Saxon Warrior going back to 8F.

    Masar & Roaring Lion I see going Eclipse, Juddmonte, Irish Champion & Champion route – they may look at the KG for Masar if the ground is quick but I can’t see an Arc on softish ground playing to his strengths, the same could be said for an Irish Derby.

    Saxon Warrior to my eye went from travelling well down the hill to being pushed along off the home turn and just seemingly not being able to quicken up (with RL & Masar) but just maintaining the same pace whilst struggling with the undulations and camber up the straight (he was hanging with his head slight on his right hand side and tongue hanging out).

    Much has been said about his pedigree with the likes of Dancing Rain & Dr Devious showing up further back on his dam side but his full brother was best at 8F, his dam (Maybe) was also best at 8F, her two full sisters were best at 8F and another half sister was placed over 6F.

    I think his natural ability enabled him to finish where he did over a trip in excess of his best – won’t be surprised if they give him another try at 12F but it could be that them hanging the potential Triple Crown winner moniker on him may have slightly clouded their judgement of him.

    I personally see him as a miler and that particular division is wide open looking for a star at the moment.

    #1356157
    Jonibake
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    In Dante’s Inferno, hell is depicted as 9 concentric circles of torment located within the earth. In these circles,Dante and Virgil are forced to fight 3 beasts in the shape of a she-wolf, lion and leopard. They must pass by the screams of the uncommitted as loathsome maggots and worms drink the putrid blood and pus of sinners. They are stung by swarms of angry hornets and wasps whilst watching the glutinous wallow in a vile slush of ceaseless, foul, icy rain. They have to wade through the swampy, stinking waters of the River Styx as the wrathful fight each other on the surface of the slime before encountering the heretics, forever being burnt alive in flaming tombs. They encounter murderers, war makers, chiefs and tyrants immersed in a boiling river of blood and fire before doing battle with Geryon, a fearsome winged monster with 3 heads and 3 conjoined bodies and the tail of a scorpion.

    I can guarantee that none of these despicable torments are a PATCH on having to argue with Ginge…..

    :yes:

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1356160
    ham
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    Read all of that joni thinking you posted that by accident, was worth the read…LOL

    #1356161
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Post of the year that Joni…. :yes:

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1356163
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Strange Joni; I had exactly the same thoughts about Joe… LOL

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    #1356164
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Joe wouldn’t argue with you though Ginge
    he says so himself in his signature

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1356165
    Avatar photoDegaussed
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    James Willoughby doing a good piece on RUK now

    Think this might be my favourite show on TV. Usually very, very good, and potentially brilliant if the right guest is on.

    #1356168
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Joe wouldn’t argue with you though Ginge
    he says so himself in his signature

    Joe has many long arguements with me, Nathan.
    In contrast with some. ;-)

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    #1356176
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    :unsure:

    #1356192
    Avatar photoBigG
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    I’m not taking sides, I’m just reveling in the thought of Ginger and
    Joe fighting through the nine concentric circles of torment. Toe to
    toe even putting the rumble in the jungle to shame. I just love this
    place :yahoo:

    #1356199
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    LOL

    You lot want to make mountains out of mole hills, or infernos from smoulders.

    As far as I am concerned Joe and I are mates who can have strong differences of opinion without falling out – unlike some.

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    #1356200
    Avatar photoBigG
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    • Total Posts 14567

    A touch of poetic licence used Ginge, you can’t let the facts get in the way of
    a good old fashioned unfounded tongue wagging. Anyway, I’m well aware the two of
    you are thick as thieves and the forum is all the better for it. I was going to
    mention Statler and Waldorf, but I think I’ll quit when I’m ahead B-)

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