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I backed Caravaggio ante-post for the Morny, believing he could go something like fast enough to keep tabs on Lady Aurelia and then overhaul her in the final furlong but he never showed up. Looking at the way the Morny panned out late on I feel he may well have beaten her, given that lesser horses than him closed her down.
I actually happened to be watching when Lady Aurelia made her US debut and was taken by her early dash, her low action and her cadence. To me she looked a filly who would take the dickens of catching in the Queen Mary.
It took time to get odds quoted for Lady Aurelia but I managed to get 5/1 for Ascot and never had a concern, even having had reservations about the ground going against her. For me though, it looks like the obvious explanation for her less impressive display in the Morny was the 6th furlong.
Lady Aurelia was only about a length clear of Al Johrah in the Morny, yet she stuffed that filly 7 lengths at Royal Ascot. Al Johraj went on to be beaten at odds-on in Group 3 company next time and Tis Marvellous ran like a scabby donkey in the Flying Childers, so hardly an endorsement of the Morny form.
I want to take her on at these odds but there is no value for me in Queen Kindly at her price and it is hard to fathom why Roly Poly is double her odds on better weight terms. For me, Roly Poly looks the value at 6/1. She is a course and distance winner, albeit that I don’t think that was a great Cherry Hinton she won. For me her Lowther run was the better effort and she may well beat Queen Kindly this time.
The Caution Quid is on Roly Poly to “Jam” it up Lady Aurelia
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I recall years ago Lyric Fantasy looking almost unbeatable over five furlongs and then being completely put in her place by Sayyedati in the Cheveley park. There are some comparisons with the situation here for sure although Roly Poly and Queen Kindly aren’t a Sayyedati.
Had to laugh at the Oddschecker verdict for this race. Apparently, Lady Aurelia isn’t progressing; quite how anybody can draw that conclusion after ONE subsequent run (and that in a race for which Dettori said the ground was “horrible”) I’m not sure. And a flat six furlongs is going to be the limit of her stamina, they say…. seemingly oblivious to the fact that she was powering away from her field- not coming back to them- at the end of the Queen Mary over Ascot’s stiff five.
The American filly may lose tomorrow (I can’t see it myself, but there’s no such thing as a certainty) but Oddschecker’s reasons for taking her on are specious at best. One wonders how such flawed writers land these gigs.
Had to laugh at the Oddschecker verdict for this race. Apparently, Lady Aurelia isn’t progressing; quite how anybody can draw that conclusion after ONE subsequent run (and that in a race for which Dettori said the ground was “horrible”) I’m not sure. And a flat six furlongs is going to be the limit of her stamina, they say…. seemingly oblivious to the fact that she was powering away from her field- not coming back to them- at the end of the Queen Mary over Ascot’s stiff five.
The American filly may lose tomorrow (I can’t see it myself, but there’s no such thing as a certainty) but Oddschecker’s reasons for taking her on are specious at best. One wonders how such flawed writers land these gigs.
Struggling to see what oddschecker have done wrong? There is a clear difference between a stiff five and a stiff six. I should think that everyone who opposes her will be making the case that she might be better at five than six. You can’t just ignore the Morny run.
Dettori’s comments about the ground were well reported. He would say that though, wouldn’t he? I think it was similar ground for the other four runners. At least he can’t use the ground excuse tomorrow.
Struggling to see what oddschecker have done wrong?
Leaving aside the five/six furlong debate, how could anybody draw the conclusion that a horse isn’t progressing using just one race as evidence?
We all know that horses can underperform- even Frankel nearly got beaten in the St James’s Palace Stakes. Maybe he had hit his peak in the Guineas…
Lady Aurelia’s effectiveness at 6f is a worthy point, although I believe she does stay 6f. Morny disappointing win/distance due more to the pace rather than trip. If she’s allowed to set an even or slow pace can’t see a prolem. If taken on and forced to go too quick early-on, then she may not last home… But neither will the filly that takes her on, so it’s unlikely anything will.
I would also say she’s unlikely to progress further, not because of what happened in France but how unbelievabley top class the Ascot performance was… And imo the probable use of growth hormone Clenbuterol, which brings a horse to peak career performance a lot sooner. ie Maybe Oddschecker are skirting around the reasons for their conclusions.Value Is EverythingChannel four sucking up to ward right now on the morning line, sickening. Why don’t they actually ask probing questions like “what are you really giving your horses?”
Seems to be no money at all for Roly Poly. It doesn’t look right when you can’t lay a 4/1 shot at 6’s. There have been a few successful late Coolmore gambles this season but unless the money does arrive I have a nasty feeling she might well bomb. Perhaps all hasn’t been plain sailing since York and this amounts to a little bit of a dart throw?
Given their number of horses bit surprised Coolmore didn’t throw something in just to give the favourite a hard time for a couple of furlongs.
Brave Anna bounced back. Clearly the stiff six furlongs was what she wanted as similar conditions to Ascot.
Not sure you’d fancy her for the guineas though as she’s disappointed each time she’s been asked to go beyond six.
The jockey said something revealing there in the post race interview- he said you could rely on Aiden to prime them for the group ones
Is he suggesting that they don’t wound them up for lesser races? In which case we can understand why she’s been stuffed her last two starts? (Although the moyglare was also a group one)
Just to confirm television set is still in one piece.
The game is impossible at times, you get everything within reason spot on and still can’t win.
Commiserations to everyone who backed the second.
I thought Roly Poly had won it for me but Brave Anna nodded her way into the lead right on the line. To make it worse, I earlier backed Brave Anna against Rhododendron in the Debutante Stakes and she ran like a donkey, with the reason put forward that she wasn’t fully race ready that day.
Just to add insult to injury I sat with 5/1 on Blue Point, only to see a horse he had thrashed out of sight last time, keep on and win at 25/1.
The form book has been about as much use as a Candy Floss dildo today
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
5 furlong horse at the top level.
uncontested lead today, The horse is too fast for her own good at 6 furlongs.
Hard luck for those on Roly Poly.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The jockey said something revealing there in the post race interview- he said you could rely on Aiden to prime them for the group ones
Is he suggesting that they don’t wound them up for lesser races? In which case we can understand why she’s been stuffed her last two starts? (Although the moyglare was also a group one)
Yeats, St Nicholas Abbey, Fame and Glory all got turned over at very short odds in pre group 1 races.
O’Brien has always said he likes his horses to find their own feet as the season goes on, whatever that means.?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Good quote from the trainer “I’m not sure what happened in the Moyglare – maybe it was the seven furlongs, or maybe she just got a bit tired, but we always had faith in her.”
First time out over 5F Beaten out of sight
Next 2 times over 6F won
Next 2 times over 7F Beaten out of sight
Next time G1 over 6F BoomAt least we know what her trip is
Just to confirm television set is still in one piece.
The game is impossible at times, you get everything within reason spot on and still can’t win.
Commiserations to everyone who backed the second.
Indeed. RP ran a fantastic race and when sandwiched between the winner and the 3rd about half a furling out, surged noticeably and impressively forward only to ‘relax’ again as she got past the third. Suspect she’s the better filly and could have a really nice race in her
I’m amazed LA finished so close given that she effectively ran away with Frankie. He was extremely artful in sitting still and making it look like he was in control, but 99% of sprinters couldn’t do those fractions under strong driving, never mind when supposedly bowling along. On a flat course she might just have got home.
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