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Derby 2024

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  • #1695721
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 7425

    I doubt it’ll be good to firm. There is some rain around next week, so maybe good to soft come race time.

    Mon – 3mm
    Tue – 4mm
    Wed – 4mm
    Thu – 2mm
    Fri – mainly dry
    Sat – dry

    Source: myweather2 Epsom racecourse weather forecast currently

    #1695728
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 32210

    Point is the rain is I believe predicted in the form of showers, Mike. Not prolonged rain. So it is possible (maybe not probable but “possible”) many of those showers will miss the course… And if they do then proper good-firm is possible. Just like Newbury.

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    #1695730
    LD73
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    • Total Posts 2985

    They will probably water if proper good to firm is likely :wacko:

    #1695731
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    I have been studying the replays of the Guineas.
    City Of Troy was a very good mover as a two year old. You might say exceptional.
    I can’t really say that about him in the Guineas.
    Did he make a bad step around 20 seconds in and / or again around 38 to 40 seconds…
    Either way, he didn’t seem to be moving well when in behind and / or going past the post? :unsure:

    If so it could give a possible reason for a better performance in The Derby.

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    #1695732
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    “They will probably water if proper good to firm is likely”. :wacko:

    If proper good-firm they may well call it “Good”, LD. but we may be able to see it’s proper good-firm by the race times – just like Newbury.

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    #1695733
    zilzal
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    • Total Posts 1092

    He certainly hit some kind of “wall” at the 2f mark at around 70secs probably because he was ridden too keenly IMHO

    #1695737
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Inisherin was ridden just as (if not more) prominently as City Of Troy, Zilzal… And lasted a lot longer.

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    #1695738
    zilzal
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    • Total Posts 1092

    Inisherin had the benefit of a previous outing and the Spring in North Yorkshire was probably as not as severe as in in south Tipperary – among the ten wettest Marchs in met records – I personally thought that pace was bordering on suicidal in the circumstances

    #1695747
    LD73
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    • Total Posts 2985

    Think Ryan would have mentioned something about him not moving well in behind if that had been the case Ginge – I can’t have him not being fit enough to run either and Aidan’s excuses that he viewed him as a god so he didn’t work him hard enough……..and that his heart rate was too high from getting upset for the mere seconds he was in the stalls before they opened nonsense.

    My guess is that he probably worked him to a similar level as to how he did through the latter part of his 2 yr old season and maybe he was arrogant enough to believe all of his own hyperbole that he was so much better than everything else that he wouldn’t need to turn up cherry ripe on the day to win the race.

    As I have said previously, until proven otherwise, I am fully prepared to write it off as the horse having an off day (that totally caught Aidan out) but I can’t have him for the Derby and if last year had never of happened, I suspect nobody else would either.

    #1695756
    Avatar photoGladiateur
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    There’s an old adage that you should always forgive a horse one bad run.

    It’s also possible that City Of Troy has not trained on. Or he may have some as yet undetected physical or mental problem.

    We’ll find out which one it is on Saturday.

    #1695761
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    RYan would not have said anything that might change how breeders look at a prospective Coolmore Stallion, LD. Ditto Aidan. It is finacially best for Coolmore if breeders believe it is human’s fault.

    The fact COT ran below form may well be because the vast majority (not just COT) of AOB three year olds have needed their first run of the season. Weather has been extremely poor in that part of Ireland this Winter / Spring. However, I am looking into why he should’ve been so far below form. There must be another reason for that.

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    #1695762
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    The amount he was below form means it must have been more than “not training on” Glad’. If he was exactly the same horse as at two (ie without making any physical progress whatsoever) that 2yo form would still have seen him finish with Haatem and Ghostwriter.

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    #1695763
    TheTinMan87
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    • Total Posts 967

    I thought it was more reminiscent of what happened with Air Force Blue than say a Pinatubo, you obviously do get extremes of not training on. Air Force Blue ran with a tongue tie for the first time at 3, perhaps indicative that all wasn’t well and he ran generally that season like a horse who had some major physical ailments to go with possibly not training on. Lets hope City Of Troy doesn’t go the same way. We got the comments about Auguste Rodin last year after the Guineas that he was never travelling after getting interference early on in the race. They are slightly exaggerated excuses but to be fair that did happen. City Of Troy travelled with plenty of zest for a long way and then he emptied completely. Lace of fitness would be the only plausible excuse I’d be prepared to forgive in those circumstances but you don’t leave the favourite for the 2000 Guineas and something potentially as valuable to them for breeding that short of fitness.

    #1695773
    Blackcountry Kid
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    • Total Posts 667

    Been looking into City of Troy’s pedigree and to my mind it’s not by any means certain he will stay the distance?
    good luck to all

    #1695774
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 7425

    Not saying he’s definitely going to win but Los Angeles does tick a lot of the boxes. A grade 1 winner at 2, a Derby trial winner, unbeaten, will stay, good ground or softer won’t be an issue, and a little less exposed (fewer runs) than the others in single figure odds.

    #1695783
    LD73
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    • Total Posts 2985

    Los Angeles to me looked rather ponderous at Leopardstown (all 5 runners covered by just over 2L and it didn’t appear to be a strong renewal) and being that he won over 10f on very soft ground at 2 (outside of the 4th that day who was 5th in the French 2000g after winning twice over a mile, that form isn’t much to write home abou either). I think that even with a step up to 12F he might not have the tactical speed for a Derby….he looks tailor made for the St Leger (though don’t tell Aidan I said that 😉 ).

    Interestingly, I was pleasantly surprised by Diego’s run in the aforementioned French 2000g on ground I really didn’t think he would like (given how he hated it in the Futurity last year) and with another 100 yds or so I think he would have won the race.

    Being related to Broome and Point Lonsdale you would imagine he is crying out for the 12F, I just hope he is allowed to run on his own merits and not used as a sacrificial lamb for Ballydoyle’s current all time poster child COT.

    Diego is generally around 16s but still as big as 20s with a couple of bookies and that does surprise me.

    #1695784
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 7425

    Diego isn’t running that’s why he’s 20s. AOB says he runs 3.
    It was LA’s seasonal debut he could easily have ran ‘ponderous’ and got beat like a lot of AOB seasonal debutants. If he comes on for it which is almost guaranteed, he looks to have a solid chance imo with so many question marks hanging over a lot of them.

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