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  • #1546
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Here is a simple system I use to narrow down the days racing and pinpoint 1, 2 or 3 horses against the field.

    The first rule is an old yet very effective one, look for races where the first 3 forecast horses in the betting are qouted at seperate prices and the 4th in the betting is a further 1 and a half points back.<br>Example, first race at Lingfield today (Nov 11th)

    12.50  5/4 Thrilling prospect<br>           7/2 Killonemoonlight<br>           4/1 Elfkirk<br>           7/1 Silent Appeal

    Silent Appeal is 3 points back so using the Mirror paper I award points to the first 3 in the betting as follows.

    SF = 2pts, F= 1pt,  spotform horse = 1pt.<br>Raced 1 – 14 days = 3pts<br>          15 – 28 days = 2pts and 29 – 42 days = 1pt

    Thrilling Prospect was a Strongly fancied and spotform horse who raced 18 days ago. So had a rating of 5, Killonemoonlight had no points and Elfkirk had 3 points for racing 5 days ago.

    I usually scrub out races where the favourites forecast price is 4/6 or worse.<br>After a while qualifying races stand out like a sore thumb.

    So, there you have it! Nice easy simple little system!

    Factorman.

    #55894
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5825

    Hello Factorman and welcome.:wave:

    Please feel to post any systems you wish.

    Regards- Matron<br>:cool:

    #55895
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Thanks Matron, will post a few more systems from time to time.

    Just to fill the picture out a little more Re Easyrating…. I also scrub out races where the forecast FAV is 7/2 or higher, logic being that the forecasters are telling me that the race is "open".

    Also to narrow down the races to get involved with further, I use the (as a rule of thumb) Van Der Wheil approach of using the most valuable races of those that qualify under the forecast rule, again the logic being that the race is worth winning plus the forecasters are "telling" me its a 3 horse race. ;)

    A good example today was Thrilling prospect in the first at Lingfield, on the prize money stakes it was a bit of a scrubber race, but with 5 points on the easyrating and the forecast price of 5/4 with the next price being 7/2, I felt my card was being marked for me!<br>Best race today was the 3.00 at Ludlow, Creative time and Inca Trail though burned my fingers on 2.20 and 3.20 at Lingfield.

    Oh well, live and learn!

    Factorman

    #55896
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Hi Factorman and welcome,

    You say you use this method to pinpoint 1, 2 or even 3 against the field.

    Taking the first at Lingfield yesterday as your example, do you back the top rated only or any of the first 3 in the betting that ends up with a rating?

    #55897
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Hi Snowman,

    The best way to answer your question is to run through a few of todays races.<br>Cheltenham has the better class races but I won’t be betting the 2.20, its a fun race to watch.<br>2.55 I’ll bet Well chief and cover Mister Mcgoldrick.<br>3.30 On the face of it Comply or Die (6pts) Evens fav looks a good thing but I watched its last run and I won’t be touching it, Baron Windrush and Limerick Leader against the field.<br>At Newcastle I’ll be taking Always Rainbows and Silver Sedge against the field whilst at Wolverhampton, Hidden Jewel (not odds on) to a medium stake because I don’t know whether its last run has knocked the stuffin out of it.

    Basically I use the ratings to give me a quick view of the days racing and something to bounce off.:o

    #55898
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Shall put down some hard rules for Easyratings as this is a systems workshop.

    The rules then are as follows…..

    Take top 2 rated runners from every race that qualfies.<br>If equal rated runners (be it joint top or joint 2nd top) take the lowest price runner in the forecast.<br>Regardless of ratings stake 2pts on the lowest priced horse and 1pt on the other.<br>The exception being that if a horse has 5 or 6pts rating add a point to the stake (sometimes there may be 2 5 or 6pt horses in the same race.

    And if its ok I’ll run my own fancies alongside the system runners.

    Todays system bets then are….<br>1.40 towc  Try catch paddy 2pts<br>                  Kingsbay   1pt

    2.10 Towc  Limerick Boy  3pts<br>                  Ball o Malt      1pt

    2.30 Folk    Amadeus       2pts<br>                  Haafel           1pt

    3.00  Folk   Dhaudeloup   3pts<br>                  Lanmire Tower  1pt

    3.10 Towc   Banker Count   2pts<br>                   Parish Oak       1 pt

    My own bet is Limerick Boy 10pts win<br>3pt straight forecast Do l’enfant D’eau to beat Limerick Boy as a cover bet.

    #55899
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    8.34 pt system loss yesterday.

    Todays bets

    2.00 Fak  jazz du forez 2pts<br>                vicento    1pt

    2.30     emperors guest    2pts<br>            bound            2pts

    4.00     miss merenda   3pts<br>            a double ewe bee 1pt

    12.50 newc     miss academy  2pts<br>                       diamond sal     1pt

    3.20         funny times     2pts<br>                fortuna favente   1pt

    13pt loss for me yesterday<br>Todays bets    2.00 F    jaz du forez   4pts<br>                       4.00       miss merenda  4pts

    #55900
    LookingForAWinner
    Member
    • Total Posts 115

    Thanks for filling in a bit more detail. I will watch with interest.

    #55901
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    In error, I missed out the Lingfield Races yesterday, they were 12.35 madrasse (2) blue knight(1)  2.40 cordial (2)compton drake (1)  3.40 broughton knows (3) sungio (1)

    Sorry about that.   profit on the day 8.45 and overall so far +0.11p

    Todays bets       1.30 Taun medison 2  rood boy  1<br>                        2.30    ferimon     2      easter present  1<br>                        3.30   ballyhoo   2      lily grey    1<br>                        4.00   brave spirit 2    yanns   2

    Ludlow    1.50   indien royal   3   dempsey    1<br>                3.50  kohinor     3     very special one 1<br>                4.20  the needler 2   salopian   1

    Southwell    1.10   attorney   3   parc aux boules 1<br>                   2.40   sovereignty  2   balgarth    1

    <br>My own loss is 21 pts so far!

    #55902
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    todays system bets.

    12.50 muss     golden odyssey   2<br>                       beauchamp        2

    1.50    gangters r us   2<br>           place above    2

    3.00 motive     2<br>        aleron      1

    1.30 Wolv      western boots    2<br>                      jidiya      2<br>2.35   bienheureux    2<br>          york cliff       1<br>3.10    golden dixie   2<br>           point of dispute   1<br>2.15 Chep     holly walk   2<br>                    caspian dusk    1

    2.50     sixo         2<br>            were in touch    1<br>3.55     barton nic     3<br>            sou’western   1

    Yesterday a loss of 5.07    overall    -4.96  

    Will try to do some work over the weekend to reduce the amount of races and improve on the rather crude staking plan.

    Any suggestions are most welcome

    Regards

    Factorman

    Profit of 14pts today overall  +9.06

    (Edited by Factorman at 7:45 pm on Jan. 21, 2005)

    #55903
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Unable to post selections on Saturday, loss of 7.63, overall profit of 1.43.

    In trying to narrow down the amount of bets in any one given day, I’ll use the following rules to provide a maximum of 4 races for a day.

    Of races that qualify use<br>1) earliest race time<br>2) longest race distance<br>3) of any remaining races use the top 2 races on prize money

    To brake a tie  use best rated points from top two selections, if still equal, race with fewest runners, if still equal, highest prize money.

    Selections for today

    Font 1.30   Obay     2<br>                  Antigiotto   1<br>2.30    Distant Thunder     2<br>           Lotus Des Pictons    1<br>3.00   Mistress Banjo    2<br>          Inch Pride       1<br>Sout   2.10    Contas     2<br>          Tomina      1

    #55904
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Loss of 6.37 yesterday, overall loss of 4.94

    Todays earliest qualifying race is also the longest qualifying race of the day so will take the next 3 highest prize money races.

    Todays bets

    Leic   3.20   Once seen    2<br>                   Foxmeade Dancer     1<br>3.50    Tana River    2<br>           Duncliffe    1

    4.20    Reseda     2<br>           Sweet Donna    1

    Sedg   2.40    La Perrotine    3<br>                      County Classic   1

    #55905
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Loss of 3.40 yesterday   overall -8.34

    Todays system choices

    Weth  2.35   Deja Vu   2<br>                    The Names Bond     1

         3.45   Ossmoses      2<br>                Falchion         1<br>Ling     1.00    In The Know      2<br>                       Rock Music         1

    Hunt     2.55    Big Bob         2<br>                        Almayden      1<br>                      

    #55906
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Loss of 7.16 yesterday overall -15.50

    Lets up the anti and stake the rating points on the selections, if/when it reaches -100 pts I’ll put it to bed.

    Todays bets

    Plum 1.50  Reflected Glory  4<br>                  Versus               2

    Sout     1.10     Cerebus       6<br>                         Canadian Danehill   2<br> <br>3.10   Zarzu       3<br>           Treasure Cay     3

    <br>Warw  3.00    Fifaro Du Rocher   5<br>                      Nagano                 3

    #55907
    FactormanFactorman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 389

    Profit of 6.13 yesterday overall loss of -9.37

    Todays bets

    Donc   3.55   Noisetine     3<br>                     Polar Scout    2

    Folk     1.30    Jair Ohmsford    5<br>                      One Cornetto    3

                3.10   Just Anvill        6<br>                       Ungaretti         2

    Wolv      3.30    Compton Bolter      6<br>                         Moayed                  4

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