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That was just too bad to be true from EE. When you have a trainer as long in the tooth as Sir M getting as excited as he was then you know that you have an unusual horse. If he was injured then he has to be forgiven. Saying that, the winner is just like his sister and improves from race to race. You couldn’t rule him out next May. Also anyone on Elarqam should be feeling happier after today…..
As i stated in the guineas thread ive taken 33/1 about elarqam when it was available, but this hasnt made me feel happier, if expert eye wasnt found to be lame and clearly unsettled and he finished 2nd 3rd or something around that id be happy, but as ot stands hes still the most likely winner of the guineas at this stage, serious over reaction drifting him to 12/1
My initial thoughts regarding EE were how disappointing he was however maybe , and this is a big maybe , he injured himself in the stalls!!
He obviously played up in the stalls and it is possible that is when the injury occurred.Don’t write him off yet !
Lots of racegoers waiting around the pre parade to catch a glimpse of Expert Eye before the race but he didn’t show instead went straight into the main ring for a couple of circuits before going to post. Nothing looked amiss with him although you had to wonder what all the hype was about, we were all expecting it to be a one horse race but instead we got a masterclass performance from the Ballydoyle team.
Well done to all who backed U S Navy Flag, he was my horse without the favourite and I duly backed him today as most of the rail bookies were win only and I couldn’t have backed Expert Eye at that price.
Great call from Charlie87 and BigG going for the second horse Mendelsohhn and 80/1 if you got it was a great price, well done you. I think Charles Olney also liked U S Navy Flag as he napped him in my compy and like me was at Newmarket to cheer him home.
Michael Stoute has not had the best of days or seasons come to that and all his horses today ran below par.
I can’t even begin thinking about the Guineas/Derby at this time of year as apart from Elarqam it all looks very open, it’s just lining the bookies pockets.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...serious over reaction drifting him to 12/1
You can only go with what you see, and when a horse blows out like that, in the biggest two year old race of the year, you can hardly expect punters to be jumping over each other to back him
In fact can you name a two year old who disappointed to that extent and went on to win the guineas? I can’t.
Just on a breeding front I was thinking yesterday about what Acclamation has ever produced, so I had a look. He’s ‘only’ sired 2 horses who have managed to record RPRs over 120 and they are Marsha and Equiano (both recorded over 5 furlongs). Others of note are Acclaim, Harbour Watch, Hitchens, Dark Angel and Mehmas. It seems to me if you want a Guineas winner you don’t send your mare to him.
breeding isn’t the be all and end all charles but clearly invincible spirit imparts a lot of speed; that in itself brings in another unknown, would expert eye even stay 1 mile well enough to win a guineas on a stiff track like newmarket. I always feel that you need a horse that can stay that bit further to win a guineas
it also puts that goodwood run into another perspective, when they were talking about the horse travelling so well that he went to the front too soon… maybe that wasn’t just one of those things maybe the horse is a six furlong seven furlong type? wouldn’t be surprised if he did bounce back to form to see him in races like the jersey or perhaps the commonwealth further down the line
but obviously if you don’t settle at all you’re not even going to get home over six furlongs
set against all this of course is the fact that his goodwood win was probably the most visually striking two year old win of the season- so if you do keep the faith you have to hope that was the real expert eye and not the horse we saw yesterday
anyway the guineas picture is extremely confused at this point although I like elarqam very much
I suppose we will never know what happened to the FAV, would of been good to see him run his race. The race he won at Goodwood was run on Good ground but if i remember correctly it was more on the Soft side. Possibly he does not like fast ground like it was yesterday and the War Front’s and Scat Daddy’s really appreciated it.
Haha Steve, you’ve got me. Must admit I did consider changing my name and leaving the country after the Brian The Snail mis-step!
2-3 is such a key developmental time for a racehorse. As we see with Godolphin year after year, it’s so rare for a horse to hit a setback and then progress to deliver on the potential as you’d hope. I can’t think of many who got injured at 2 and went on to win Classics at 3, perhaps only Canford Cliffs in my time.
Maybe some of the sages like Steeplechasing and Yeats can point to a few others? Expert Eye will need to be special to retrieve this situation.
I haven’t followed Flat racing seriously for more than 30 years. I try to keep tabs on the group races but that’s about it so I couldn’t offer any examples of performance like that (injured or not) bar Gorytus who’s been mentioned before.
But common sense says the horse deserves another chance. He ran 22lbs below his Goodwood RPR yesterday. What caused that, nobody seems to know. Lameness was diagnosed by the vet, but he reportedly trotted up sound back at the yard. Neither jock nor trainer can explain the run. It was chalk and cheese to Goodwood where he settled well and showed plenty of pace. I wouldn’t say he ran though the line like an out and out stayer but I wouldn’t have doubted him getting 7f at Newmarket in a fast race.
His Newbury race has thrown up 5 wins from 21 runs – two of them at G2 level. His Goodwood run produced 3 wins from 14 runs – two G2s and one Listed. Newmarket has been abuzz about him for a long time. He was fully entitled to be the price he was yesterday.
Of course there is the chance that something irreversible happened yesterday, possibly a mental thing, maybe physical (even though Atzeni wasn’t hard on him, he looked very, very tired crossing the line). So, yes, he might never run again let alone win again. But, on balance, I’m perfectly happy to take 12/1 for the Guineas and I think anyone who has a look back again at his Goodwood win might well be tempted too.
I’m sure I’ve just not being paying attention but what was the reason Expert Eye hadn’t seen a racecourse between Goodwood and Newmarket? A 74 day break in which time U S Navy Flag ran 3 times.
Charles, he scoped dirty on September 3rd scuppering any attempt at the two targets they were considering – National Stakes or Champagne Stakes.
Charles, he scoped dirty on September 3rd scuppering any attempt at the two targets they were considering – National Stakes or Champagne Stakes.
Thanks, I thought I’d just not being paying attention. I now remember he was due to run at Doncaster. This can’t have helped at all having the colt on the easy list for that amount of time.
Well done to winners and big priced placers.
I have my doubts this race will work out though.
With the hit favourite running so badly it left the race open to an upset. This was more likely if we consider that the original second favourite Emaraaty was only an egg and spoon race winner at odds of 4/9. The Gosden colt had tons to find with US Navy Flag but was only 1 point bigger at 6/1. Absolute nonsense.
Theobald had gone the wrong way throughout the season and Richard Fahey had a neck running Great Prospector here after seeing him beaten in two sales races. He had no chance at this level. Cardsharp peaked when beating US Navy Flag in the July Stakes but he has receded while the O’Brien horse has been improving. This was Cardsharp’s 10th start and he seems fully exposed.
The Racing Post gave Expert Eye as running to 94, which is 24 lbs below his official mark of 118. I feel he may have run to less than that myself. Seahenge is the horse given as running to his form on 109.
The big problem I have is that we have to accept that BOTH Mendelssohn and Threeandfourpence have made huge leaps in form of 31 lbs and 23 lbs respectively. Those are serious improvements on 4th and 3rd starts. Mendelssohn in particular is hard to fathom making more than two stones improvement on his 4th start. Normally a horse making that big an improvement will do it from 1st start to second start. Improvement thereafter tends to be in smaller chunks.
US Navy Flag was given a rise of 6 lbs to 122 and that leaves him little wriggle room for getting any better over the winter. I suspect he didn’t have to improve to win the Dewhurst but time will tell.
I have serious doubts that Mendelssohn suddenly became a 115 rated horse.
A race to be cautious about I feel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
haven’t followed Flat racing seriously for more than 30 years. I try to keep tabs on the group races but that’s about it so I couldn’t offer any examples of performance like that (injured or not) bar Gorytus who’s been mentioned before.
I can offer another one- Emotionless. Bombed out in the dewhurst after being much hyped and didn’t even run in the guineas.
Actually if you look through the roll call of Dewhurst stakes winners it seems to throw up an upset more often than not- plenty of big priced winners in there. Maybe the end of season feel some horses just go off the boil.
The big problem I have is that we have to accept that BOTH Mendelssohn and Threeandfourpence have made huge leaps in form of 31 lbs and 23 lbs respectively.
But weren’t you making the same arguments last season Steve with Lancaster bomber and that form ended up being held up when Churchill went on to win the guineas in similar fashion?
I think some horses just improve and also you have to take into account their ratings can go up on account of running in much better contests.
I can offer another one- Emotionless. Bombed out in the dewhurst after being much hyped and didn’t even run in the guineas.
Emotionless had indeed had 2 victories but in those he’d registered Topspeed figures of 74 and 78. At Goodwood, Expert Eye hit a Topspeed of 103, a figure it took US Navy Flag 9 runs to achieve.
Emotionless was 7/4 in the Dewhurst. Expert Eye was shorter than Frankel.
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