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The replay of the race on ITV, they showed from the over head camera. Saxon Warrior was losing ground markedly on the three in front of him close home, without question. Masar was along side Saxon coming down the hill around Tattenham corner, yet Masar left him for dead within a furlong. Saxon did not have any change of gear at the trip, to my eyes he patently did not stay. A closer look at Deep Impacts top runners as I’d mentioned before on this thread, shows that a hell of a lot of the good ones are best at a mile, or 1m2f max. The sire may have stayed well himself, but he is not Galileo when it comes to imparting the needed stamina into his offspring.
They are the masters of spin Mike, they will blame it on the track, not stamina for his future stallion career, but I’d happily bet we never see Saxon at 1m4f again personally.
I don’t lay horses Botchy, it’s purely theoretical.
Yes, I did get Masar completely wrong. I’ve admitted that already. I made an excellent call on the other two Young Rascal and Delano Roosevelt though, noting that neither looked to have the pace for the race.
I saw potential in Masar early, just not at 12F. If anyone can find the Solario thread they will see that I was confident and tipped him up as a good bet for that race.
I think it was our old friend The Judge who was keen on Masar in last year’s Lagardere, where I was on Olmedo. Both colts were bested by Happily that day, perhaps not being as suited by the very soft ground on the day. One is now a French Guineas winner and the other the Derby winner.
Yes, I sure got the winner way, way, way wrong but I got plenty other things correct. My 1-2-3 filled spots 3-4-5 and the general consensus is that all three of them just didn’t stay.
The Racing Post put Masar up 5 lbs to 123 and they are probably stuck with that because of where Dee Ex Bee has finished. He came in with an OR of 110 and was having his 9th start, pretty exposed and with Young Rascal expected to confirm form from the Chester Vase.
My own feeling after the race was to give Masar 120, the same figure Ruler Of The World got in his season. People can make their own minds up if they think the form will stack at 12F or not as the season progresses.
If there is one outstanding memory from this year’s Derby, it has to be how badly wrong I got Masar. It stands above all other considerations and I suspect Sheikh Mohammed is laughing his tits off as we speak. In the interview he probably said “Hing the money and the prestige, we’re paying for the Caution banter”
How did your own bets get on Botchy? Mine were Tom Tit!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Workmanlike Guineas winner fails in the Derby. Nothing to see here. Move on.
BHA handicappers rated the race on Roaring Lion at 118 despite the fact he looked a non stayer. They also say SW ‘under performed’ which takes us back to my old bete noire: on what basis did the horse under perform? Why did it not ‘run its race’? Perhaps on the basis that the Derby is not run over a mile? (I did pose them this question on twitter but, predictably, got no response).
Next thing we know Harry Angel will run in the Ascot Gold Cup and will be lapped and the BHA head of handicapping will say he under performed.
Blimey Steve he only asked! Don’t take it so personal. If he hadn’t, I would’ve asked what price.
I don’t lay horses but I couldn’t have had Masar with counterfeit today. My comments on the race beforehand on him were that I didn’t fancy him to stay the trip and Godolphin struggle in the classics. Though I did think it was the first Guineas favourite to go off 16s for the Derby before.
Rascal didn’t handle the track for me. Apparently Hoiles said in race commentary for ITV the same thing. Looked off balance at Tattenham Corner and struggled in the straight imo. Could be a Leger horse.
For what it’s worth, in running at the track, me and many around me thought Saxon was not quite himself and looked beat for me about 500m out when he found nothing.
Finally, well done to Ginge with Masar.
Huge congrats to those who backed Masar. He’s one of those for me – every time I back him he loses, every time I don’t he wins! Really pleased for Charlie Appleby. Seems such a nice guy.
For me it was very simple – Saxon Warrior hated that track. A big horse like Cracksman, he was never balanced down the straight. I wouldn’t write him off. Roaring Lion didn’t quite get home but I doubt he’d beat the winner over 10f anyway.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I don’t see why Roaring Lion‘s Derby performance shouldn’t be rated a little higher than his run in the Dante.
Which performances are better?
Beating Mildenberger 4 1/2 lengths, Zabriskie a total of 5 3/4, Merlin Magic a total of 6 and Nordic Lights total 6 1/4 in a Group 2 at York?Or
Beating Saxon Warrior 2 1/2, Hazapour a total of 5 and Delano Roosevelt a total of 9 1/2 lengths in a Group 1 at Epsom? With Zabriskie this time unable to give his running well below form in last).
This is only the second month of Roaring Lion’s three year old career and he’d improved for each run – Craven to 2000 and 2000 to Dante (progressive). It’s just that – given what happened in the final furlong today – there’s every reason to believe he’ll be capable of even better once returned to 1m2f or possibly a lesser test of stamina at 12f.
Dee Ex Bee also put up by far his best previous performance last time out, a race that tested his stamina more than any (up to that point). And that despite having the worst of the draw at Chester and racing wide off the home turn when running today’s third favourite Young Rascal to 1/2 a length. Dee Ex Bee’s Derby chance (like the winner and third) under-estimated by the betting and every reason to believe – given another stamina test like here – DXB would improve again.
Masar is by a Derby winner in New Approach who was himself by the Derby winner and great sire Galileo. Masar’s dam Kwahlah also won a Derby (and Oaks) in Dubai in March of 2011; ie very early on in her three year old career and at the time Timeform believed she’d likely develop in to an Oaks candidate (stay this trip). Especially as she was by Sea The Stars’s sire Cape Cross out of an 11f winner Villarrica… Villarrica was herself out of Oaks 3rd Melikah who’s a half sister to… (wait for it, wait for it)… both Derby winners Sea The Stars and Galileo… Masar being inbred to Arc winner Urban Sea. Melikah being by another Derby winner, Lammtarra. Lammtarra in turn by (yes you guessed it) Derby winner Nijinsky and out of an Oaks winner (albeit on disqualification) Snow Bride. So although beforehand not absolutely certain to stay today’s Classic trip, there was surely a very good chance of doing so and – given all the Derby and Oaks bloodlines – also a fairly good chance of improving a little too?
Personally, I don’t see any reason why Masar can not be rated at least an average Derby winner (and I mean that as a compliment) until anything subsequently tells us otherwise.
Value Is EverythingCome on MOM, see the narrative will you. Botchy only ever asks questions of me when he is looking to undermine me.
That’s the trouble with forums. Some users just don’t see the pattern.
Having paid zero interest to my input in the lead up to the race. He suddenly is very interested in the sole aspect of how badly I may have been burned on the race. That is not curiosity. It is simply making sure that the forum know that I got it wrong.
What do you mean, “Don’t take it personally”? It’s a question directed solely at me. How can it not be personal?
Come on people, get with reality please.
I never go around criticising other peoples bets, yet it seems like it’s free for all to point out my losers and double underline them for some people. Maybe if I started calling out every loser YOU post, you might just get a bit dicked off about it.
Think about it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think SW in all probability “under-performed”, Joe. Otherwise – considering the distances he was beaten at Epsom and those he beat in the Guineas it must have been not just “workmanlike” but a poor Guineas… And yet Guineas 5th Roaring Lion has gone on to win the Dante impressively before going close in the Derby despite probably not staying… And Guineas 3rd (should’ve been second had he raced in the centre) Masar actually won the Derby! Yes, I think both of those horses improved, but (for me) it still registers as a plus for Guineas form… I do think Saxon Warrior would probably have needed to improve on Newmarket to confirm places with Masar, but I don’t believe SW is truly 4 1/2 lengths inferior.
As to the basis of why Saxon Warrior under-performed? First thing is I don’t think he under-performed as much as some might think, may be by 3 1/2 to 4 lengths, that’s all. Reasons, well possibly didn’t quite stay, but I believe at this stage the most likely is the horse’s size and action. Being a big horse is one thing, a big horse with a slightly rounded action isn’t ideal for Epsom. Immaturity could also have played a part. So there are plenty of conceivable theories as to why he (to a degree at least) “under-performed”.
Value Is EverythingWell had Botchy not asked the question, I’d have asked what you laid it at.
And you’d have snapped at me like you did him.
Had it been anyone else saying they were gonna lay Masar, I and Botchy (I assume), would have asked at what price in the aftermath. Listing all your bets is as though you are taking it as a personal insult. It isn’t. It’s a fair question on a racing forum where there’s lots of betting talk to ask someone what the price was that they laid the winner at.
It really isn’t a big deal.
I side with you on a fair chunk of stuff on here but I think you’re reading into this one way too much tbh Steve.
Some good points in there Ginge.
I really think the draw played a huge factor too. A stat of 0 winners from 104 starts over 1m 4f in double figure fields are epsom is a damning statistic. It certainly made me know I wouldn’t be playing him at odds on. I’d been tempted to have a bit on him in case my Rascal bet went pear shaped (like it did) but the draw was enough to put me off at odds on.
It’s a bit of a strange one. The Chester form was turned on its head … but then, Epsom is an awkward track. Horses for courses.
Regarding Saxon Warrior, maybe he just isn’t the superstar that everyone’s been raving on about. Yes, I too got caught up in the hype about him. Someone on ITV even mentioned that SW was better than Nijinsky! … Really?
Perhaps Saxon Warrior is Churchill MK2 
I was adamant after Chester that Rascal would enjoy the galloping nature of Epsom.
But he hasn’t handled Tattenham Corner and lost far too much ground on the two in front of him swinging for home (Roaring Lion and Dee Ex Bee). I don’t think he got balanced in the straight but he did run on a tiny bit but far too late.
I’m still in the state I was trackside – confusion about Masar. I really wouldn’t have had him anywhere near the front to win going away. He’s got better the further they’ve gone and I expected the complete opposite on that front.
Sometimes, you have to hold your hands up when you get it wrong and I’ve done that here.
Think about it, Steve.
Is it likely that every single person you’re falling out with on this forum are truly against you?
Are you really that important to everyone?
Or
Is it just one person who’s seeing things that in reality just are not there?Has it happened on other forums?
When you have a strong opinion or difference of opinion you always see it as solely your opinion.
When someone strongly disagrees with your opinion, you see that as “criticising” your opinion.
In a way, yes you do criticise other people’s bets, remember War Command?
I didn’t mind, to me it’s just a difference of opinion. You on the other hand saw my equally robust defence of my beliefs as “criticism”. Whether we like it or not, any difference of opinion is in effect saying the other person is wrong/probably wrong. If you want to constantly see that as “criticism” entirely up to you. But it surely doesn’t do any good and as a consequence am concerned for your health. Try to think of every future comment in the best possible light instead of the worst. eg Couldn’t Botchy’s comment just be an enquirey? How was he to know your lays are just for fun? I didn’t. You also said about a Derby tricast and forecast earlier, were they only for fun too? It didn’t read that way.I know when we back a loser – particularly an ante-post bet at a big price which shortens to odds-on – we’re not always in the best of moods/can see things differently to usual. So I hope people can understand how you’re feeling right now and make allowances, Steve. But please don’t fall out with people over nothing.
Value Is EverythingWell had Botchy not asked the question, I’d have asked what you laid it at.
I wish you did.
Steve a couple of days ago we had a bit of banter about the Saxon Warrior video. Well i took it as banter, maybe you thought i was against Saxon Warrior because you had backed him or something. Saying that i also backed Saxon Warrior Ante Post, so i would of been wanting myself to lose as well.
If you think i am sat at home running around the house celebrating because you or anyone else here has lost money, that’s really weird.If i don’t win i’m happy someone else on here has had a bit of luck, even you believe it or not !
I will try to think more about what i say in future, sometimes i do put my thoughts into words the wrong way. I’ve always had problems saying what i mean.
Going back to the race. Watching SW was like watching a car racing round a bend on half a wheel. Ryan was constantly trying to keep him straight as he hung in to the camber. He was never balanced. His trainer and jockey are incredibly modest and gracious in defeat and did not want to detract from the winner but I would be very surprised if yesterday represented SW’s real ability. He probably isn’t a superstar but I think he will win more Group 1’s. He certainly doesn’t “stink” anyway!! :)
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
For anyone interested in the French Derby today there is a chance of the New Approach double with Hey Gaman running for James Tate. Narrowly pipped in the French Guineas he should stay and has form on softer ground. Dodgy draw but 18/1 is pretty good seeing as it doesn’t look the strongest of races.
I’m an idiot. I won money on the Derby, but no where near as much as I should have. I took a view straight after the 2000 (and mentioned it a few times on here) that Saxon was not going to be suited to Epsom. I won a tidy amount on him in the 2000, my plan was to lay the whole lot on him at odds on in the Derby. In the end because of the rain, I only laid him for half. Stupid mistake really, if Delano or Hazapour had won I’d have really been quids in. But my losing bets on them two, and the last minute place lay I did on Roaring Lion, meant I did not win as much as I should.
I feel like a complete wally, I should have just laid Saxon, and kept laying him.
Perhaps Saxon Warrior is Churchill MK2 
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