Yorkshire Oaks 2008

[Anonymous]

Allegretto (63) – 231-84[/color:3m0s74oc]
Folk Opera (21) – 11422[/color:3m0s74oc]
Passage Of Time (19) – 3-4013[/color:3m0s74oc]
Promising Lead (54) – 412-11[/color:3m0s74oc]
Adored (39) – 01106[/color:3m0s74oc]
Cape Amber (8*) – 1-2693[/color:3m0s74oc]
Dar Re Mi (7) – 13311[/color:3m0s74oc]
Honoria (13) – 443916[/color:3m0s74oc]
Ice Queen (39) – 140162[/color:3m0s74oc]
Icon Project (33) – 2143[/color:3m0s74oc]
Lush Lashes (19) – 761512[/color:3m0s74oc]
Michita (63) – 1-9171[/color:3m0s74oc]
Sail (4) – 210706[/color:3m0s74oc]
Sweet Sixteen (8*) – 50080[/color:3m0s74oc]

Any thoughts for this fantastic race lads?

[clivex]

Could be a bit of a quick return for Dar rei Me, but she will probably like the ground. Im waiting to see if run is confirmed though

[Reference Point]

You can discount all of AOB’s for me. Ice Queen looked like a donkey until her last race and I think in retrospect that looks a poor Irish Oaks. Lush Lashes, I doubt if she will line up. I cant see her getting a mile and a half on this ground anyway so if she does line up then will be one to take on in my book.Folk Opera doesnt look up to it, neither does Allegretto even though she will certainly appreciate the true test of stamina. That to me narrows it down to the two Abdulla fillies and with Promising Lead maybe not making it then I shall side with POT provided Durcan rides her better than he did in the Nassau. She is in top form and deserving of winning a race like this. Even though she has won on the heavy in France, then hopefully it wont be as bad as it was at Sandown when she was tailed off in the Brigadier Gerard as then I will really be stuck for a winner!

[tenbob]

my ratings

143 lush lashes
139 michita
136 passage of time
134 allegretto
134 dar re mi
125 cape amber

will back lush lashes to win

[Fist of Fury 2k8]

Small case of, my testicles disappearing last time the Bolger filly ran.

I fully expect to get my voice back today when she anihalates this bunch.

Surely Lush Lashes only needs to stay out of trouble against this lot of one paced mules.

[MDeering]

Only the ever-improving Passage Of Time can give Lush Lashes a workout in this one – the softer conditions to Goodwood must be in favour of the Abdulla horse.

However, the 11/4 I see with Blue Square is not enough to convince me the 10lbs difference and a half decent ride/clear passageway would’ve meant Lush Lashes pounded her and Halfway To Heaven last start.

[ReasonoverFaith]

If this race were over 10F then Lush Lashes would be odds-on in my book…but it isn’t.

A couple of weeks ago Jim McGrath (Timeform) made a comment about the Oaks, referring to (what he considered) the suicidal pace at Epsom. Must admit I didn’t see it like that, but I wonder whether McGrath and the whole Timeform gang have downplayed the significance of Look Here’s performance.

I didn’t think Lush Lashes stayed 12F at Epsom. I know there’s a view that she didn’t handle the track, but she seemed close enough throughout the race. Having said all that, today’s race could turn out to be a sprint if nobody goes on. Cape Amber looks a right swine to settle and she made the running at Salisbury last time. Dar Re Mi surely wouldn’t want a slow pace as she stays further than 12F but I don’t see Peslier making it.

The uncertainty regarding pace plays in Lush Lashes hands and she’s obviously a worthy favourite but I’m not tempted at those odds. Michita ran really well at Ascot and won easily, but the form of that Ribblesdale is still under suspicion with me.

I like Passage of Time at present odds. She ran well (under a bad ride) in the Nassau, she stays 12F and is proven at this level.
I’ll go with her at present prices.

[Anonymous]

I very much doubt that Lush Lashes will last home.
For a horse reputed to be unsuited by the track at Epsom, she travelled supremely well until stamina became the issue, and I’d expect much the same today. No coincidence either, that her very best form is over a fast run 1m.
Passage of Time is also unconvincing at this trip. In all her 3 runs in excess of 10f she has failed to find much at the business end, and her Prix Vermeille placing came off an ordinary pace on ground appreciably faster than the official good.
Today’s pace is a worry, but surely 2 miler Allegreto wouldn’t want any hanging about, and you’d expect her to be at least as prominent as she was in her last try over this trip, her Yorkshire Oaks 2nd to Peeping Fawn.
For me, it’s Michita to still be there when all the rest have fallen into a hole,

[Colin Little]

Even though Passage of Time won over 1m2f as a 2yo, for some reason I’ve never really fancied her over 1m4f. This is a stiff 1m4f as well in terms of the track. I’d love to see a Cecil win, but if there’s a decent pace, my instinct is she will get out-stayed by something.

[Friggo]

You can place lay Lush Lashes at around 1-2, I think I’ll be having some of that. Running out of the dip is likely to find her out IMO.
I think Allegretto is a bit overpriced at 20 personally. She used to get a bit keen in the old visor, so back in it today I’d imagine she’ll lead them round and find out all the dodgy stayers. There are a few dangers obviously (that’s why Allegretto is such a price), but she’s produced form over 12f that can match any of the other proven stayers in the field.

[clivex]

I like Dar Rei Me at the prices. Its a quick return after last weeks run but that was comfortable and strikes me that she could be improving again

She will need to on musidora form of course, but I share the doubts about Lush Lashes staying (and worried that Manning will miss the turn too )

[davidjohnson]

A couple of weeks ago Jim McGrath (Timeform) made a comment about the Oaks, referring to (what he considered) the suicidal pace at Epsom. Must admit I didn’t see it like that, but I wonder whether McGrath and the whole Timeform gang have downplayed the significance of Look Here’s performance.

With a rating of 123, Look Here is rated only second to Zarkava among the 3-y-o fillies at 1m+. Her perspective comment for the Oaks reads

LOOK HERE had managed only second in the Lingfield Trial and was springing something of a surprise in going one better, but on the day she was an impressive and decisive winner, settled towards the outer halfway down the field going strongly and, having steadily moved into a challenging position halfway up the straight, readily settling matters once driven, staying on strongly to win going away, leaving a firm impression that the strong gallop played to her strengths; a sparely-made filly, who certainly didn’t catch the eye beforehand (again warm and edgy, also attended by 2 handlers), she’s proved herself a high-class performer regardless and connections now have plenty of options over the next few months, though they’ve all but ruled out a crack at the Irish alternative, reasoning that the filly needs more time between her races, and, to our eyes, she looks an ideal sort for the St Leger later in the year (will stay 1¾m).

What do you feel has been downplayed?

[davidjohnson]

Back to the Yorkshire Oaks, I see things in similar fashion to Reet. I don’t think you can put forward not handling the track as an excuse for Lush Lashes. Look at Cape Amber and Michita for fillies that didn’t handle the track. It was either a case of not staying, or racing too close to a very strong gallop. Everything else that races prominently was well beaten, and the likes of Clowance and Moonstone both came from well off the pace, whilst the winner was no closer than mid-field.

I had a really good bet on Lush Lashes at Goodwood, and though she got beat, I think she had more in her favour that day and yet is a shorter price here. I would give Michita plenty of credit for her Goodwood and Ascot wins, perhaps more for style than substance, but after Ascot I had her down as capable of making an impact at Grade 1 level and she gas fewest doubts about her being at her best on the ground and at the trip. I think it will be in Dar Re Mi’s own interests to make this a good test, and that will also suit Michita.

[MDeering]

Decided not to play here, but my prediction is:

Yep – Lush Lashes heading out of the dip is reeled in by any or all of Allegretto, Dar Re Mi, Michita and Passage Of Time. Of those, the latter two can thrust their way out of the dip more strongly so I would leave the race to them, with Passage Of Time improving greatly and to appreciate the conditions.

1. Passage Of Time
2. Michita
3. Dar Re Mi
4. Lush Lashes

[underscore]

Decided not to play here, but my prediction is:

Yep – Lush Lashes heading out of the dip is reeled in by any or all of Allegretto, Dar Re Mi, Michita and Passage Of Time. Of those, the latter two can thrust their way out of the dip more strongly so I would leave the race to them, with Passage Of Time improving greatly and to appreciate the conditions.

1. Passage Of Time
2. Michita
3. Dar Re Mi
4. Lush Lashes

So you have totally changed your mind in a couple of hours? Was your initial conclusion based on zero analysis or are you being led by what others are posting. Just a question.

[MDeering]

Of course!

In fact, the post just done was zero analysis, too.

[clivex]

Really isnt that much between Dar rei me and Michita if Arthurs Girl used as a yardstick

[Author]

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