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Likely to run three but that could change the three being, City Of Troy, Los Angeles and Euphoric.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Yeah just read that about Diego, which is a shame – true that LA manage to win 1st time out but he doesn’t seem to do anything very quickly (which I don’t think had anything to do with it being his seasonal debut) and I can well see him getting a bit lost coming down the hill and then maybe staying on when its all too late.
Fully agree about question marks on most of the field – Ambiente Friendly I think is the most solid option all round in that he is proven at the trip and on a very similar downhill course and goes on most ground (won on good and good to soft and run well on soft) – he probably just doesn’t want extremes of going and to me he should be the clear favourite based on what we have see so far this season.
“(which I don’t think had anything to do with it being his seasonal debut)”
Is that 1st run of the season a ceiling of his acceleration with 2 extra furlongs to come that’s the question, we will find out Saturday. How ‘quick’ was Ambiente Friendly in the Fielden Stakes first time out? He was a different horse 2nd time up.
Isn’t there always question marks about all the runners in any Derby?
Indeed, any race?Value Is Everything“Indeed, any race?”
Depends on the race and how an individual feels about it when looking at the field.
I’ve already backed Ambiente Friendly, but there are question marks about him.
A) Will he be as effective if there’s rain / a softer surface?
Although has some form on a softer surface, by far his best run was in the Lingfield Derby Trial when the ground was pretty fast (beat racing Post Standard by 1.71 seconds)… And has an action that is usually at its best on a sound surface.B) Will he settle?
Has raced keenly and is more excitable than most in the field. Will the prelims get to him? In the race he settled better (though not perfect) at Lingfield, but that was in a truly run race. If they don’t go a good pace in the Derby he might be too free again. For me, this is the main reason Havlin has got the ride. Thought to be good at settling horses.C) Will he be able to find a way through and / or give away too much ground coming wide?
He’ll certainly be held up for a late run and will need either luck in running or come wide like he did at Lingfield.D) Is his breeding good enough?
An average Derby would require AF to improve again (on that Lingfield form) to win… And he’s already out-performed his pedigree, so is less likely to show as much improvement than some of his better bred rivals.Value Is EverythingThe softer the better for LA me thinks as that brings in his trump card (stamina) and may inconvenience other rivals far more, I would be less concerned about the going for AF as I would be for COT for the the increased emphasis on stamina.
COT might be too free going up 4F in trip and will they have to completely rethink the tactics as I am not sure Ryan will really want to try and make all (which has been COT MO) but if he does surely they won’t let him try to dictate with an easy lead. LA would be most inconvenienced by a slowly run race, will his jockey need to force the issue to ensure it is a proper stamina test and thus compromise his own chance?
You could easily argue that every horse in the race will have to improve on what they have done this season to win (some a whole hell of a lot more than AF) and no doubt some will but to me AF has already outrun his breeding by winning over neigh on 12F at Lingfield despite not fully settling at Lingfield…..so room for more improvement if he settles and a well run race will help that.
Being that Epsom is now currently soft (good to soft in places) with the soft being pretty much from the 6F shute on the hill all the way to the winning post and the forecast is for rain most days to Friday (15mm+ potentially), is Ancient Wisdon the forgotten or overlooked horse?
Bear in mind that he has won on both soft and heavy ground (beating both AF and Dancing Gemini in the process) and he has a marked knee action which would be well suited by softer ground especially when galloping down hill.
One final thought, with all the money coming for LA, could it be conceivable that Ryan jumps ship from COT to LA if the ground stays soft or gets softer?
I think there is zero chance of Moore getting off City Of Troy.
Ginger – all fair points about Ambiente Friendly. I wonder if connections will opt to put a red hood on him?
I live about six miles from Epsom racecourse and we have had brief but heavy showers this afternoon.
LD Rowlands has been pretty positive on LA in his blog so i’d say thats a big contributor to his shortening odds.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Nah,
It was me tipping Los Angeles on TRF that shortened him up, Jack.
Value Is EverythingMoney continues to come for Ancient Wisdom
Into a best of 5/1 now
Los angeles a best of 9/2
City of troy and Ambiente friendly on the drift
Only the meerest fraction between City Of Troy and Los Angeles in the betting now.
By the end of the day Los Angeles could be outright fav.Value Is EverythingZero chance of Moore jumping ship unless City Of Troy doesn’t run. He’s never even ridden this Los Angeles.
I hope it happens because I fear City Of Troy but couldn’t possibly back him whereas I don’t fear this Los Angeles at all, he’d be one of the worst favourites for the Derby I can remember but then that probably tells you a lot about the race.
Not sure what sums up how bad this race looks – the fact that City Of Troy is still favourite despite a pathetic run in the Guineas or Los Angeles is second favourite despite all his performances having absolutely zero wow factor? By Coolmore standards Los Angeles doesn’t even have a fantastic pedigree. Outside the front two Ancient Wisdom looked like a two mile plodder at York.
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