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Dont complicate betting

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  • #1488420
    tbracingtbracing
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    • Total Posts 1407

    Psychology is indeed important to betting. If you know you are working to plan, it is about being consistent and not letting emotion get involved.

    I apply a lot of psychology pointers to help me. I played cricket to a high level and implemented a lot of sports psychology in doing so. Goals, positive imagery, trigger words etc. I have a board I made on my desk in front of me that has my trigger words and motivational aspects. I find just being reminded of them and doing so helps me stay focused.

    #1488495
    colosus68
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    • Total Posts 150

    Hello Tb,

    Just got word from a stable for a horse when racing returns in Ireland.
    I am told he is ready to win.
    They plan to resume early June.
    I know for a fact that others are talking out of school in the yard. I told him that.
    Please God the horse in question will be 6 or 10 to one.

    I will watch the entries closely. If I am on then I will post it as early as I see fit.
    I am thinking 15 mins to a half an our before the off.
    You see its a gambling stable and I don’t want to jump in ahead of them…then they may go the other way on me.

    ok guys

    Colosus

    #1489012
    Blackcountry Kid
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    • Total Posts 130

    Earlier in this thread ‘odds on’ betting was brought up and during my many years involved can say I’ve bet right across the spectrum including odds on.However since specializing I can’t recall if at all I’ve struck a bet that was odds on.To make money from backing odds on means the majority of bets have to be successful and while I can’t say for betting on football although I don’t have the stats to show here would be very surprised if just betting odds on any punter could achieve anything like a worthwhile profit when investing on horses.The earlier comments were correct in saying 1/3 was a 33% return,2/5 a 40% return etc however does the overall strike rate of such horses mean they are value or a viable long term proposition for for a punter?
    When racing,hopefully,restarts next week just follow,ON PAPER..(NO BETS),odds on shots……I won’t say more.
    Perhaps someone has access to stats on horses priced odds on?
    good luck to all

    #1489028
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26588

    Take psyhcology out of the equation and it doesn’t matter what a punter’s average price is, Kid. Any price is a long term proposition if having enough of them.
    I don’t have individual bets @ shorter than around 4/5. Not because it should be harder to find value at shorter. Just that it’s one of my weaknesses, not so good at identifying the value at that price range for whatever reason. ie a 1\3 shot must be thought by the punter to have a better than 75% chance of winning to be a value / a good bet. However, 70, 75 and 80% chances pretty much look the same to me. Could also be something to do with confidence and to a certain extent pressure. ie In putting so much on one horse. In theory, a horse I believe has an 80% chance (true 1\4) available @ 2/5 (fair 73.2%) should – under my staking plan – get:

    80 – 73.2 = 6.8
    6.8 X 8 = 54.4
    54.4 + 80 = 134.4

    Stake is 134.4 points @ 2/5.
    I don’t think twice having 134 or even 150 points divided between four runners in the same race, and it doesn’t bother me at all if it lost. But having it all on one horse is somehow different psychologically.

    However, there will be plenty of profitable punters out there who are good at identifying odds-on value and may be aren’t so good at finding value @ 33/1. It’s all what suits the individual punter that matters.

    Couple of obvious facts to bear in mind:
    The shorter your average priced winner is, the the more winners a punter needs to make a profit
    However that is (psycohology aside) exactly offset by the fact that…
    The shorter your average priced winner the easier it is to find winners.

    The two above facts change in proportion, so whatever a punter’s average priced winner is… it is just as easy / hard to make a profit over time.

    Those last two words are important, “over time”.
    Must remember: If betting lots of long odds-on shots it’s only natural to have extremely long winning runs. So getting off to a “fabulous start” with loads of profit is not necessarily to do with good betting or a good edge… And at those prices (those high stakes) doesn’t take many losers for it all to come crashing down.

    value is everything
    #1489180
    colosus68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 150

    Its amazing how you feel if you have a good go at your first bet and win.

    You just sit there and contemplate if you are happy enough with your days pay.
    Or take your time and consider reinvesting and having another go that day with a fraction of your winnings.

    Greed or Control ?

    The lad that loses goes bananas and starts chasing anything he can and loses control. Immediately backing anytyhing that he has no strong opinion on.

    Suddenly he is cleaned out, and has to ring the wife and tell her that he lost his wallet and there was 500 in it.

    This is reality

    Colosus

    #1489272
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Its amazing how you feel if you have a good go at your first bet and win.

    You just sit there and contemplate if you are happy enough with your days pay.
    Or take your time and consider reinvesting and having another go that day with a fraction of your winnings.

    Greed or Control ?

    The lad that loses goes bananas and starts chasing anything he can and loses control. Immediately backing anytyhing that he has no strong opinion on.

    Suddenly he is cleaned out, and has to ring the wife and tell her that he lost his wallet and there was 500 in it.

    This is reality

    Colosus

    LOST control on BOTH counts.

    Yes, every punter enjoys having the first winner of the day, Colosus; but it shouldn’t make such a drastic difference.

    If he/she (usually a he) needs that first bet to be a winner that if losing goes bananas, chasing anything, loses control, backing stuff he has no strong opinion on, he’s cleaned out, lost a monkey and lies to the wife about losing his wallet…

    If wanting the first bet to be a winner so badly he ends up putting enough on a short priced first bet for the winnings to be a days pay… and thinking of what happens when the first bet doesn’t come in… What the f… is the poor bloke going to do if that big first short priced bet actually LOSES? – which often happens.

    If that’s a particular punter’s reality I’d remind him “When the fun stops, STOP!

    Reminds me a lot of someone I used to take to the races. When there we’d go our seperate ways, might meet up to watch a race or two. He’d have a good sized bet on a shortish priced horse and either celebrate in a calm(ish) manner or drown his sorrows. If the former, he’d end up having an enjoyable day out and in a good mood on the journey home. If the latter, putting on more and more and/or on any bigger priced horse – and sozzled going home. Concerned me enough to contact GA for advice on how to help.

    Worth saying again.
    When the fun stops, STOP!

    value is everything
    #1489284
    colosus68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 150

    Ginger

    we can only talk from experience.

    I have seen many pals go to the wall.

    I often suggested giving me the monkey and see how I get on.

    If you asked them what a group 3 was they would more than likely ask you is it something to do with orgys.

    They know absolutely zero that go in and try to be king kong.

    Its the veil of secrecy that we keep and the lies they tell their partner. Nobody pays attention to “if the fun stops..stop !”
    I mainly sit in the shop and cleverly monitor the bets they are making. Madness !

    There is huge term in law called duty of care.

    What part should the shop staff take ?
    I have seen the best of men walk in after work and drop a monkey….then hit the ATM and drop another 600…lose that and then fire the card over the counter another 500…Thats 1600 gone in an hour or so !!

    I studied law and understand the DUTY OF Care

    Have the bookies and their staff a duty care with the many many individuals that back like this ??

    A serious problem gambler could sue them in my eyes.

    If they won their case a judge will bring CONTRIBUTORY NEGLIGENCE in to play. The fact that the plaintiff got himself in to this by his careless actions.

    If they won a judge could deduct up to 70% of the damages awarded.

    Colosus :wacko:

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