November 11, 2004 at 14:35 #1546
Here is a simple system I use to narrow down the days racing and pinpoint 1, 2 or 3 horses against the field.
The first rule is an old yet very effective one, look for races where the first 3 forecast horses in the betting are qouted at seperate prices and the 4th in the betting is a further 1 and a half points back.<br>Example, first race at Lingfield today (Nov 11th)
12.50 5/4 Thrilling prospect<br> 7/2 Killonemoonlight<br> 4/1 Elfkirk<br> 7/1 Silent Appeal
Silent Appeal is 3 points back so using the Mirror paper I award points to the first 3 in the betting as follows.
SF = 2pts, F= 1pt, spotform horse = 1pt.<br>Raced 1 – 14 days = 3pts<br> 15 – 28 days = 2pts and 29 – 42 days = 1pt
Thrilling Prospect was a Strongly fancied and spotform horse who raced 18 days ago. So had a rating of 5, Killonemoonlight had no points and Elfkirk had 3 points for racing 5 days ago.
I usually scrub out races where the favourites forecast price is 4/6 or worse.<br>After a while qualifying races stand out like a sore thumb.
So, there you have it! Nice easy simple little system!
Factorman.November 11, 2004 at 15:10 #55894MatronParticipant
- Total Posts 5825
Hello Factorman and welcome.:wave:
Please feel to post any systems you wish.
Regards- Matron<br>:cool:November 11, 2004 at 17:32 #55895
Thanks Matron, will post a few more systems from time to time.
Just to fill the picture out a little more Re Easyrating…. I also scrub out races where the forecast FAV is 7/2 or higher, logic being that the forecasters are telling me that the race is "open".
Also to narrow down the races to get involved with further, I use the (as a rule of thumb) Van Der Wheil approach of using the most valuable races of those that qualify under the forecast rule, again the logic being that the race is worth winning plus the forecasters are "telling" me its a 3 horse race. ;)
A good example today was Thrilling prospect in the first at Lingfield, on the prize money stakes it was a bit of a scrubber race, but with 5 points on the easyrating and the forecast price of 5/4 with the next price being 7/2, I felt my card was being marked for me!<br>Best race today was the 3.00 at Ludlow, Creative time and Inca Trail though burned my fingers on 2.20 and 3.20 at Lingfield.
Oh well, live and learn!
FactormanNovember 12, 2004 at 07:46 #55896snowmanParticipant
- Total Posts 554
Hi Factorman and welcome,
You say you use this method to pinpoint 1, 2 or even 3 against the field.
Taking the first at Lingfield yesterday as your example, do you back the top rated only or any of the first 3 in the betting that ends up with a rating?November 12, 2004 at 10:41 #55897
The best way to answer your question is to run through a few of todays races.<br>Cheltenham has the better class races but I won’t be betting the 2.20, its a fun race to watch.<br>2.55 I’ll bet Well chief and cover Mister Mcgoldrick.<br>3.30 On the face of it Comply or Die (6pts) Evens fav looks a good thing but I watched its last run and I won’t be touching it, Baron Windrush and Limerick Leader against the field.<br>At Newcastle I’ll be taking Always Rainbows and Silver Sedge against the field whilst at Wolverhampton, Hidden Jewel (not odds on) to a medium stake because I don’t know whether its last run has knocked the stuffin out of it.
Basically I use the ratings to give me a quick view of the days racing and something to bounce off.:oJanuary 18, 2005 at 13:21 #55898
Shall put down some hard rules for Easyratings as this is a systems workshop.
The rules then are as follows…..
Take top 2 rated runners from every race that qualfies.<br>If equal rated runners (be it joint top or joint 2nd top) take the lowest price runner in the forecast.<br>Regardless of ratings stake 2pts on the lowest priced horse and 1pt on the other.<br>The exception being that if a horse has 5 or 6pts rating add a point to the stake (sometimes there may be 2 5 or 6pt horses in the same race.
And if its ok I’ll run my own fancies alongside the system runners.
Todays system bets then are….<br>1.40 towc Try catch paddy 2pts<br> Kingsbay 1pt
2.10 Towc Limerick Boy 3pts<br> Ball o Malt 1pt
2.30 Folk Amadeus 2pts<br> Haafel 1pt
3.00 Folk Dhaudeloup 3pts<br> Lanmire Tower 1pt
3.10 Towc Banker Count 2pts<br> Parish Oak 1 pt
My own bet is Limerick Boy 10pts win<br>3pt straight forecast Do l’enfant D’eau to beat Limerick Boy as a cover bet.January 19, 2005 at 09:59 #55899
8.34 pt system loss yesterday.
2.00 Fak jazz du forez 2pts<br> vicento 1pt
2.30 emperors guest 2pts<br> bound 2pts
4.00 miss merenda 3pts<br> a double ewe bee 1pt
12.50 newc miss academy 2pts<br> diamond sal 1pt
3.20 funny times 2pts<br> fortuna favente 1pt
13pt loss for me yesterday<br>Todays bets 2.00 F jaz du forez 4pts<br> 4.00 miss merenda 4ptsJanuary 19, 2005 at 13:06 #55900LookingForAWinnerMember
- Total Posts 115
Thanks for filling in a bit more detail. I will watch with interest.January 20, 2005 at 12:37 #55901
In error, I missed out the Lingfield Races yesterday, they were 12.35 madrasse (2) blue knight(1) 2.40 cordial (2)compton drake (1) 3.40 broughton knows (3) sungio (1)
Sorry about that. profit on the day 8.45 and overall so far +0.11p
Todays bets 1.30 Taun medison 2 rood boy 1<br> 2.30 ferimon 2 easter present 1<br> 3.30 ballyhoo 2 lily grey 1<br> 4.00 brave spirit 2 yanns 2
Ludlow 1.50 indien royal 3 dempsey 1<br> 3.50 kohinor 3 very special one 1<br> 4.20 the needler 2 salopian 1
Southwell 1.10 attorney 3 parc aux boules 1<br> 2.40 sovereignty 2 balgarth 1
<br>My own loss is 21 pts so far!January 21, 2005 at 10:12 #55902
todays system bets.
12.50 muss Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â golden odyssey Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â beauchamp Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2
1.50 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â gangters r us Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â place above Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2
3.00 motive Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â aleron Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1
1.30 Wolv Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â western boots Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â jidiya Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br>2.35 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â bienheureux Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â york cliff Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1<br>3.10 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â golden dixie Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â point of dispute Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1<br>2.15 Chep Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â holly walk Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â caspian dusk Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1
2.50 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â sixo Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 2<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â were in touch Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1<br>3.55 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â barton nic Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 3<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â sou’western Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1
Yesterday a loss of 5.07 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â overall Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â -4.96 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
Will try to do some work over the weekend to reduce the amount of races and improve on the rather crude staking plan.
Any suggestions are most welcome
Profit of 14pts today overall +9.06
(Edited by Factorman at 7:45 pm on Jan. 21, 2005)January 24, 2005 at 10:46 #55903
Unable to post selections on Saturday, loss of 7.63, overall profit of 1.43.
In trying to narrow down the amount of bets in any one given day, I’ll use the following rules to provide a maximum of 4 races for a day.
Of races that qualify use<br>1) earliest race time<br>2) longest race distance<br>3) of any remaining races use the top 2 races on prize money
To brake a tie use best rated points from top two selections, if still equal, race with fewest runners, if still equal, highest prize money.
Selections for today
Font 1.30 Obay 2<br> Antigiotto 1<br>2.30 Distant Thunder 2<br> Lotus Des Pictons 1<br>3.00 Mistress Banjo 2<br> Inch Pride 1<br>Sout 2.10 Contas 2<br> Tomina 1January 25, 2005 at 12:27 #55904
Loss of 6.37 yesterday, overall loss of 4.94
Todays earliest qualifying race is also the longest qualifying race of the day so will take the next 3 highest prize money races.
Leic 3.20 Once seen 2<br> Foxmeade Dancer 1<br>3.50 Tana River 2<br> Duncliffe 1
4.20 Reseda 2<br> Sweet Donna 1
Sedg 2.40 La Perrotine 3<br> County Classic 1January 26, 2005 at 09:51 #55905
Loss of 3.40 yesterday overall -8.34
Todays system choices
Weth 2.35 Deja Vu 2<br> The Names Bond 1
3.45 Ossmoses 2<br> Falchion 1<br>Ling 1.00 In The Know 2<br> Rock Music 1
Hunt 2.55 Big Bob 2<br> Almayden 1<br>January 27, 2005 at 13:40 #55906
Loss of 7.16 yesterday overall -15.50
Lets up the anti and stake the rating points on the selections, if/when it reaches -100 pts I’ll put it to bed.
Plum 1.50 Reflected Glory 4<br> Versus 2
Sout 1.10 Cerebus 6<br> Canadian Danehill 2<br> <br>3.10 Zarzu 3<br> Treasure Cay 3
<br>Warw 3.00 Fifaro Du Rocher 5<br> Nagano 3January 28, 2005 at 10:33 #55907
Profit of 6.13 yesterday overall loss of -9.37
Donc 3.55 Noisetine 3<br> Polar Scout 2
Folk 1.30 Jair Ohmsford 5<br> One Cornetto 3
3.10 Just Anvill 6<br> Ungaretti 2
Wolv 3.30 Compton Bolter 6<br> Moayed 4
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