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I originally backed Foxtail Hill at 12’s but I am very positive about Potters Legend. Took 32’s on Betfair.
I was going to make the case for PL myself but I just read a very well written piece that makes a compelling case so I am cheating and pasting what was said below:
Showed string bumper and hurdles form. Beaten just 1 length by Ballyandy at the Open meeting in a bumper in 2015, his hurdles debut was behind Wait For Me and he finished off the season running a fine race in the Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree behind Ballyoptic and Bellshill. He seemed to just be outstayed by the 2 that day. Won his first 2 chases this season. A well beaten 4th behind Belami Des Pictons at Newbury on his 4th start. Made a couple of mistakes and then was hampered 3 out which meant he may have finished closer than the 14lengths back. The winner that day is now rated 148.
His final start though impressed me most. The Timeform Novice Chase on Trails day has thrown up both Rajdhani Express (2013) and Irish Cavalier (2015) in the past 4 seasons, along with Generous Ransom placing in 2015 so is a decent sighter for the race. Well beaten by Royal Vacation but that one has a live chance in the RSA and is rated 152 but he was hampered not once but twice by horses in front of him yet still managed to finish as close as he did. Had the 146 rated Ibis du Rheu behind him in 3rd. Has the option of the Kim Muir but doesn’t strike me like he wants the 3miles and his trainer recently stated:
It depends what the handicapper does. If he leaves him alone he could run in the two-and-a-half-mile novice chase or he might go for the Kim Muir. He will go straight to Cheltenham now. You would have to think that there is a good one in him
So with the handicapper keeping him on139 it looks like this will be the race. Never finished outside the top 4 with form lines of 122122311242. Those 2 seconds behind Ballyandy and Royal Vacation at the course show he has nothing to worry about with the course. One of the few races at the festival where the smaller yards do well. One I really like.I have to agree with you Charlie regarding Potters Legend and at 25/1 I have invested a few quid each way.
The other one I am really interested in is Itsafreebee which has Festival form behind Yorkhill and Yanworth over hurdles last year which is pretty darned good hurdle form. If it can transform that form to fences it would have a huge chance but IMO it wants decent ground so I may wait and see what the ground is like before investing in this one.
Nice one Charlie, I really like this race, and always a very decent betting heat.
Unusually for me, my attention was drawn initially to those at the head of the market. I’ve just been impressed by market leader Foxtail Hill this season, and don’t think he’s stopped improving. Although I’ve deserted him here, I would hope that he runs with credit, and I get the chance to catch him at Aintree or Ayr later in the season.
The 2 challenging for favouritism, Romain De Senam, and Its’afreebee, both did me proud last year, and it was hard to desert them. Romain should have won The Fred Winter, but he was given a terrible ride, and just missed out. Was still a nice return from him at a price, but the win would have been nicer. I feel they’ve been very careful preserving his mark this year, and reckon this has always been the plan. I think the same would apply to Freebee, who I was absolutely delighted with, when he bagged 3rd in The Neptune. I think he’s got miles in hand of his current mark, and quite simply, a danger to all.
Very hard to desert those three………..but I have.
I’m with you Charlie on Potters Legend, and have bet him to win at 25’s NRNB. Bet him a couple of times this season, but it was that run in The Timeform Chase you mentioned, that really sealed the deal. He’ll surely go here, and he’s a smashing price.
I’m equally as keen on Double W’s, and had this race in mind for him for a long time. He’s not done much wrong this season, and been watching his handicap mark like a hawk this year, in the hope he’d run in this. Trainer no stranger to this race, and I thought he’d be around 14’s, 16’s. Couldn’t believe he was 33’s, and went in each way.
Those are my main 2 bets, but also had a go on Gwencily Berbas, again at the 33’s, as I feel that his runs behind Bleu Et Rouge & Our Duke earlier in the season, were not runs for a horse who’s running of 138. Could easily see him making the frame.
Didn’t expect to have 3 in this, but Potters looks solid, and the other 2 looks way overpriced.
Potters Legend 25’s win
Double W’s 33’s ew
Gwencily Berbas 33’s ew
All NRNBI hope Dalgleish runs his horse in this. He’s very well handicapped but my gut feeling is that, even if he puts in a clear round of jumping, he’ll tire up the hill. Still an each way bet though.
Gold Present of Nicky Henderson’s is off 137 after giving Frodon (153) a real race last time in receipt of 1lb. Horse hung badly on the run in and may have been closer only for that. The worry is it’s flat course form but he has run well at Exeter early in his career when beat by Qualando giving it a nice few pounds in the race before he came out and won the Fred Winter. The horse is a really good jumper, did make a bad error in his 2nd last run and at the first in his first run but other than that he’s been superb. Personally think he is chucked in off 137. Yard have won this race a few years back with Radjhani Express. The worry with this fella is it’s all small field form but I think a big field will settle him. Needs 2 to come out so should get in handy. What ye think?
Also surprised Value At Risk has not been mentioned giving the Skeltons think he is a graded horse in a handicap, the obviously could not believe his handicap mark of 138 when it was allotted and protected it for this. The fact he ran poorly first time would worry me with him but other than that he seems to go well enough fresh.
Foxtail Hill, Romain De Senman, Value At Risk and Itsafreebee make obvious appeal towards the head of the market and don’t really look a whole lot of value a week out. I remember Brian Hughes when interviewed earlier in the season saying how highly regarded Double W’s is and Betfred are a stand-out 25/1 for Potters Legend who brings form into this deserving of being a lot shorter in the market. At 33/1 however, Mercian Prince looks a shrewd each-way bet for a stable working with a 33% strike rate in chases this season. A winner over 2m 5f in France last year, he bolted up on good ground at Southwell back in November before showing a very willing attitude to win off a mark of 128 at Sandown in January. Now the runner-up from that hasn’t been seen since but the 3rd fell when looking the winner at Kempton since and the 4th won at Ludlow last week. Since that victory at Sandown he fell 3 out off his current mark of 135 behind Royal Vacation at Cheltenham when holding every chance and last time out he finished 4th at Leicester but was only beaten 5 lengths after leading approaching the last on what was heavy ground. I think he has a chance and wouldn’t it be nice to see Amy Murphy collect a trophy next week?
Foxtail Hill, Romain De Senman, Value At Risk and Itsafreebee make obvious appeal towards the head of the market and don’t really look a whole lot of value a week out. I remember Brian Hughes when interviewed earlier in the season saying how highly regarded Double W’s is and Betfred are a stand-out 25/1 for Potters Legend who brings form into this deserving of being a lot shorter in the market. At 33/1 however, Mercian Prince looks a shrewd each-way bet for a stable working with a 33% strike rate in chases this season. A winner over 2m 5f in France last year, he bolted up on good ground at Southwell back in November before showing a very willing attitude to win off a mark of 128 at Sandown in January. Now the runner-up from that hasn’t been seen since but the 3rd fell when looking the winner at Kempton since and the 4th won at Ludlow last week. Since that victory at Sandown he fell 3 out off his current mark of 135 behind Royal Vacation at Cheltenham when holding every chance and last time out he finished 4th at Leicester but was only beaten 5 lengths after leading approaching the last on what was heavy ground. I think he has a chance and wouldn’t it be nice to see Amy Murphy collect a trophy next week?
Surely doesn’t get in off 135?
Foxtail Hill, Romain De Senman, Value At Risk and Itsafreebee make obvious appeal towards the head of the market and don’t really look a whole lot of value a week out. I remember Brian Hughes when interviewed earlier in the season saying how highly regarded Double W’s is and Betfred are a stand-out 25/1 for Potters Legend who brings form into this deserving of being a lot shorter in the market. At 33/1 however, Mercian Prince looks a shrewd each-way bet for a stable working with a 33% strike rate in chases this season. A winner over 2m 5f in France last year, he bolted up on good ground at Southwell back in November before showing a very willing attitude to win off a mark of 128 at Sandown in January. Now the runner-up from that hasn’t been seen since but the 3rd fell when looking the winner at Kempton since and the 4th won at Ludlow last week. Since that victory at Sandown he fell 3 out off his current mark of 135 behind Royal Vacation at Cheltenham when holding every chance and last time out he finished 4th at Leicester but was only beaten 5 lengths after leading approaching the last on what was heavy ground. I think he has a chance and wouldn’t it be nice to see Amy Murphy collect a trophy next week?
Surely doesn’t get in off 135?
He needs 12 to pull out, but yes that’s the biggest issue but I’ve lost nothing with NRNB. Of those guaranteed a run I’m looking at Hammersly Lake. Runs of 140 and ran Top Notch to within 2 lengths earlier in the season. 6th in the 2015 Coral Cup off a hurdles mark of 144.
Foxtail Hill is proving very popular but I’m not sure his recent Cheltenham win can be taken 100% literally. I know it looks solid with Saphir Du Rheu and Tenor Nivernais next home, but SDR was entitled to win as he did next time and the form of TN’s Ascot win is so fruity that you’d be crazy to take it literally.
There aren’t too many obvious blots in this race though. The Irish horses have been hammered by Phil Smith. Mixboy could be anything but you can only use guesswork to judge his ability and he has the handicap of a ringrusty Brian Harding already jocked-up. Final Nudge would want deeper ground.
Gold Present doesn’t look totally genuine and I wonder if Potters Legend will have the pace for this trip with Foxy zipping along in front.
Harry Skelton is already jocked-up on Value At Risk in favour of Itsafreebee (runs elsewhere?). Both are potentially well-handicapped, although you’d be very brave to trust VAR’s hairy jumping at this track in a big field. I’m not sure if the obvious one Romain De Senam is going to get in with only a couple of definite nonners above him and this race typically having so few dropouts. I’ll probably have a small saver.
My main bet is Bun Doran @ 20/1 e/w. Tom George is having an excellent year with his new assistant trainer and new stable jockey installed. Young, more lightly-raced and less exposed than most, Bun Doran emerged with great credit from the Pobbles Bay/Poker School/Brandon Hill/Gino Trail/Hainan Uttoxeter race that has been such an endless source of winners all season. He went on to win easily at Newcastle before a slightly suspicious PU in the Waiting Patiently/Politologue race that looks like the best 2m 4f novices’ event run in the UK so far this season. He’s conveniently back in the weight banding for this race and I struggle to see him being out of the frame.
Potters Legend likely heading for the Kim Muir
Where did you read that mate?
Potters Legend likely heading for the Kim Muir
Where did you read that mate?
Heard it straight from the horses mouth. Lucy Wadham’s that is, not Potters Legend
Does anyone know if All Hell Let Loose definitely lines up in this? He kept some high profile company over hurdles, not least when second to Nichols Canyon when that fella was mopping up grade 1’s. Went chasing in heavy ground which would appear he doesn’t like, and now switched to De Bromhead who, in my opinion, improves a horse over a fence. Looks like a good outside bet for this, over a trip he would prefer and ground surely to suit. I got 33’s but the exchanges don’t seem as if it definitely runs….
Potters Legend likely heading for the Kim Muir
Where did you read that mate?
Heard it straight from the horses mouth. Lucy Wadham’s that is, not Potters Legend
That is really disappointing, fancied him for this
Just added Burton’s Well @ 20/1 e/w to Bun Doran. Taken from the Plate thread..
He’s lightly-raced and unexposed, but has two particularly interesting pieces of form. He did well to hold second when bidding to make all against a 123-rated Waiting Patiently at Sedgefield and Pistol Park has done plenty for his Uttoxeter win too. He had a sighter over the fences in January and has a pedigree that gives me hope that he’s not just a soft ground grinder. He’s a half-brother to good ground lover Burton Port.
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