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I must admit that the nobbling thing did cross my mind too, but only for a fleeting moment, given the early race antics of Dawn Approach – but I quickly realised that Manning was mostly to blame.
It was quite obvious that Dawn Approach was over keen, and like the out and out miler his is, wanted to go that bit faster than his jockey would allow. Kevin Manning was pulling the head off him, and the more Dawn Approach objected, the more the jockey resisted. Much wasted energy = Derby over for the race favourite !
Manning probably should have let Dawn Approach bowl along, allowing him to relax more. Even so, the chances of him still seeing out the mile and a half, let alone winning, would only have been slightly increased.
Dawn Approach is a top class miler – pure and simple. There is much to be said of this CC/CT/TT type effect – despite the protestations of old doubting Ginge.
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These suggestions of Dawn Approach being ‘got at’ are laughable. It really was not too surprising that the horse reacted to the slow pace in the way he did.
This is a horse who won over sprint distances last season and is used to going flat-out or three-quarter speed from the off. Even in the 2000 Guineas, Dawn Approach sat quite handy and was not restrained. On Saturday, for the first time in his life, Dawn Approach was asked to race at half or one-third speed. It was a new experience and the horse could not understand it. Perhaps this is an issue that could have been corrected at home, but I am sure that it takes some time to recondition a horse to settle. Sea The Stars and New Approach couldn’t do it, but were a little more workable than Dawn Approach.
The same issue reoccurs at least 10 times per week in juvenile hurdles. Former milers and other flat-racers take time and bitter experience to understand that they need to conserve energy and settle.
Dawn Approach’s problem was made worse by Manning being forced to race wide. Perhaps if they were locked away on the inside, then the pulling would have been subdued a little.
Andyod, that makes us a pair of old fools, I suppose…you are not alone
Seriously, nobody could say with any conviction he was got at; he’d have been dope-tested (though whether that would uncover a handful of nuclear grade chillis stuck up his bum at the starting gate, I don’t know
)I don’t watch much flat racing these days, so that’s another reason not to trust my eyes, but it just looked to me something well beyond a horse simply not settling. He looked spooked. Even when he got to the front, he hardly seemed comfortable there, and from what I’ve seen of the time figures, that was about the slowest section of the race. If that was the case, it’s not as though he burnt himself out in a scorching headlong dash; he surrendered very tamely indeed.
If that had been a horse like Miss You Too who looks a nutter (connections must wish a female equivalent of gelding existed), nobody would have thought twice. But from what I can find, DA has never done anything remotely like that before. And it was his eighth appearance, so he’d had a few opportunities to show temperament.
On circumstancial evidence – high profile race, short-price favourite, behaves completely out of character, finishes last – Sherlock would happily have accepted the post-race investigation. In 2013, we must settle for the belief that racecourse security is rock solid, no ‘unknown’ substance exists that would have brought about that display, and, crucially, I imagine, nobody on the exchanges appears to heave benefitted ‘abnormally’.
I see Mr Crisford says the race might have been lost at the start:
“I think something happened when he came out of the gates which set him alight,” said Crisford.
“I’ve seen a picture of Kevin Manning sitting very awkwardly as he jumped out as if he banged his iron or something.’
That seems to me a curious statement, given that the jockey does not back it up.
But Manning himself was unable explain what exactly may have caused the previously unbeaten colt to lose his head in such a manner.
“I don’t know what happened yesterday, I just can’t throw any light on it,” he said.
“I had planned to settle him mid-division and get him into a rhythm, but we left the gates and he just got out of control. It is extremely uncharacteristic of him as he is a very laid back horse.
"I was confident that he would get the trip beforehand as he switches off so easily."
Manning said he pulled up fine. It will be interesting to see how the horse comes out of the race. Perhaps, in the end, it was a case of what we punters know only too well; the fates being tempted once too often by the highly praised wit and confidence of Mr Bolger.
I don’t know about anyone else, but fate has been an ultra-consistent performer in all areas of my life; tempt it too much and it will show you the painful meaning of ‘puny’.
Dawn Approach ran a similar race to Tudor Minstrel in 1947, the highest rated miler prior to Frankel, he didn’t stay. He had fast blood in the very bottom section of his pedigree though he had more stayers than Dawn Approach in his genes. He pulled & didn’t settle, went back to a mile & was a successful racehorse & stallion.
I don’t think Dawn Approach was got at. Just ran as if it was a sprint; wonder how he’d do over 6 furlongs.I assume you mean Timeform ratings but the highest rated miler prior to Frankel was Brigadier Gerard.
Tudor Minstrel’s run in the Derby was quite different from Dawn Approach’s in that the former ran out of stamina in the straight but finished fourth. The latter’s chance at gone before they even went down the hill into Tattenham Corner. Tudor Minstrel was also subsequently beaten in the Eclipse proving he really didn’t stay beyond a mile, a distance he was imperious over, though breeding suggested he would. Perhaps Dawn Approach doesn’t stay beyond a mile but we really don’t know that from his run in the Derby.
Perhaps revenge of the desert for trying to win the Derby with a horse allowed to stay with the original trainer.
From what I read Bolger wanted to stay at a mile and never even entered him in the Derby.
You could be right. I just offered an alternative explanation why he was jumping and dancing instead of racing. I was led to believe that he was a VERY LOW Key horse not inclined to that behavior. I have seen him many times come out of the gate and settle immediately. In most of his races he is waited with, unlike Frankel, rather than urged to the front before the final furlong.
You asked me a week before the race why I thought Dawn Approach wouldn’t stay and this is part of my reply:-
Moving to Dawn Approach, he looks sharper than his father and I just don’t think he runs like a stayer. I like a horse who can travel economically and relaxed before lengthening stride, rather than quickening. The way Dawn Approach moves looks like it would be hard to settle him in and I have reservations about how he will cope at Epsom.
He is a red hot favourite but I think there are enough doubts to leave him well alone and have a punt on something at much bigger odds.
If you listen to Jim Bolger you will have heard him on about how relaxed and settled the horse was but that doesn’t equate to what I saw in his races. If you look at the seven comments below, they are for Dawn Approach in his seven previous races starting with his debut and running through to the Guineas:-
1.tracked leader
2.tracked leader in 2nd
3.tracked leader in 2nd
4.keen in touch
5.chased clear leader in 3rd
6.raced wide keen tracked leaders
7.chased leaderThis shows a horse who like to get on with things and you have to remember these were races from 5F to 8F and he had never raced before in a situation where his rivals were travelling as sedately as they did at Epsom.
Jim Bolger said in September last year that he thought this was a very much a Guineas horse and I’m not convinced he ever really changed that view.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Another brilliant post Steve and I should have congratulated you on picking that winner!!!
Have you read the Post today? An interesting article by James Willoughby on the subject. Here are a couple of paragraphs I found particularly relevant to this thread:
"The contrasting evidence of the Guineas and Derby sectional times underlines the difficulty a brilliantly fast colt had in adapting to a different task. And, in light of the knowledge
that he failed, it is evident he is rather one-dimensional in pace terms – he cannot run his races any other way
than fast early. Some have exaggerated the early pace of the Derby. As a matter of record, it is not correct to say it was
slow in historical terms. Using the stencil provided by the last 20 years, the gallop was fair during the uphill
first three furlongs, slow until the beginning of the descent and relatively fast late. But, for Dawn Approach, gearing down to a fair pace in the Derby from one of the strongest-run
2,000 Guineas in history was clearly too much for him to achieve. In the Guineas the first three furlongs were covered in 36.15sec whereas, in the Derby uphill the time was approximately 40.7sec. This difference, from an average of 37mph to 33mph, is an extremely wide range for a racehorse.""What happened to Dawn Approach might also have been the fate of
Frankel if he had been sent to Epsom in 2011. Some wise heads opined he would never settle again after his 2,000 Guineas. And, had his trainer not been, well, Henry Cecil, history
might have taken a different turn with Flat racing’s modern nonpareil. As it was, Frankel still nearly spilled over in
the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, but Cecil brilliantly solved his temperament like long-gone gods of
training have always done. In the process, he turned kryptonite into gelignite – and the controlled explosion sent Frankel into the record books. Can Bolger do the same with Dawn Approach?""The controlled aggression required in the Derby was as much
anathema to Dawn Approach as asking Alex Higgins to play safe, George Best to keep it simple or Willie John McBride to go easy for a change. So, now what Mr Bolger, after this inflection point? That cold, calculating brain of yours may be put to a test. Dawn Approach’s behaviour in the Derby demands a return to a mile – and the use of a pacemaker. But is it a matter of when and where we see him next? Or if?""this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Another brilliant post Steve and I should have congratulated you on picking that winner!!!
Have you read the Post today? An interesting article by James Willoughby on the subject. Here are a couple of paragraphs I found particularly relevant to this thread:
"The contrasting evidence of the Guineas and Derby sectional times underlines the difficulty a brilliantly fast colt had in adapting to a different task. And, in light of the knowledge
that he failed, it is evident he is rather one-dimensional in pace terms – he cannot run his races any other way
than fast early. Some have exaggerated the early pace of the Derby. As a matter of record, it is not correct to say it was
slow in historical terms. Using the stencil provided by the last 20 years, the gallop was fair during the uphill
first three furlongs, slow until the beginning of the descent and relatively fast late. But, for Dawn Approach, gearing down to a fair pace in the Derby from one of the strongest-run
2,000 Guineas in history was clearly too much for him to achieve. In the Guineas the first three furlongs were covered in 36.15sec whereas, in the Derby uphill the time was approximately 40.7sec. This difference, from an average of 37mph to 33mph, is an extremely wide range for a racehorse.""What happened to Dawn Approach might also have been the fate of
Frankel if he had been sent to Epsom in 2011. Some wise heads opined he would never settle again after his 2,000 Guineas. And, had his trainer not been, well, Henry Cecil, history
might have taken a different turn with Flat racing’s modern nonpareil. As it was, Frankel still nearly spilled over in
the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, but Cecil brilliantly solved his temperament like long-gone gods of
training have always done. In the process, he turned kryptonite into gelignite – and the controlled explosion sent Frankel into the record books. Can Bolger do the same with Dawn Approach?""The controlled aggression required in the Derby was as much
anathema to Dawn Approach as asking Alex Higgins to play safe, George Best to keep it simple or Willie John McBride to go easy for a change. So, now what Mr Bolger, after this inflection point? That cold, calculating brain of yours may be put to a test. Dawn Approach’s behaviour in the Derby demands a return to a mile – and the use of a pacemaker. But is it a matter of when and where we see him next? Or if?"Thanks Joni, I have been overdue a decent winner.
I don’t read The Racing Post, I used to buy it back in the day but it carries a hefty enough price tag these days and the form is usually on the web somewhere.
Looking back at when Triptych said she reckoned Dawn Approach had a great turn of foot, some, including yourself didn’t really see it that way. Thinking more about it and the tendency he had to hit a flat spot, could it be that he just likes to get on with it, and rather than quickening himself, is simply better able to maintain HIS pace for longer than his opponents, hence coming away from them relatively late in the race?
In the 2000 Guineas I felt he was keen enough and he didn’t put the race to bed with immediate effect. It was clear once he did get to the front that the others were dropping back and nothing was staying on from the pack but it took a fair bit of distance to build up his 5 length margin and I think Intello showed a better turn of foot in winning the French Derby, with Magician in the Irish 2000 looking like he can also stretch.I hope Dawn Approach can bounce back, as I would be very interested in seeing him challenge either, or both of those horses. It would seem likely though that they will give him a bit of time to get over a bad experience.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve and Joni… have been following your posts with interest in the aftermath of the Derby and have to say I agree with every word regarding why Dawn Approach ran so badly in the Derby and how it may affect him for the future.
I have been watching the race over and over and still get a chill down my spine when I see him pulling for his head and trying to lengthen his stride to go on and Joni said ‘it makes painful viewing’.
He now misses Royal Ascot and will obviously need a long rest after this, I would think that Jim Bolger is not best pleased that his pride and joy has ended up this way. Will he ever be the same again is my worry as the Derby can make and break horses, I hope his laid back attitude will help him through. As for looking sleepy in the paddock before the race, he looked just the same when he paraded for the Dewhurst last year it’s just his way. However, Dawn Approach never looked happy going round those Epsom bends he is a Newmarket, Curragh, Ascot, Goodwood type of horse and an out and out sprinter.
His career as a Stallion is secure but my concern is for the horse, has his spirit been broken, please let that not be the case and Sheik Mo lock him away to Stud early.
Brilliant posting on this thread by both of you. You certainly know your stuff and your love of the sport and the welfare of horses shines through.
My wish for Dawn Approach…
Get well and come back even better than you were before.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Yes; it was a sad sight on Saturday and I agree wholeheartedly with your sentiments, Triptych. He really is a wonderful horse and I’d hate him to be remembered for one bad race. Would love to know what Bolger really thinks about it all. Must say that I’ve heard the term ‘he’s so relaxed in his races he’ll see out the trip’ so many time
but can’t say that they ever do. By the way, did anyone see the programme about ‘Buck’ the real horse whisperer on BBC4 last night? The reason I mention it is that I was thinking of New Approach as I watched it, but he also came down so heavy on people that ruin horses with ignorance; hope that hasn’t happened with Dawn Approach.
Although admitting Ruler Of The World has the potential to improve the BHA’s senior handicapper has given him a rating of 120 following his Derby victory, the lowest of any this century.
I found it a really exciting race to watch, full of drama, good horse won, no-one got injured.
Pray tell me if that’s not a "good" derby what is?
Jim Bolger is a wonderful trainer. Seems that the owner like many owners wanted his horse to race in the Derby. Perhaps he would not take no for an answer. The traditional conflict and power play between owners who pay the bills and trainers who want to act like owners, but of courser don’t pay the bills. When your owner has been good to you i.e. spent a fortune in your yard; the least you can do is let him play with his toys.
I must admit that the nobbling thing did cross my mind too, but only for a fleeting moment, given the early race antics of Dawn Approach – but I quickly realised that Manning was mostly to blame.
It was quite obvious that Dawn Approach was over keen, and like the out and out miler his is, wanted to go that bit faster than his jockey would allow. Kevin Manning was pulling the head off him, and the more Dawn Approach objected, the more the jockey resisted. Much wasted energy = Derby over for the race favourite !
Manning probably should have let Dawn Approach bowl along, allowing him to relax more. Even so, the chances of him still seeing out the mile and a half, let alone winning, would only have been slightly increased.
Dawn Approach is a top class miler – pure and simple. There is much to be said of this CC/CT/TT type effect – despite the protestations of old doubting Ginge.
Blaming Manning is crazy.
Dawn Approach’s best (and probably only) chance was to settle the horse. Manning did everything he could to do so. Had the horse settled (even after a quarter of the race) he’d still have had a chance of winning; but Dawn Approach was not having it. To think Manning should’ve gone to the front from the start is foolish. Yes, some horses settle in front, but most (especially those used to a lead) do not. Had Manning managed to get a wall of horses in front in the first quarter – there would’ve been a better chance of settling/may not have been so rank.To get to the front in the Derby a horse needs to be bustled along in the first furlong, which would’ve lit Dawn Approach up even more. Anyway, had a prominent position been found one of team Coolmoore would’ve bustled him up to ensure he went too quick. After half the race was gone there was no point fighting any more, chance was gone, so the jockey again did the right thing. OK, he could’ve let the horse go a furlong sooner, but that’s splitting hairs and the damage already done. To "blame" Manning is silly.
Had Dawn Approach failed to maintain a mile and a half pace in the final two furlongs – it might be put down purely to CC’s. But that is not what happened. The Bolger horse failed to stay because he could not go SLOW enough at basically 1m6f pace. Going from a strongly run Guineas mile to normal 1m6f pace in its next race – is asking a lot. Yes, there might be a case that a "CC" is more likely to be rank than a "TT". But had a "TT" horse been as rank as Dawn Approach, he’d not have "stayed" the trip either.
I don’t dismiss CC/CT/TT’s H, just not think it’s over hyped.
Beaten after 6 furlongs, are you saying CC’s stopped the GUINEAS winner from "staying" 6 furlongs too H?
CC’s may have had something to do with the result, but not (imo) everything or indeed the majority. Had Dawn Approach (even with his CC’s) settled – I believe he’d probably have won. He didn’t and we shall never know. Hope to see Dawn Approach in the Sussex, as he is a top class miler. Hopefully Epsom does not leave a mark.
Tactics of team Coolmore should not be that surprising, they tried similar Derby tactics against Sea The Stars, another Guineas winner.
Value Is EverythingAidan was talking after the Derby about the tactics decided by the "lads" and suddenly realized what he was saying.He immediately changed his tune and said each jockey would be be doing his own thing(NO collusion there)The whole thing makes you wonder.They had no pacemaker.How about that.Why not? Were they seriously trying to win or to make the other horse lose? If the other horse loses they have five waiting in the wings.
Ginge, with all due respect… what utter nonsense.
I’ll put it down to the unexpected rays of glorious sunshine we are currently experiencing throughout the British Isles.
I think the heat’s going for you. Manning persevered much longer and he should have. He exacerbated the situation. A leaf from the old Steve Cauthen or Sir Gordon Richards hand book would have come in handy at that point. At least those two masters of their craft would have given the horse a much better chance – even though, the chances of Dawn Approach passing the post in first place would still have been next to zero.
To opine ( I’m surprised at you, Ginge ) that Dawn Approach could still have won had he settled in those early stages is merely clutching at not only straws, but a very tenuous get out clause.
Dawn Approach does not stay a mile and a half. No ifs, no buts.
Anyone who still persists with this strange notion is simply hoping against hope.
I think Mr. Bolger half suspected that Dawn Approach wouldn’t stay, but gave way to his insistent co-owner, who just had to find out by hell or high water.
* As for the team Coolmore tactics. Every trainer who opposes Aidan O’Brien’s horses in any classic knows the score – and takes their chance accordingly.
Even so, the best horse won the 2013 Derby on merit.
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I think the heat’s going for you. 
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