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Derby 2018

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  • #1355469
    TopValueTopValue
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    • Total Posts 6

    Knight To Behold

    Quickened mid-race and then at the end despite being keen (Lingfield trial). He has an engine alright and if they could get him into a rhythm at Epsom he could surprise here. I don’t think Dunlop is tilting at windmills and I think can knock on the door if all goes well.

    #1355470
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2614

    Saxon drawn in 1.

    The rascal drawn in 9.

    Saxon touches 13/8 on the day here I reckon lads.

    #1355472
    mickeyjp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 604

    I can’t see past saxon warrior. To win the guineas as he did while clearly not match fit said he won it with something in hand. It’s odds on he will stay and if so he is much the best horse in the race. I can see a nijinsky type performance. Only doubt would be if it came up soft. The price is irrelevant an expect he will be 4-6 by race start as the lads will be piling in as the stable has shown so much confidence in the horse. Let’s hope he is a superstar.

    #1355474
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 110

    This years Derby and Oaks has become a right minefield, especially with the current weather!

    I have had a double on Justify to win the Preakness and Saxon Warrior to win the Derby but really have no idea what will happen.

    If I were to have a bet today I would be having a punt on Dee Ex Bee each way at the prices. Yes, he clearly inst as good as some of these horses but at 33/1 I am willing to take the risk that he comes in the top 3.

    He has won at Epsom previously and also on soft ground so hes my play each way at the price.

    Good luck everyone. :good:

    #1355475
    wasps41
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1138

    Hope so MoM Nearly 11/8 on the machinevas I type

    #1355477
    PantsPants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 630

    Fascinating race. I’m on Hazapour at 16/1 and The Lion at 15/2, they’re currently going in opposite directions in the market due to the rain.

    If SW does go out to 13/8 then he’s backable but no shorter than that now draw and ground have gone against him.

    Am really sweet on Hazapour and he’s been the best backed horse all week 16’s – 8’s. Below is a quote from Dermot;

    ‘He’s a lovely horse to train. He is a stayer with speed and this has always been the plan. This horse has very similar characteristics to Harzand. He is very tough and is a very genuine colt. He is very adaptable ground-wise.’

    As we all know, you need a stayer with speed to win The Derby…I think this fellow will go close.

    #1355480
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    My Derby ratings, hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings.
    Some good years with these and some not so much.
    When there is an clear top rated the figures tend to be elongated as they are calculated comparatively within each section and weighted towards pedigree slightly. Not meant to represent the difference in pounds between runners but top rated converted towards the BHA 0-140 scale for easier reference. Just a bit of fun for me to calculate.

    I have backed SW in the Guineas/Derby double so hopefully he prevails. An unusually clear leader, in most years 2 or 3 pts between top and 2nd rated.

    Saxon Warrior 128
    Masar 112
    The Pentagon 105
    Roaring Lion 84
    Kni’ To Behold 84
    Zabriskie 84
    Young Rascal 77
    Hazapour 77
    Del’ Roosevelt 70
    Sevenna Star 70
    Kew Gardens 70
    Dee Ex Bee 63

    good luck

    #1355482
    HimselfHimself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3775

    Having also backed Oath to win the 1999 Derby from stall one , I would suggest that Ryan Moore follows Keiren Fallon’s lead and more or less replicates the path he took on Henry Cecil’s colt .

    Saxon Warrior all day long for me . :good:

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #1355484
    KevMcKevMc
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1221

    Odds against is madness for me, if he goes 13/8 it’s the bet of the season.
    Stall 1 is getting over-blown by miles.

    Andrew Cooper reported earlier Epsom have dodged all the rain today so far, fingers crossed this luck remains and we have nice GS ground come Saturday.

    #1355494
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Soft ground would be ideal for Young Rascal, a middle distance/stayer.

    Soft ground on its own wouldn’t worry me that much for Saxon Warrior. Stall 1 on its own wouldn’t worry me too much either. But Stall 1 on soft ground gives /Coolmore? It’s not that he doesn’t act on soft – it’s that stamina is likely to be tested and where a horse is drawn can sometimes make a difference.

    There’s always the chance one that ran at a mile last time out won’t settle if seeing too much daylight, so SW will in all probability be held up. Stall 1 means he’s more likely to be towards the inside towards the back… A position making unlucky in running more likely… Unless of course… Team Ballydoyle set a fast pace in order to provide more gaps and also to favour hold up horses… However, unfortunately a fast pace also favours stayers at the trip and SW’s asset (at 1m4f) is his speed/turn of foot.

    value is everything
    #1355505
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I don’t think the draw matters too much.

    Not many horses with Saxon Warrior’s class and a Guineas win in the bag have come out of trap 1 over the years. Not many Guineas winners also landed the Racing Post Trophy the season before, Camelot is the only horse I can recall and he went on to win the Derby.

    Saxon Warrior will surely be held up and surely the others from the stable can ensure he gets a clear passage from which to pounce, a bit like Yifter The Shifter at the Moscow Olympics.

    I see a bit of anxiety regarding Saxon Warrior being fast enough to win a Guineas. For me, there is the possibility that he won a poor Guineas.

    Coming into Newmarket there were voices regarding how good a race it was this season. Looking back now, was it a good renewal?

    Tip Two Win is the obvious question mark. Did he really improve 10 lbs?

    I reckon Masar ran well below his Craven form, and it was a combination of that and a better effort from Roaring Lion that closed the gap from the Craven. Roaring Lion then went on again in the Dante, probably reaching his true level for the first time this season.

    Gustav Klimt showed in the Irish version that he’s no world beater and Expert Eye looks a bust for now.

    Elarqam was rubbish in the Irish 2000 and there is a mystery because he was sound again the next morning and there was only a little bit of muck when they scoped him. Even before the Guineas there was speculation as to whether he wanted a bit further and the immediate talk after the Guineas was about the Dante. Even if we exclude all that, he had enough to prove coming into the race, having only won at group 3 level and in a yard with a drought at the top level.

    Saxon Warrior went into the 2000 Guineas as the only Group 1 winner in the race and he has managed to win it despite conceding the run to some and having doubts about his speed. Perhaps the class horse in the race won by dint of beating an average bunch. Maybe he will improve a good bit from that and he comes into the Derby as the only Group 1 winner in the race again. Perhaps he’ll be better at the trip than he is at a mile.

    There are always questions and most of the time we speculate on the answers. Here however, we know that Saxon Warrior is the CLASS in the race and that is the most important single factor in my opinion. On the potential negatives for him we have no real evidence that they exist. If we had seen hints it would be different but it’s only speculation really and I’d rather have proven class, especially when the others are dubious Group 1 quality.

    I would expect Saxon Warrior to travel well within himself in this company and if Ryan is swinging along 2F out as I expect him to be, all the stamina in the world will be of little good when the unbeaten class horse gets the office. Odds against will be like finding money lying in the streets of Epsom.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1355520
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1464

    Epsom missed the rain today, the going description already has the words good to soft in it. With 2 mainly dry days anticipated.

    #1355525
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2448

    It might end up being good to soft on the day, but its likely to be hard work because of the racing before this youd think

    Hopefully it stays dry anyway!

    #1355526
    wasps41
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1138

    My lad was training with his team at Taatenham Rec this afternoon. No rain all day. A mile as the crow flies if that. Ground at worst was good to soft.

    Derby goes off on good ground and SW takes it

    #1355535
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    The Racing Post were contradicting themselves. One article said it was likely an outsider might win the Oaks because of the bad ground, while another article said the drying ground made it unlikely the fillies would switch across the track.

    Totally piss value on Hazapour and Young Rascal now.

    I am still waiting on winning margin betting for Saxon Warrior. I reckon he’ll sail home.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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