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I see the bookies are out to get Dawn Approach, they don’t think he will last home, Ladbrokes going 7/4 in morning.
We saw today that acting on the track is not always that important, the oaks winner looked unbalanced to me but still won easily. Think the same could happen tomorrow with Libertarian, this may be your last chance to back the horse at double figure odds. 16/1 is an amazing price, you may be kicking yourselves tomorrow when it outstays the field and wins going away by 2 and a half lengths.
So a small supposed improvement in the horse’s chance, possibly the jockey booking of Heffernan. Or just the fact it wasn’t thought of as a runner just a few days ago, so was a tempting price, bookmakers wanting to get it in to their book. There’s been "money" in recent days for other similar Ballydoyle horses.
Very much doubt if the market move is significant.
A writer for The Irish Field was a guest on ATR yesterday and he tipped up Festive Cheer as a "great bet" at 50/1, it wouldn’t take too many phone calls on the back of that to start a price reduction. He also reckoned that the upcoming Oaks was the worst he had seen in living memory.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I see the bookies are out to get Dawn Approach, they don’t think he will last home, Ladbrokes going 7/4 in morning.
We saw today that acting on the track is not always that important, the oaks winner looked unbalanced to me but still won easily. Think the same could happen tomorrow with Libertarian, this may be your last chance to back the horse at double figure odds. 16/1 is an amazing price, you may be kicking yourselves tomorrow when it outstays the field and wins going away by 2 and a half lengths.
The best price I see right now on Oddschecker is 11/8. This Ladbrokes bull plop about 7/4 in the morning will be a cheap stunt that sees the cleaning lady getting ten bob each way on before the price shrivels. Why aren’t they going 7/4 now if they are so confident? Ladbrokes have been just about the shortest all week and probably haven’t taken a halfpenny on him. They are 11/10 right now, oddly enough the shortest price of the lot. We will see what size their cojones really are tomorrow and my money is saying:-
Basketballs 7/1
Marbles 1/10In the event that Basketballs is beaten by a neck or less I’ll refund your stake as a free tricast on next years Grand National.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My 100% book:
11/8 Dawn Approach
7/1 Battle Of Marengo
17/2 Ruler Of The World
10/1 Chopin
14/1 Mars
14/1 Ocovango
20/1 Libertarian
22/1 Festive Cheer
40/1 Galileo Rock
500/1 Mirsaale
800/1 Flying The Flag
Worse than 2000/1 Ocean ApplauseValue Is EverythingHi Ginger,
I’d love to have some of your 14/1 e/w on Ocovango. I think he’s every chance of making a place if not winning. Bred to be a Derby winner!
I remember backing El Gran Senor for the Detby and getting outstayed by Sectreo after running all over that one one furlong out and can see the same today with Dawn Approach.
It’s e/w for me on Ocovango, allez le france!!
It’s a 100% book SYT, my idea of fair odds. The 14/1 reduces to 11/1 if you add a (bookmakers) mark up
Ocovango has a chance, but was not that impressive last time out. A pronounced rounded action that is usually suited by give in the ground and to date raced exclusively on a soft surface. Horses can often get away with it on good, but switch-back courses also (usually) place a disadvantage on round actioned horses. There’s also the fact very few real top class horses are round actioned.
Suspect bookmakers are a little shorter just because Pour Moi won a couple of years ago. Fabre is one of the best trainers in the World with an exceptional strike rate. However, he is not in great form at the moment. 20 runs without a win, quite a few were placed but it includes 7 favourites. Doesn’t mean he isn’t going to win today, but needs to be taken in to account in my pricing up.
Ocovango is inexperienced, just three runs and made all in two of those (tracked pace in the other). Little experience of the hustle and bustle of racing. Might front run today, but has pacemakers and other prominent runners to contend with today.
Not dismissing the Frenchman’s chance SYT. There’s just (imo) more negatives for him than some others of his apparent quality; which is probably why I have him at a bigger price than you might expect.
Value Is EverythingA small EW on Galileo Rock for me.I hope he can be improve with the step up in trip.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
It is often suggested that an exceptional horse can win over a distance without truly staying, the primary reason cited is that class alone will be enough.
A horse can possess enough ability to win despite a lack of stamina, but an inferior horse can stay every yard and yet still not possess sufficient ability to be victorious.
Dawn Approach at odds-against is a chance worth taking. It’s almost certain that he is the best colt in the field, his superb temperament will be a huge asset, and his pedigree is peppered with enough evidence to suggest that he could stay the distance.
At odds-on he was worth taking on. After all, in this game, you can amalgamate enough information to fit your own personal hypothesis as to why any horse can or can’t get beat!
So many fascinating challengers. Battle Of Marengo bids to emulate his wonderful sire, Galileo, who won both the Ballysax and Derrinstown en route to Epsom glory in 2001 – it’s impossible to ignore an Aidan O’Brien-trained colt who has won his last five races and two recognised Derby trials.
Likewise, how can you possibly underestimate an unbeaten Andre Fabre-trained runner? Arguably the finest trainer on the planet, he sent Pour Moi over to capture The Derby two years ago after success in the Prix Greffulhe. Ocovango has followed the same path.
On the face of it, Dawn Approach, Battle Of Marengo and Ocovango are the main protagonists, but unexposed types like the German raider, Chopin, and the Ballydoyle pair, Mars and Ruler Of The World, add plenty of spice and discussion.
It took twenty years for another colt to complete the Guineas-Derby double after Nashwan achieved the feat back in 1989. Sea The Stars took both races in 2009, as did Camelot last year. If Dawn Approach were to win this afternoon he would become the third colt in five renewals to achieve the classic double.
What does this say about the breed? Are we breeding more versatile thoroughbreds, or are connections simply ignoring the categorisation of their horses with regards distance? Either way, I think it is certainly a positive sign.
1 Dawn Approach
2 Battle Of Maregno
3 OcovangoGood Luck!
Galileo Rock and Mirsaale, both ew 40/1 and 100/1 [still searching for the 100/1 winner…]
SteveCaution – Ruler of the World 25/1
I would say well done, but I don’t want to upset anyone……….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Very well done.
DA had a nightmare run pulling like crazy in the first half mile, didn’t exactly help his cause of staying the trip!
Probably the worst Derby ever to be ran, tactics wise it spoiled the race, just looked like a bunch of slow horses battling it out in a slog, was not good to see. Clocking almost at 2:40, ridiculous.
Although at least the winner was the only one who seemed to quicken like a good horse there, whether he is Arc standard though I dont know.
Joseph O’Brien always kept on looking back in the race, I noticed.
Probably the worst Derby ever to be ran, tactics wise it spoiled the race, just looked like a bunch of slow horses battling it out in a slog, was not good to see. Clocking almost at 2:40, ridiculous.
The DA team tactics were found wanting. They should’ve had a pacemaker of their own in the race. Would DA have won ? We’ll never know now.
The antics and failure of Dawn Approach pay a good tribute to the performances of New Approach (Derby) and Sea The Stars (Arc). Both horses won in spite of wasting massive amounts of energy.
Haven’t seen the race yet, but let’s face it – he wasn’t good enough. 11th out of 12 runners is not a Derby winner, no matter how the race was run.
But if you saw the race he was pulling and tugging like he’ll in the first 3 furlongs and Manning was forced to go to the front, he just ran out of steam in the home straight, wouldn’t have won if it was a mile or mile and a half IMO. Nothing to do with class, just a horrible, horrible run.
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