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Here is a tip for all of you serious punters !
If you fancy a horse priced 5 to 1 or bigger in a handicap with 8 or more runners… then play the 3 place betting in the extra markets with various bookies. You should get even money for 3 places.
All you have to do is put 20 on the horse at evens..place only.
And also put 10 on the win at fixed odds at lets say 5 to 1.
if the horse is placed you win 10.
if it wins the race you win 70.
Basically you are trying to get a free stake on the win.
Worst comes to worst you are down 30 blips.look there is risk in everything.. when u get out of bed there is risk.. when you drive your car there is risk. There is risk in everything !
True gamblers try to manage the risk involved.Bookmakers don’t like this strategy one bit at all
Colosus
Welcome to TRF Colosus, some good threads you’ve started, hope to see plenty more.
Thank you Mr.Cognac
If you are a clever man, which I think you are, as you think I am clever lol
I mainly back with the greenhouse, the odd bit with the bluehouse.
The two main bookies in Ireland.
I had a big job with one of them years ago.The extra racing markets is the way to go.
I am on to a trade.. a little risk, yes but that’s mainly down to stake planning.
The greenhouse made 250m pre-tax profits in their last returns.
I just want a nibble of it.
I live 15 mins from Dublin airport and am looking to talk to sincere punters and traders.
I am from a racing background and have no interest in bots, tipping premiums or any schemes. I get word and pass it on to friends.I just love getting it right ! And a bite to eat and a few drinks.
There is going to be mad fun when racing returns.
Hopefully a few strokes pulled and we get on.I will tell you in person and privately that there are some foolish punters out there.
I don’t back with the P.O.P.E
They are a bunch of outdated swindlers.
I saw last year that guys with word hammered a horse at 16/1 SP for a place on the P.O.P.E..he won the race and they paid 6/4 for a place.
Now Cognac the fixed odds place betting in the Extra markets is the way to go for all of us.
I know a good few bookie traders that will be going mad reading this.
Lets make it a level playground.Interesting stuff Colosus, but…
Just to complicate matters…There shouldn’t really be a 5/1 limit to odds with either each way or place betting. Sometimes a horse is a good place bet, sometimes the win only is a better bet across the odds spectrum.
If there’s a short priced favourite the race often favours each way… including as low as 5/2. Just because the place bet doesn’t get back all win stake it shouldn’t be thought of as a poor bet. Statistically getting back most of the win bet can sometimes be a profitable long term strategy when betting against a short priced fav… particularly if many of the other horses are rank outsiders (unlikely to beat the 5/2 shot for the place) and number of runners is close to the perfect 8 or 16 etc. ie Chance of the 5/2 bet being placed is greater than the place odds suggest. Overall, statistically – with those that do win and place – the punter is likely to show a profit in such circumstances. Although must be said, you’re also likely to get your account severely limited or closed if betting this way too many races in these circumstances.
Strangely, the type of race often thought of as favouring each way – significantly open races – are seldom good each way races. eg with 7/1 the field and a lot of runners between 7/1 and 16/1. Purely because so many rivals also have a reasonable chance of placing. Better betting two, three or more selections at win only.
Value Is Everythingi totally agree !
if I tell you in future that I have word for an 11 to 4 shot in a maiden at Dundalk. Over 7 runners.
And he is 4 to 7 a place extra markets place only.
Surely the bet is 700 on the 3 place at 4 to 7.
And 200 on the win at 11 to 4. To win money you have to go for it when you get the word.You are no fool !
You talk about value. I go after value !
How I go about it is simple.
Lets say Man Utd are playing at home and they are even money.
I try and put them in a double with a 1 to 2 shot that I also fancy.
Suddenly when the 1 to 2 comes in first that leaves me on Man Utd at 2 to 1.
People look at odds on shots as robbery.
They couldn’t be further wrong.
1/3 is 33.33% of your money
2/5 is 40%
4/7 is 56%
4/6 is 66.66%
8/11 is 72%
4/5 is 80%
5/6 is 83 %
And you can be even smarter… don’t do a double on paper.Back the 1 to 2 in a single and reinvest a portion of the winnings then on Man Utd…even leave yourself a lovely free bet on Man Utd
Odds on are odds on for a reason !
Colosus
It’s not quite as simple as you make out, Colosus.
No harm in putting two shorties that are value in a double and singles, as long as they are value.
If Man U are Evens at home then they’re not neccesarily a good bet. All depends which team they’re playing, the form of each team, does the away team play well on their travels? Who are in those teams? Are the players individually in good form and does the particular formation play well/play well together?… ie Is their chance of winning better or worse than 50% (Evens)?
Also any 1 to 2 shot must be judged along the same lines… Then asking has it a better or worse than 67% chance (1 to 2)?
Value Is EverythingI know what sense you are making.
I was only using Man Utd as an example.
Of course I mean that you have to be strong no matter what selection you take.
You love value, and my understanding of value is getting the first bet up on the day.
Please read my last thread on “vigorish or overround”.I am out to save the small man. When racing returns I will pass on any word to a small bunch of new friends.
Colosus
That’s my point, Colosus.
“my understanding of value is getting the first bet up on the day”.
Is it? From what was said on the “overround” thread, I thought it was evident you understand the percentages and know what value truly is…
…Which is why I am so surprised that on this thread you seem to go against that, in going after a winner for the first bet of the day whether it’s value or not. Think about it… You know yourself that just because a bet has a good chance of success and/or a probable winner, does not make it “value”/a good bet whether it’s the last or first bet of the day.
Sorry mate, but going against what is value for even one bet of the day reduces the chance of overall profit.
Value Is EverythingOK
You never mentioned the word I used, “psychological”.I am gambling over 30 years and I use all my knowledge and race factors to try and get the first winner on the day. Considering the odds and probability and other things. You are more mathematical than me. Always looking for an edge on the bookie.
I am a shop punter, I gamble with a good friend and he knows his onions. Whilst in the shop I get to see markets quicker than any laptop. I know part of gambling is psychological.That and self control. Its us against them.
You have a different style to me.
My friends also have. Some of them haven’t a clue about horses.Where as I know a lot more.
I just don’t like losing my first bet on the day.This should have been Guineas Day. Hopefully we get to see the next superstar soon !
Pinatubo caught my eye when he won his maiden. Interestingly the greenhouse are going 4/5, where Laddys are going 11 to 10.
If they are going no run no bet maybe, if they run he mite hit 5/4 on the day.
Colosus
Difficulty with place betting is the market is generally unfavorable from the off.
For example, in a 11 runner field where all horses were considered equal they would have a 10/1 chance each at 9.09%. Totaling up to 100% before a bookmaker worked in his over round.
Now consider that the place part of the bet is 1/5 of the odds making them 2/1 to place, they already begin with a whopping over round on the place part clearing massively over 300% before you even start. Place odds on the exchange are rarely profitable, and sometimes they are down right embarrassing.
YEAH… but there’s three times the chance of bagging a winner.
(agreed EW is a tricky subject)
D21
good man dynamite !
I am telling the forum that the bookies don’t let you back a horse the following way instead of each way.
50 on the place
20 on the wintherefore you have to put the twenty on the nose
and 50 on 3 places in the extra markets that they offer you.Don’t complicate things, as you said you have 3 chances of collecting.
Colosus
The 11 runner 10/1 example overround is
122% …so the place market offers less value compared to win market.WORKING OUTS….
back every horse to place = £11 stake
total returns = (3 × £3) = £9£11 divided by £9 × 100 = 122%
D21
“1/4 odds 4places different story, also how many of the line up are TRYING?”
You never mentioned the word I used, “psychological”
YES!!!! Psychology is the MOST important thing in betting. More important than value. YES, more important than value!!! (Although value is clearly critical also – before the avalanche comes)
Cormack15
Psychology is of course important, David. Lot of punters don’t have the psychology to profit. Just as some punters might know their form book extremely well without being able to convert that form in to chance. But you’ve gone too far.
If looking back at my betting records, it might seem as though had I kept solely to “main bets” (those I make the very best value) in each race, I’d have made more money. ie Instead of also having saver bets on the lesser value (potentially getting back what’s lost on the mains). Even the lesser value are what I consider value. Backing horses that I believe are not value would be going against my religion.
Reason I have saver bets is psycological, keeping my strike rate higher and therefore chance of a long losing run is far less… And long losing runs can lead to losing confidence which could in turn alter the way I work races out… Potentially coming to the wrong conclusions about what is and what is not value in my main bets.
So although statistics over the years might suggest that without those saver bets I’d make more money. I believe that without saver bets I’d probably not be betting the same best value horses either. Psychology helps identify value. But “potentially” and “probably” isn’t definite… and “helps” means I may well have made a profit anyway, just not as big a profit. Where as over time with value it’s simple and definite… No value no profit!
Value Is EverythingPsychology is indeed important to betting. If you know you are working to plan, it is about being consistent and not letting emotion get involved.
I apply a lot of psychology pointers to help me. I played cricket to a high level and implemented a lot of sports psychology in doing so. Goals, positive imagery, trigger words etc. I have a board I made on my desk in front of me that has my trigger words and motivational aspects. I find just being reminded of them and doing so helps me stay focused.
Hello Tb,
Just got word from a stable for a horse when racing returns in Ireland.
I am told he is ready to win.
They plan to resume early June.
I know for a fact that others are talking out of school in the yard. I told him that.
Please God the horse in question will be 6 or 10 to one.I will watch the entries closely. If I am on then I will post it as early as I see fit.
I am thinking 15 mins to a half an our before the off.
You see its a gambling stable and I don’t want to jump in ahead of them…then they may go the other way on me.ok guys
Colosus
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