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Not sure there is any obvious evidence that the English Guineas was better than the French version, so I am happy to stick with Rouhiya at 14/1 as opposed to 6/1. She owes me nothing, and I thought she was value for a good bit more than her winning margin. Ground on the quick side would be preferable, and a better draw quite helpful. She seems to have a nice bit of speed so should be able to hold a position. Straight after the Guineas this race was considered to be a more likely option than the Prix De Diane.
Most 2yo form has looked pretty rubbish. She has clearly had a setback, has to prove she has trained on, and is good enough. Far too many doubts so happy to oppose at 4/1.
If Opera Singer takes the same sort of step forward from her first run as some of O’Brien’s have, I would expect her to win here.
Keeping the faith with elmalka
This track should suit her much better
She will be rattling home in the final furlong
Hopefully fallen angel and opera singer go hard up front and set it up for a closer
Ramatuelle also very interesting if coming over and played later
FALLEN ANGEL – 7/2 WIN (Paddy Power)
Karl Burke says this is the plan for her and I feel confident she is back to her best after her last win…
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Oisin Murphy booked for ramatuelle
If played later than at newmarket she may just have too much speed for these
A fascinating race
Couldn’t put anyone off any of opera singer, elmalka, fallen angel and ramatuelle
Well perhaps I’d be surprised if opera singer didn’t reverse Irish guineas form with fallen angel
A lot will depend on the ground and pace.
Oisin certainly a plus for Ramatuelle’s chances, increased the pace too soon off what was already a truly run race at Newmarket – should’ve won. But she gives the impression in all her races that speed is her asset. I wouldn’t like to see too much rain putting the emphasis on stamina. She is tiny and therefore lacks the scope to improve, but if there isn’t much rain then 7/1 or even 6/1 will probably look tempting on the day.
I backed Elmalka in the Guineas, but if ridden in the same way then she will need the pace to be a strong one, or at least truly run. It was more a case of staying on at Newmarket than a turn of foot. She is almost as small as the French filly, but with only 3 runs to her name should be able to improve again here.
Vast majority of AOB’s coming on quite a bit for their first run. But Opera Singer was beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Fallen Angel, so she has quite a lot of improvement to make. Her two year old form won’t be good enough. I’d make the Coolmore horse favourite, but not by as much as the betting suggests. The Irish Guineas did favour prominent runners, but Opera Singer was ridden prominently as well as Fallen Angel. There’d also be a slight concern over Opera Singer if it were to become soft, whereas Fallen Angel acts well on it and hasn’t got much to find to be up to winning an average (median) renewal. That said, will Coolmore be putting in a pacemaker in to inconvenience her? Even so imo Fallen Angel is the current value.
Value Is EverythingFallen Angel out, and it looks like I might get my wish of relatively quick ground for Rouhiya. Market continues to give her little respect.
Top race, the one that stands out to me on price and form is PORTA FORTUNA. Course form might be a big enough factor and she’s double the price of RAMATUELLE. Clearly thrives on fast ground too.
I took 6/1.RAMATUELLE – 3/1 – WIN
However cannot leave out….
See The Fire – 28/1 – EW (Paddy Power)Rev.Forecast
Ramatuelle very unlucky not to win the 1000 Guineas and I think she will reverse the form with Elmalka today. She is a class filly and will love this ground,
Expecting a much improved run from See The Fire today also as she apparently disappointed in the 1000 Guineas but I thought she ran gamely in the circumstances. In view of 2000 Guineas winner Noteable Speach’s disappointing run on Tuesday and City Of Troy’s resurgence as the second coming, it will be interesting to see how Elmalka fairs today against those she defeated. Both Fallen Angel and Darnation have since gone on to win Group races and I think See The Fire may spring a surprise today and run a big race here.
This is the race I’m most looking forward to today.
Best of luck. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Was there any excuse for See The Fire? She was very well backed, and it looked an abysmal performance. I find the stable impossible, the southern equivalent of Mark Johnston. Media telling us what great form he is in – so good he hasn’t had a winner for 31 runners – and the two Abdullah horses that have been heavily supported this week have bombed.
I guess we’ll have to wait and see stilvi. She really did disappoint on Guineas Day but then so did a lot of the Fillies who have made a winning comeback and early on in the race she seemed to have every chance. She is certainly friendless and most punters and pundits are probably thinking the same as yourself.
One more chance for her IMO.
Let’s face it the Appleby yard also in abysmal form this week but hoping their luck will change with Mountain Breeze in the opener.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Opera Singer drifting like a barge isn’t exactly filling me with confidence.
Have added Elmalka w/o as cover.
I can see Opera Singer kicking early as she will get further. That will trouble Ramatuelle and Port Fortuna’s stamina. Flip flopping favourites, Ramatuelle 7-4 Opera Singer 3-1. I’d be happy with a 3-1 winner ;o)
Triptych,
Mountain Breeze is a strange one. I backed her early, and subsequently watched her form look less and less good. Last night it looked like she might even drift to 5/1, but now she is strong again. Who knows?
Many of the O’Brien runners are on the drift, including Opera Singer.
I have my doubts about Ramatuelle. Not sure that our Guineas was so much better than the others – as the market suggests – and Murphy isn’t going to suddenly inject any more stamina. I suspect she will struggle to get home, and will eventually cut back in trip. She was also an early type who went to Newmarket with a fitness edge, and a fair chance we might already have seen the best of her. You would think that she has less scope for improvement than most of the others.
Jac
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