Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Derby 2018
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Gingertipster.
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- June 2, 2018 at 17:02 #1355908
Inclined to believe he didn’t really get home – Ryan was niggling at him as they turned in and even though he got blocked (good race riding from the other jocks) there was no hint of the change of pace that we saw in the guineas. Unless something comes to light I would be inclined to drop him back in trip, maybe even back to 1m.
Fair play to both the first two as I wasn’t sure either would stay the trip but I am also inclined to believe that 10F might turn out to be their best trip as well -the first four seemed to hold station for the last 1.5F as neither were pulling clear but the 3rd and 4th were not closing either.
Could be a quite a difficult race to assess and put numbers on going forward – stand by for the usual talk of it being an average Derby.
June 2, 2018 at 17:04 #1355909Sandown will be chuffed. Last year’s Solario: Masar 1st, Romanised 2nd.
June 2, 2018 at 17:04 #1355911I thought he’d win at halfway, he seemed settled & came down the hill okay. He got blocked a couple of times yes, but when the daylight was there, he could not pick up. He was losing ground on the horses in front of him half a furlong out.
June 2, 2018 at 17:05 #1355912Well done Masar supporters

Happy with the run of the second!!
Not sure the third fourth or fifth truly stayed!!
Two furlongs out the two travelling best were Hazapour and Masar and for me Hazapour patently didn’t get home.
Roaring Lion could do with going back to ten furlongs for me and the same applies to the fourth and fifth!!June 2, 2018 at 17:06 #1355913What do people expect Moore to do on a Guineas winner running in the Derby?
Go for home on the home turn?
He’s a horse whose asset at this trip was always going to be speed. Was never going to be asked for full effort until two out.
He found nowt when in the clear.
May be he didn’t stay but imo beaten before that should’ve come in to play.
Big horse who hasn’t got the best of actions for Epsom.
If a good moving big horse like Cracksman didn’t act around the course, what about Saxon Warrior?
Value Is EverythingJune 2, 2018 at 17:12 #1355915I’d go for the Irish derby if I was the trainer of Saxon. When you get blocked not once but 3 times and are beaten only 4 lengths it’s not conclusive enough to say he didn’t stay. He was held at the finish but not fading like a definite non stayer.
If he ends up non staying with a clear run at the Curragh then fair enough but if it were me i wouldn’t be satisfied with that.
Then again I’m not the trainer lol.June 2, 2018 at 17:18 #1355916He’ll be ‘eating up fine’… And back in the St James’s Palace I’d bet. What is it just over two weeks?
June 2, 2018 at 17:24 #1355918I’d go for the Irish derby if I was the trainer of Saxon. When you get blocked not once but 3 times and are beaten only 4 lengths it’s not conclusive enough to say he didn’t stay.
Being on a Guineas winner, Ryan was probably happy enough to allow others first and second run, down the straight, expecting him to pick up in the closing stages… But nothing forthcoming.
Agreed it’s early to say SW didn’t stay. Going ok early I thought, but after a mile/9f of the race wasn’t travelling like you’d expect a Guineas winner. Neither did the favourite fall away like a real non-stayer (Hazipour).
Value Is EverythingJune 2, 2018 at 17:25 #1355919He never made any ground when he got out mike, was staying on same pace, signalling that he had nothing left to give.
He will come back to 10 or 8 the latter more likely
June 2, 2018 at 17:26 #1355920The winner and the third handled the track. I would doubt it be confident of this form being confirmed. Hard to tell if sw stayed. I’d go for the eclipse with him next. Doubt it will be seen as a top Derby in tears to come. I’d fancy roaring lion at the curragh.
June 2, 2018 at 17:30 #1355922Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior started their runs from the same point, but the former has beaten the latter by two and a half lengths. The consensus on Roaring Lion is that he didn’t stay, so I can’t have Saxon Warrior staying that trip. Running him in the Irish Derby might work if it’s a field like last season in which Ballydoyle can dictate the fractions and make it a very slowly run race and turn it into a sprint from home, but that seems unlikely.
Imo, Saxon Warrior goes St James Palace Stakes > Sussex > International > Irish Champion > Champion Stakes.
June 2, 2018 at 17:39 #1355924Having watched the reply he was already being pushed along as they crossed the path in the straight before he got squeezed, when he got room it was noticeable that he was carring his head to the right and his tongue was hanging out.
When Ryan gave him a crack with the whip in his right hand there was a marked shift to his left (this also happened in the guineas as well) and whilst the camber didn’t help horses tend to go that way when they get tired as well. Have a feeling it was his natural ability that kept him as close to the front three as he was but I also feel that Roaring Lion’s stamina emptied in the last 75yds as Dee Ex Bee was pulling away from him after looking booked for 3rd.
On a side note, with the way the ground dried out to good, I bet O’Brien is ruing his decision to switch Rostropovich to the French Derby, which will be run on soft ground.
June 2, 2018 at 17:42 #1355925Lays Young Rascal, Delano Roosevelt and Masar and all to a place as well.
What price did you lay Masar at Steve ?
June 2, 2018 at 18:02 #1355931Well done Ginger, you spotted that one some time back. A fair few opinions
about whether the favourite stayed or not, personally I didn’t get the impression
that he didn’t stay, I thought he was keeping on well enough but couldn’t produce
that kick. I’m certainly not saying he would have won, but I think if he had seen
daylight earlier he would have been a bit closer. Too many unknowns to write him off
as a stayer yet, he did sweat up a bit, but then so did others, and he may well not
have liked the undulations of Epsom. Maybe none of those things mattered, but until
he has another go, perhaps at the Irish version, I’m not for writing him off just yetJune 2, 2018 at 18:22 #1355934If Coolmore had another 12 furlong colt, I don’t think they’d go for the Irish Derby; but do they?
Therefore, Saxon Warrior may turn up there. However, with him losing today the St Leger is out (even if they do believe he stayed) and may not want to take on team Gosden either if the British pair of four year olds return to form. Mile division nowhere near as strong so may be he will return to that distance.Value Is EverythingJune 2, 2018 at 18:45 #1355941Aiden has spoken. He’s inclined to agree with me and looking at the Irish derby saying horses can leave their run at Epsom behind and today wasn’t his day.
Capri did similar last year. 6th not quickening late on then won the Irish derby.
June 2, 2018 at 18:48 #1355942Aiden quote…
Im over the moon for Sheikh Mohammed, Godolphin and Charlie Appleby for Masar’s win. I wouldn’t be making excuses for Saxon Warrior. We’ll take him home and see how he is. Everything out there today at Epsom might just have been new to them and it would have been a big shock to him coming to this track, but I don’t know. I’ve seen it happen to horses where they leave a run here behind them very quick. When Ryan dropped down him, he just kept on going without really showing a turn of foot. It was a whole new experience with him and I suppose he found everything a bit different. He is a baby horse and it is only his fifth run – we’ll look forward to the next time. We’ll see how he is but we could head to the Irish Derby. He has run on very easy, uncomplicated tracks and this is the first complicated track he has had to handle. Saxon Warrior might have just got in awe of everything, but I wouldn’t take anything away from the winner – he just didn’t fire. His next run might tell us a lot. Stall one was probably not ideal, but I couldn’t use it as an excuse.
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