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If you wanted to find the horse that went off the favourite of this race for the past couple years, all you had to do was find the most impressive performance by a Scat Daddy colt trained by Aidan O’Brien.
Last year it was Declarationofpeace, and the year before it was Caravaggio, who both went off as the 13/8 favourite – this year I think it could be Sergei Prokofiev who takes up that mantle.
This €1.1mil son of Scat Daddy, trained by Aidan of course, was very impressive in breaking his maiden at Navan on Monday. A big, precocious colt, he travelled like much the best horse in the race before quickening away to put 7 and half lengths between himself and the others in a matter of strides. He really should have won on debut too, except that Donnacha – under strict orders no doubt – gave him as easy a time as possible. The ground was soft that day, although as I mentioned, he ran very well on the polytrack at Dundalk so I don’t feel ground will be an issue. Important to note Ryan Moore made the trip over to Navan especially for him – as it definitely wasn’t for Washington DC!
Aidan said post race they would like to get another race into him before Ascot, as he was still a bit green, and he mentioned the Marble Hill or the Rochestown as possible targets.
Powers have him as a low as 9/2 which is always a good sign, I can see him going off a lot shorter than that even. Hopefully he’s more of a Caravaggio rather than a Declarationofopeace.
Sergei Prokofiev 8/1.
As soon as he won the other night, he looked like their Coventry horse.
Had Caravaggio antepost two years ago when he won this race and I too fancy Sergei for this. Not played let but will almost definitely be having a bet on him in the next couple of weeks.
I stuck him up in my French Racing thread. Bet365 went 33/1 after he finished second on his debut. It was a race where he looked like the winner all the way but he ran that bit green and just lost out. He wasn’t fully wound up that day and was the pick on looks by a metric mile. Bet365 only quoted him at the time they put prices up.
Next time up he was a shade green again but looked better in terms of fitness and coat condition, he travelled well again but this time he really picked up when asked and drew right away from them. Bet365 initially went 14/1 afterwards and other firms offered odds on him, generally 8/1. Bet365 then cut Sergei Prokofiev to 10/1 and then 8/1 as other horses came into the book on the race. Paddy Power quote only the favourite and at a miserly looking 9/2
I felt that after recording 85 on debut, he would be capable of reaching 100 on his second start and yesterday the Racing Post awarded him 101 on their ratings. My thinking was that he could be capable of rising to 110 in his third race. I hope he goes Marble Hill, as Caravaggio did in his year and especially now that the race is 6F, rather than the 5F it was when Caravaggio landed it cosily.
In Caravaggio’s year it seemed initially that he would head to the Norfolk, so I lost my ante-post at 10/1 for that race but I covered him in the Coventry as soon as that became the target. Lightning might not necessarily strike in the same place twice but Sergei Prokofiev is just 6 lbs behind the 107 that Caravaggio was after his second start, so he is in the ballpark.
I could do with a winner at a big price as I have had an awful start to the season. As always though, getting the odds is the easy part of the equation, getting them to actually win is another matter altogether. I’ll probably prove the Jonah on everyone else.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fully agree with you guys. 8/1 is big enough for me. Just need a bet365 account 😂
Cracking price steve!
He was 8/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill as well Viktors but they cut him to 5’s and 6/1. Probably saw PaddyPower’s odds and thought they had better trim him to keep in line.
Stablemate So Perfect (Scat Daddy Filly) made a winning debut over 5F at Navan and she is quoted at 10/1 for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. She earned 82 for that effort but it was the manner of her win that was impressive. She came under hand riding just before the 2F marker and looked to have plenty to do but she picked up well for just being pushed along and although the jockey waved the whip about a bit, he only gave her one tap to prevail by a short head.
I thought So Perfect made a very encouraging start and I suspect she needs 6F already. There may be others to come of course but I feel another win before Ascot would see her 4/1 so I think 10/1 is worth a go. Bet365 are the ones sticking their neck out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Best price for Sergei Prokofiev is now 11/2 with Bet365.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well the form of The Irish Rover took a knock and with it Sergei Prokofiev to some extent. Third in the race where Sergei Prokofiev was second on debut, The Irish Rover went off 1/7 Fav in a four runner affair at Ascot, but instead of the win the odds suggested he would secure cosily, he managed to finish 4th of the 4 runners, albeit in a blanket finish of nose, neck and short head margins.
It just shows that because one horse comes on a lot for his first run, it doesn’t mean that those in behind him will do likewise. Sergei Prokofiev was given a 16 lbs rise from his first run but The Irish Rover was given a 4 lbs rise for his second start. Had he come forward the extra 12 lbs that Sergei Prokofiev had done, he would have scored easily. He should never have been 1/7 based on a rating of 80 on his first start.
Sergei Prokofiev himself is entered in a race at Naas Monday. It is a 6F race so if he keeps that engagement it will be encouraging that the Coventry is his Ascot target.
There is more 9/2 than 5/1 for Sergei Prokofiev on the Coventry boards now and another good win will seehim pretty skinny you feel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To be fair to The Irish Rover though Steve, he reared as the gates opened and lost a good five lengths. You can’t do that over 5f. I thought he did amazingly well to be beaten in a blanket finish myself. If he’d have broken on terms, he’d have won easily I’d say.
Agreed, Nausered. Thought that was a massive effort by The Irish Rover all things considered, and should be marked up accordingly.
He would have probably won nicely, but the bare form of that race could well be suspect.
a couple of debutants in there and the 3 of them (aside from Irish rover) finished in a line.
I would imagine SP is the better horse considerably.
The price Steve might have looked skinny, but when you consider how close he was to SP, who is now outright fav for Coventry you can see why.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!i think backing at 1/7 is silly at the best of times but when you have unknowns in the field and are dealing with short distances it’s a recipe for disaster.
Only once did I end up on a horse at 1/7. I had done an accumulator and the final leg was a Mick Channon horse who was 13/8 in the morning. The first four in the bet all won and then the heavens opened, leaving the ground heavy. There were so many non runners that the Channon horse went off 1/7 Fav and promptly got shafted. He ran a couple of weeks later and bolted up at 10/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lol Steve, i bet that wasn’t pleasant!!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I struggle to find reasons to back horses at less than 4-1, let alone 1-7. I have backed Sergei Prokofiev at 8/1 with bet365, after reading this thread (thanks guys). I have him in a single, and a double with Laurens in 1000. I watched the Ascot race to see how The Irish Rover got on.
If anything, I’d say he’s franked the form a touch with that run. Five lengths start is massive over 5f, he did incredibly well to make up that ground, and still look like the winner 200 yards out. He’d have won very easily with a clean start.
Up the Sergei
Sergei Prokofiev does not go at Naas tomorrow but runner up Pride Of Pimlico takes on some Scat Daddy and No Nay Never horses and has to concede weight, so it could be a pointer to Sergei Prokofiev’s overall level of form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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