- This topic has 225 replies, 48 voices, and was last updated 19 years ago by
.
- Posts
You know when I read the lengthy, closely-argued musings of you all on the relative merits of Detroit and Eustace, it occurs to me that you may be wasting an awful lot of time at this stage of the betting market on the Champion Hurdle.
I mean the time to bet on both was when they were in handsome double figures, so that it didn’t matter a lot even if they both got beat. Do you get my drift?
When the price is right you can afford to bet on a horse or horses whose relative merits are close enough to be disputed at length.
Otherwise, save your dough for a horse that is a bit better class than his rivals and looks likely to have been aimed at the race.
Well, you probably have either taken the long prices or <br>are refraining from betting on it now, as my point overlooks the significant factor that exchanging opinions can be enjoyable in its own right.
(Edited by Grimes at 3:07 pm on Dec. 11, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 3:10 pm on Dec. 11, 2006)
Grimes, the 1st time I saw D C was after its last but one race, I liked what I saw an got 4/1, better than the 5/2 with Ladbrokes now but I dont think I was aware of D C when double figures were available, wish I was tho! ;)
A really good debate this …the forum at its best
Also, he has plenty of racing experience, including seven races over hurdles, and may not improve hugely for ‘racing experience’ either, if you get my meaning. He certainly races like he knows what his job is, which perhaps limits his ability to find more improvement through ‘experience’
At the same time, there is definately scope for improving his hurdling (which may be the one thing that lets him down come March)
No punters ever likely to find an unsympathetic ear in me, Grasshopper! I take so many prices, when I shouldn’t, and so many SP, when I should have taken a price; horse falling when running well, you know what this game’s like. So many tales of woe.
On a more cheerful note, Chris B25, I’ve found Mordin’s comments re class horses’ returning fast times, a gold mine. Only today, Group 2 winner, Siberion turned up at 16s, straight after Nicholas said he’d be betting on him next time oot. 6s would have been a ludicrous price, and I’d have taken it. I took 12!!!
Sure, he fell in his only chase so far, but had been jumping well until then , well into the race.
I question the wisdom Of Mark Dwyer in letting the grey horse settle down in front for over a mile. He jumped poorly at that stage. The other horse is probably the fastest hurdler racing. He won the champion hurdle leading from flagfall. He should have gone out and raced the race he did in the Champion and tested the jumping of Detroit City at high speed. If they had jumped together like they did separately he would possibly have jumped the last at least even with the grey. Then the run in would have been a real test of stamina and guts.
Taken from my own ante post analysis…
<br>"Philip Hobb’s 4-year-old Detroit City is the current ante-post favourite for the race. He was an impressive winner of the Triumph Hurdle in March and followed up with a fine performance at Aintree in the 4yo Novices’ Hurdle the following month, which marked him down as a top-class contender for all the major graded races this season. After landing a gamble in the Cesarewitch in October, he returned to hurdles with a visually impressive victory in the Greatwood at Cheltenham in November. A length defeat of dual champion Hardy Eustace in the Boylesports International (formerly the Bula) last week saw him consolidate his position at the head of the market and many good judges see the grey as an obvious choice.
Personally I can’t see Detroit City winning in March and I’ll be taking him on with some confidence. I feel it is a tough ask for any 5yo- even one as robustly built as he- to win a Champion Hurdle, especially after a season which has basically been extended by his participation in the Cesarewitch. I think the festival may prove a race too far, and while I’d expect him to acquit himself well, I think he has at least 5lb to find on a couple of the Irish raiders. The form in front of Ameeq means nothing in the context of a Champion Hurdle, and his recent defeat of Hardy Eustace in receipt of 4lb by a diminishing length served as proof in my eyes that he will need to wait at least another year for his turn. Indeed, I fancy Hardy Eustace to turn that form around come March, granted the stronger pace which looks almost guaranteed."
Just my tuppence on the subject. Can’t see him doing it and I think a few of the prices at the moment are hilariously off target!
<br>Dear readers,<br>Forgive me writing off the top of my head, of course it is Conor O’Dwyer. Did you read Chris McGrath in the Independent? "It would not be remotely surprising if Hardy Eustace were to beat Detroit City a dozen lengths in March but the reverse would be astonishing"<br>Dec.12.2006<br>Interesting!
I read that andyod too!
I like Chris Mcgrath, but this seemed to be oddly cranky comment. Im not at all sure where HE is going to find another 12 lengths from, even with 4lbs less….
Sense that there was something more than form analysis behind his assesment…
Sense that there was something more than form analysis behind his assesment…
You mean the form assessment that states Hardy Eustace was the best horse in the race considering he was beaten a lenght giving 4lbs?
The proximity to Kawaingo at Cheltenham and where he finished today tells you something is definitely wrong and it ain’t nowt to do with race Pace or distance
<br>Maybe they have gone to well too often and horse has said feck you Mr
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 3:24 pm on April 14, 2007)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.