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So one run represents a horse’s entire career?
Ginge is right – the “intelligent discussion” is rapidly dying out on this forum.
Its apparent he has not been the horse he was this season. He wasnt travelling like the old Constitution Hill and a poor, bitty ride didnt help.
He’s still a grade 1 horse and he’ll win again but he’s just not going to live up to the lofty heights of his novice season and fist in open company.
Hendersons had a dreadful time of it recently. Desperately hope he turns it around but i can see more woe coming this week with Jonbon for a start.
As (I think) I said earlier, Constitution Hill produced two (maybe three) performances to be entitled great. We shouldn’t forget just how sensational he was in the Supreme. He was unquestionably a great horse between March 2022 and March 2023.
Since then he hasn’t been and there has to be a strong doubt he will get back to that level as a 9 year old. He has had health issues and now his hurdling technique has gone. He jumped at least two hurdles big yesterday.
I believe his fall was caused by pressure and having to chase the game after his jockey put him in a poor position. It is academic but I don’t believe he would have beaten Lossiemouth.
I think the comments which some have found controversial are actually less to do with the horse and more to do with posters finding Henderson irksome. He undoubtedly wrapped the horse in cotton wool after his Supreme win. There was no good reason for him to not run at either Aintree or Punchestown. He has faffed around about the ground more than once and has too often taken soft options, such as running at Aintree in 2023 rather than Punchestown.
His owner also made some silly pub talk about emulating Dawn Run but then seemed content for the horse to be campaigned safely.
The fact of the matter is he has only won one Champion Hurdle. After his Supreme victory stroll, that has to be considered a disappointing return.
Constitution Hill has a deservedly high rating. But on this occasion I believe Timeform are correct in rating him a few pounds below the very best.
Whether it’s the cause of the falls or not, I find it hard to understand the tactics employed on CH in his last two races.
He’s the best horse and normally a fast and fluent jumper. When he won at Aintree two years ago, he made all the running and in most of his races from the Supreme win onwards, he was either leading or prominent and in front some way from the finish.
But in his last two runs, he’s not taken the initiative and therefore got into positions that have meant he’s not getting a clear run at the hurdles. If this was a reaction to his last flight blunder at Cheltenham in January, it’s not a very sensible one.
Maybe it’s not the horse that’s on the downgrade, but his trainer and jockey!
Aintree was his poorest previous run
extra distance cited for it
I can understand them not wanting to follow the early pace yesterday, may have left them open against Lossiemouth
the worst thing was getting locked in, no awareness as to what was happening, might happenCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Hes v v v good but a great , not so sure. Bugger all runs , ran time in supreme and a Champion hurdler once.
Stone of Folca ran time at Epsom .
Bronesbury was a great until he emptied a furlong pole .
Just ride him like hes best horse , get out on the lead , out of trouble ,clear view of hurdles , if he gets caught at line so be it .“Maybe it’s not the horse that’s on the downgrade, but his trainer and jockey!”
I think there is a lot to be said for that.
Take yesterday. Mullins 4 the rest nowhere, including Henderson. He was very lucky to get a Grade 1 at Cheltenham but he is miles off the pace now. He has been far too defensive with this horse.
As for De Boinville, all jockeys are entitled to make mistakes but that was taking it to extremes yesterday. It was inept and losing his position so badly was (in my opinion) the main reason for his fall.
Buckley didn’t look pleased yesterday and fully entitled to be annoyed.
The horse had just fallen for the second time in two starts, CAS.
Buckley was entitled to feel annoyed at losing two races The Hill had form to win.Value Is Everything“Whether it’s the cause of the falls or not, I find it hard to understand the tactics employed on CH in his last two races.
He’s the best horse and normally a fast and fluent jumper. When he won at Aintree two years ago, he made all the running and in most of his races from the Supreme win onwards, he was either leading or prominent and in front some way from the finish.
But in his last two runs, he’s not taken the initiative and therefore got into positions that have meant he’s not getting a clear run at the hurdles. If this was a reaction to his last flight blunder at Cheltenham in January, it’s not a very sensible one.
Maybe it’s not the horse that’s on the downgrade, but his trainer and jockey”!
————————–Good point Alan.
Although I do believe Nico is normally one of the best of a substandard lot, maybe not so good in recent months… Hopefully that is not terminal. Nico’s confidence seems low at the moment and that can alter what jockeys do in a race. But it happens to all jockeys from time to time. I remember even Ruby Walsh.I posted somewhere (maybe in the Gold Cup or GDC thread) that many of the Cheltenham favourites that ran poorly or fell were horses who’d got used to racing prominently in their recent starts… And changed tactics at Cheltenham. Yes, Constitution Hill and Jonbon from Henderson / Nico, but also Ballyburn and Galopin Des for Mullins / Townend. As you imply, once horses enjoy and / or get used to a certain way of racing they are less likely to show their best form ridden a different way.
So doing something different is taking a chance. However, I can see why they may have taken those decisions with the first three of those. As you know, a prominent position can be the wrong place to be if there in an overly strong pace or if the horse is too free / pulls.
Ballyburn was going up in trip and can be a bit free even at lesser distances. Wasn’t sure to stay so in theory was held up in order to settle / get the trip.
Working the Champion Chase out I noted Soleness and Quilixios as needing to lead and Energumene as they’ll probably want to go back to disputing it after what happened at Ascot. ie Plenty of pace horses and likely to be strong and possibly an overly strong pace. So can understand him not being in the first two. I don’t think Nico wanted to be so far back on Jonbon, he just didn’t get a good start… Have also noticed over the years that usual prominent runners that cannot race prominently, do better if taken to the outside in mid-pack (with a clear view of the fences) than if on the inner mid-pack. With something directly in front of them. And although I would have expected Nico on Jonbon to go wide to go to the outside, his way was blocked by Soleness who also didn’t get such a good start. All leading to Jonbon making that mistake.
In the Gold Cup Ahoy Senor would be likely (and did) go back to front running tactics. The Real Whacker is imo at his very best from the front too, but runs well by not necessarily leading. Royal Pagaille went from the front in the Betfair, but only on sufference when nothing else went on – wanting a stamina test. Monty’s Star usually tracks the pace. So I don’t see why Townend didn’t race more prominently and the horse never seemed happy in mid-pack.
So to Constitution Hill. In the Champion Brighterdaysahead had a pacemaker that was expected to go off fast and the mare to follow the pacemaker like she did in Ireland. Burdett Road is also normally a front runner, but from what connections had said beforehand he could be expected to be further back this day. I don’t think it would’ve been a good idea to take on the pacemaker. Maybe race alongside BDA might have been a better idea. But if that encouraged them to go faster? State Man had looked a lttle below his best and BDA looked CH’s main rival. I suspect CH’s connections were thinking the most likely way of getting beaten was if CH and BDA went too strong a pace. So tbh I don’t blame Nico for sitting third. Although maybe he should have raced wider. I think it was Nathan who said BDA actually wrapped the top of the same hurdle Constitution Hill fell at. Did he lose concentration?
Yesterday, Tellherthename was the only front / prominent runner I could see other than Constitution Hill. So maybe he should have sat second. I can only think connections did not want to encourage a strong pace. imo Constitution Hill doesn’t truly stay 2 1/2. His win in the race not as impressive and not as good form as his 2m form. So in theory the slower they go the more chance he had and would beat them for speed. Can understand Nico taking an initial third position. However, he should not have allowed himself to get so close to the horses in front. Hemmed in and nowhere to go turning in. Definitely should have gone wide to ensure a clear view before 4 out.
Value Is EverythingGinger I respect you for sticking to your view but while you could argue that at Cheltenham the race hadn in earnest yesterday he made his mistake when the pace was picking up , without the mistake yesterday I still don’t believe he would have won , you are acting like all he has to do is turn up , well that’s def no longer the case , if they do go to Punchestown he’ll have a fresher State Man and Elliots mare is much more likely to show her form , will Nico confidently throw CH at a hurdle , no , they have to get his confidence back and I’m sorry doing that doesn’t win you Grade 1s
HDLG,
Different horses enjoy racing from different positions. Some enjoy leading. Some enjoy racing prominently with a clear view of their obstacles (without necessarily leading). Some like racing in mid-div, some held up and some dropped out… And some enjoy / are effective at two or more of these positions. It can also be what they get used to.As Alan says, Constitution Hill has got used to racing prominently with a clear view of his obstacles. It is very possible this is the way the horse enjoys best. Therefore, when Constitution Hill got behind horses he would not have been enjoying it as much and therefore he wouldn’t have been travelling as well as he would’ve had he been in a prominent position. Therefore, yes you’re right that he wasn’t travelling any better than Lossiemouth when falling. But that may well have been because of the position he was in at the time. Had he got over that hurdle and then got a clear view with nothing directly in front of him… I strongly suspect he would’ve gone back onto the bridle (at that point in the race)… It was too far out to be certain who would’ve won. He might not have stayed the trip.
I don’t see how I am “acting like all he had to do is turn up”. I said before the race was too difficult for me to work a 100% book out / have a bet. It was possible to work the race out as Constitution Hill having 10+ lengths in hand. But it was nowhere near conclusive that he’d be at that level. Especially as there was still a doubt about the trip and whether his jumping confidence / ability to jump would be compromised after his Cheltenham fall.
…And yes, if Constitution Hill goes to Punchestown then coming off now two falls means the mistakes might be ingrained. So he is even less likely to show that brilliance. ie IF Constitution Hill runs to form / runs to his best at Punchestown then make no mistake he will win. However, the price I am willing to take on any horse is more about what rating the horse is LIKELY to run to. It’s unlikely The Hill will be at his best and yes, therefore State Man would have a good chance of beating him if they both turn up… And yes Brighterdaysahead too. Although she was a long way below her best in the Champion, so has quite a bit to find in order to get back to her best too. I thought last year her below par showing at Cheltenham was due to the slow pace of that race, but she might just not like Cheltenham. Or equally as significant imo trainer form. Elliott’s horses were generally a bit below form both at Cheltenham and (so far) Aintree (Wodhooh an exception). I see he had a double in Ireland today. If he’s in good form when Punchestown starts then she’ll be of interest. She did run very well at Aintree after her poor Cheltenham run last year, which gives hope. Mullins has been in cracking form at both Spring Festivals. Is it usually the same at Punchestown in May? If BDA and CH turn up then personally I’d again expect CH to sit in a (wide this time) third or disputing second alongside BDA behind her pacemaker. I’d be very surprised if Nico doesn’t make a point of racing wider though – with a clear view of his obstacles. Maybe that will be enough to see CH jump better and – if not run to his best – run well enough to win. But after what’s happened it may well be State Man is the only one of the three to run.
Value Is EverythingI hope Constitution Hill runs at Punchestown but I will be very surprised if he does.
Connections could have taken him there in 2022 or 2023 when he was at his peak and looked invincible. Are they really going to go there after two falls (the latter quite a heavy one) and when he is possibly on the downgrade?
It doesn’t seem like the sort of thing Henderson would consider doing.
Normally I’d say definitely no, CAS.
But in previous years there’d be many more races to look forward to if missing Punchestown. This year he’s probably more likely to show his form in May as an 8 year old – even after what’s happened… Than he is in December a month before his 9th birthday… Which is quite old these days for a Grade 1 hurdler. So if showing up well at home it’s possible they might take a chance.Value Is EverythingIt makes sense Ginger but “take a chance” is something Henderson hasn’t been doing recently.
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