- This topic has 10 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
People are very quick to comment when a big drifter in the market runs a poor race, but nobody mentions when a horse drifts and wins. Take Let it Be at Catterick today – drifted from 5-2 to 5-1 and absolutely hosed up.
Isn’t it simply that punters’ opinions of the relative chance of each horse (and therefore the weight of money placed on each horse) differs from the bookmakers’ odds compilers’ initial view, and the prices need adjusting accordingly?
Just because a horse’s price alters doesn’t automatically mean there’s something sinister going on.
Let It Be was well tipped ( apart from Matron on Systems – could have been his money ). The Owner ALWAYS wants his horse to win – Sandy’s a local lad who owns a Roofing Company.
There’s no conspiricy here – Sandy doesn’t even tell his mates when LIB has a chance
– same story – LIB will try his heart out.Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
Benny
Of course, you’re absolutely right, but that does nothing for those in the game who think that somebody, somewhere has a hot line to one of the following:
Aidan O Brien
Mark Johnston
Mark Prescott
Michael Wigham
Barney Curley… apologies if I’ve missed out any of the usual suspects.
As far as exchanges are concerned, my view is fairly smiple: price movements reflect the movement of money, they do not reflect the chances of horses.
‘Big Mac’ is the worst offender in all this. Always trying to claim that somebody ‘knew’ something about the winning horse. The other week he came out with ‘the winner returned at 9/1 there, though Corals only had it at sevens in the morning – THEY KNEW!’
In an early ‘how to’ book about Betfair, there is a statistic about the records of horses drifting on the exchanges compared to those well-backed. Surprise, surprise the facts are rarely repeated during racing programmes.
Interesting post Benny B, any views on the psychic layers that were out in force that were happy to knock Beautiful Lady and Trip The Light out to any price today. Amazingly both were beaten a circuit out. Unfortunatly the case remains that with certain yards (not that I am casting any aspertions regarding the 2 involved with these horses today), the bigger value price a horse becomes, the lesser value it becomes in reality.
Drifters do win. However, these days if I see a horse that I have backed at a siginificantly lower price drift to big stakes near the off, I generally don’t go in again on the basis that the horse is "better value". Instead I tend to get a kind of sinking feeling – as the reality is that someone probably knows something I don’t about the horse’s chance….
It only takes one big player to take a position against a horse to cause a drift. I know people who are prepared to stand a horse to lose £20k and when they do the horses drift unless it is a particularly strong market.
It only takes one big player to take a position against a horse to cause a drift. I know people who are prepared to stand a horse to lose £20k and when they do the horses drift unless it is a particularly strong market.
I think your last comment is the most significant Wallace – it depsnds very much on the strength of the market and i strongly suspect a Wednesday afternoon at Catterick will not be that strong a market. If I s a horse I fancy drifting in what I consider a weak market I will probably have an extra play.
Converesly if a horse I fancy drifts in a strong market I will probably get the sweats!!! On the same token if I see a horse shortening dramatically in a strong markey I will also take a close look.
Of course what constitutes a strong or weak market is very subjective
Interesting responses chaps. I think the main point is that whilst there are certain yards who will "play the system", price movements, most of the time, reflect the market’s opinion on a horse’s chances, and do not necessarily mean that dark forces are at work.
An analogy would be a share price falling – it doesn’t necessarily reflect the prospects of the company, or anybody "knowing" something the rest of the market doesn’t.
Agreed re Big Mac by the way, he doesn’t do the game any favours with the "they knew" comments.
It only takes one big player to take a position against a horse to cause a drift. I know people who are prepared to stand a horse to lose £20k and when they do the horses drift unless it is a particularly strong market.
Wallace – Do you think these 20K layers have any concept of value. It seems to me some of these marked drifters can be knocked out to almost any price, yet the layers still know they have got value.
Have to say, in my experience, the winners I’ve been lucky enough to back split evenly between drifters and well backed. My biggest bugbear is the ”advice” given by the RP wrt bumpers and other races where the emphasis is on the inexperienced horse. Time and time again they advise that the market will be the best guide. Useless guidance when with weak markets being the norm and anything up to 80% of the runners being cut in price.
Stu
David, the people I know who play for big money certainly are value traders but when they have a particularly strong view on a horse it may seem they are prepared to oppose at any price.
Markets are manipulated on a daily basis with spoof trading on Betfair. This is very noticeable on quiet days when horses at the head of the market lengthen in price before contracting suddenly. With so many bots operating purely on the weight of money strategies they can easily be fooled into action.
– same story – LIB will try his heart out.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.