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“Stats for the lazy, Mike.
Any such stat should surely be trying to weed out non-stayers, but that one doesn’t.”From the Racing Post. You can do what you want with them.
Not sure they are for the lazy
They give you a good idea which type of profile horse wins each particular race
They likely won’t help you find any extra winners but are likely to put you off backing plenty of losers
Just one of the things to look at when analysing a race
Myweather2 and Met Office showing that Epsom racecourse will miss the heavy showers tomorrow.
Met office shows the racetracks getting it between 1-4 mike with a slight break in amongst those times
Search for the racetrack specifically on the met office app
Yeh i know myweather2 has 2-3, what I was trying to say is it’s not the heavier amount of rain that was feared earlier in the week by the clerk of the course if it turns out to be correct.
“They likely won’t help you find any extra winners but are likely to put you off backing plenty of losers”.
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They’d also put you off many winners, FF.Macduff imo has the profile of one that could improve a good deal for the step up in trip.
As a two year old he was second in a listed mile race – unable to quicken… Then a never nearer staying on 4th in the 1 mile Group 2 Royal Lodge.
Then last time out – in April of his three year old career – he was a staying on second in the 10f Classic Trial. A horse by Sea The Stars out of a half Sister to Kingman… Does it really matter if he hasn’t won at a mile+?…And yet a winner of a mile maiden – showing form vastly inferior to what Macduff showed at the distance – that’s somehow fine for a mile and a half Group 1 race is it?
This type of stat is too simple and imo worthless.
Value Is EverythingThing with showers is that they defy prediction. The ones forecast for tomorrow are potentially very heavy but localised so impossible to identify where they will hit. Epsom might get the full force or nothing at all. Nobody knows so hold all bets!
Yes tongue
They could get an inch they could get nothing
Just have to see which way the wind blows
And play accordingly when the going report is updated Friday morning
possible to allow for the probability of showers in the price you are willing to take, Tonge.
Just like allowing for the horse acting on the track or getting the strong pace it needs or any aspect of form. It’s all centred around probabilities of something happening. But I agree we should not see the showers as being definitely coming.
Value Is EverythingThe draw. City Of Troy gets the dreaded stall 1, from which only Oath and Adayar have won.
1 City Of Troy
2 Sayedaty Sedaty
3 Kamboo
4 Los Angeles
5 Mr Hampstead
6 Ambiente Friendly
7 Dallas Star
8 Macduff
9 Euphoric
10 God’s Window
11 Ancient Wisdom
12 Bellum Justum
13 Tabletalk
14 Deira Mile
15 Dancing Gemini
16 VoyageFor a perfect example of how to ride the race from stall one (and in a much bigger field too) just watch the start of Roberto’s Derby in 1972 – a fantastic ride from Lester to get the position he wanted.
This is my 100% book for soft ground, FF.
20.5% 4/1 Ancient Wisdom
20.5% 4/1 Los Angeles
19% 9/2 City Of Troy
12.5% 7/1 Ambiente Friendly
8% 11/1 Macduff
5.25% 18/1 Dancing Gemini
3.75% 25/1 Bellum Justum
2.75% 33/1 Euphoric
2.5% 40/1 Voyage
1.5% 66/1 Dallas Star
1.5% 66/1 Diera Mile
1% 100/1 Gods Wisdom
1% 100/1 Sayedaty Sedaty
0.1% 1000/1 Kamboo
0.1% 1000/1 Table Talk
0.05% 2000/1 Mr HampsteadValue Is Everything^ If it does happen to be good-soft then City Of Try would go back as favourite over Los Angeles with Ancient Wisdom as third fav… And Ambiente Friendly would close up on them a bit.
On Good ground I’d have City Of Troy further clear, with Ambiente Friendly desputing second favouritism with Los Angeles and Ancient Wisdom in a similar poition to AF in the above list.
Value Is EverythingComing back to why I’d see Los Angeles as a bad favourite…. he’s got no decent form basically. Euphoric who he beat a length in the trial is like a 40’s poke or he was. Illinois 1L in the Group 1 last year, Ambiente Friendly and Dallas Star both smashed him to pieces in trials. The fact Ryan Moore even rode Illinois that day. I can’t see how anyone can look at his form and think yeah he should be the favourite for the Derby. That French Group 1 he won, Dubai Mile won it the year before beating Arrest and Adelaide River. Dubai Mile went on to run quite well in the 2000 guineas and then came to the Derby as a 25/1 chance. He’s contesting favouritism partly because a) we’ve got a favourite with loads of question marks and b) because none of the decent trial winners are here bar Ambiente Friendly, its nothing to do with him as a horse which is why I don’t really fear him.
It is Los Angeles potential over further than he’s raced so far and on ground he’s proven on.
Yes, Ambiente Friendly beat Illinois by 4 1/2 lengths, but that would still put LA just 3 1/2 behind AF using the French Group 1 form… I’d discard the Dallas Star run because Illinois was having his first run of the season and we all know how much AOB’s have needed their first runs… And that’s another reason for LA…Despite it being LA’s first run of the season… And the fact it was only 1m2f (far too short)… And not a particularly truly run 10f at that… Los Angeles still won the Leopardstown Derby Trial, going away at the end.
ie Although his form could currently be rated 3 1/2 lengths behind Ambiente Friendly, LA is likely to come on a lot for his reappearance AND improve for the extra distance… And unlike COT or AF, soft is likely to suit him down to the ground… AND unlike AW and COT, LA is in form going into Saturday’s race.
And LA has the size and looks of a top class racehorse.
Potential means a lot in any Derby. And with all the above put together it would not surprise me if LA improves a stone on his current form.
Value Is Everything
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