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Possibly the best chance of Scotland making a mark this week. Keith Dalgleish has MIXBOY entered and this could be anything. He’s not been pressed in running up a three-timer, ‘egg and spoon races’ at Cartmel and Musselburgh but beat a couple of fair sorts at Sedgefield with no fuss. Dalgleish knows how to train ’em flat or jumps and wouldn’t be wasting the trip if he didn’t think he had a shout,
CAPTAIN REDBEARD represents Stuart Coltherd and has improved steadily since impressing me in defeat at Kelso earlier on this season. He’s up 8lbs for an on the nod victory over Aqua Dude at Haydock, but the pair were well clear of Casse Tete and gameness is not in doubt after that.
The other northern trained runner is Malcolm Jefferson’s Double W’s whose second at Doncaster last time in open company reads very well.
I’m more than happy that there’s 25/1 available about MIXBOY, my preferred of the three, and 20/1 each of the other two at this time. Mixboy would be a single figure price if he had Henderson or Nicholls next to his name.
Rob
I know I’ve slated the concept of this race in another thread, but worth pointing out there are three horses who catch eye in this one.
Mixboy’s on the shortlist, for reasons explained upthread. Doesn’t need to be brilliant, but hasn’t actually lost over fences, and a nice price.
Templehills is the sort of horse who, if he completes, he wins. Big question over whether he does though, he’s prone to being a non-finisher. It’s factored into the price, though.
Bun Doran also looks like the sort of horse that does well in this sort of race. As mentioned upthread, he was pulled up in slightly, erm, interesting circs in a bloody decent sort of race, and should be capable of more. Again, decentish sort of price.
Dunno which out of the three I’ll back, but I think they’re all worth considering.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
A sea of blue for Two Taffs on oddschecker. Pricewise has no doubt tipped it, giving bookmakers an excuse to immediately knock 6 points off the price. Kind of defeats the purpose of a value tipster when his recommended odds get butchered 12 hours before anyone gets a chance to read his thoughts.
Tomorrow’s electronic edition of the Racing Post is already available, so that’s not quite true. Anyway, you’d be showing an ugly loss if backing Pricewise selections even at advised prices so far this season.
Happy that Double W’s had made it, and one of those races where NRNB has been vital.
Still like Foxtail Hill, and Its’afreebee as well, but Captain Redbeard might be the backup bet here for me, and All Hell Let Loose, is another horse giving me a headache
This is by far the trickiest race of the first day, many fancied horses have not got in – partly due to a slew of Irish runners who haven’t run since late summer. None of these seem well in and the Irish have a poor record in the race.
Exactly half the field prefer to lead: Zamdy Man, Mixboy, Foxtail Hill, Templehills, Bun Doran, Its’afreebee (keen), Powersbomb, Gold Present, All Hell Let Loose & Burtons Well so they are likely to leave scalded cats trailing in their wake and all hell could indeed be let loose.
Foxtail Hill‘s front running form looks the most solid, he should be quick enough to lead and though there is a risk he could be hassled into going injudiciously fast should stay on well on less sapping ground than last time. Not sure a lot of the other would be leaders will and the race could set up for a hold up merchant but is anything going to quite get there? Maybe Captain Redbeard who is an E/W price.
I have followed Mix Boy this season and was on last time when he dismantled his field.
That wasn’t a great race but he gave more than a stone and a complete tanking to the runner up. He’s been off for ten weeks but at 25/1 I had to have a small bet. Hopefully he can burn them off from the front. He seems a good jumper and the odds were too tempting.
I did look at Foxtail Hill at 14/1 in the first betting available but decided to wait. He’s a bit short with the stable not in top nick.
Mix Boy 25/1 was my idea of some fun.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Done Zamdy Man E/W. Not really a handicap this so not worried about top weight. Only a small bet in any case.
William Twistor-Davies riding the favourite in any Festival race surely must be something out of the Monty Python drawer….
William Twistor-Davies riding the favourite in any Festival race surely must be something out of the Monty Python drawer….
LOL
Done Zamdy Man E/W. Not really a handicap this so not worried about top weight. Only a small bet in any case.
I had £2 on Mix Boy. He took it up at one stage but clouted one really hard and dropped away quickly. I got a better run than Foxtail Hill backers did mind you. It was a war of attrition with a few casualties.
I was surprised how low the odds were on the winner. I wouldn’t have backed him after two heavy defeats the last twice but some people seem to know when these horses have their correct handicap mark to run well in the big pot races.
A day for Gordon Elliott and the bookies. Willie who?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Had a nice bet on Tully East (also double with CDT in Neptune), this horse was 4th last year in Martin Pipe’s, won easily beginners chase, then was thrown into graded company to protect his mark. Fleming is like Pipe, both gets winners at Cheltenham every year. It was masterpiece was Pipe did with Un Temps Pour Tout this season. Willie will have good days as well ( Champion Chase and Gold Cup these both races he would love to win).
Done Zamdy Man E/W. Not really a handicap this so not worried about top weight. Only a small bet in any case.
I had £2 on Mix Boy. He took it up at one stage but clouted one really hard and dropped away quickly. I got a better run than Foxtail Hill backers did mind you. It was a war of attrition with a few casualties.
I was surprised how low the odds were on the winner. I wouldn’t have backed him after two heavy defeats the last twice but some people seem to know when these horses have their correct handicap mark to run well in the big pot races.
A day for Gordon Elliott and the bookies. Willie who?
I thought mine went wide but was well beaten in the end. I was just thinking about Baby Shine and William was gone, haven’t seen it again, gonna watch it on itv hub now.
You’re right about the handicap horses, hope Tombstone and Long Call are in a good place tomorrow. Will do a little each way on those.
This should be red hot form, with the protagonists likely to play a big part in next year’s Paddy Power and Caspian Caviar.
Tully East seems to thrive in these big handicap scenarios and has the classic ‘only does enough’ handicapper’s profile. Granted, the ungenuine Gold Present and questionable Two Taffs were hardly staunch foes, but the winner should progress.
Bun Doran was a huge eyecatcher, still holding every chance at the last despite pulling much too hard throughout. He’ll be a good candidate for a hood and could follow a similar path of fulfillment to the same owner’s Double Shuffle next year.
Double W’s also caught the eye, although he lacks the same sort of scope for progression. He’s just a non-stayer at this trip but should find more races at 2m, especially in the marshmallow pits up north.
Burtons Well came down too far out to know what would have happened, but he had travelled well enough and was heavily punted all day. He’s worth another chance, especially on decent ground.
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