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In a Richard Hughes column a while back I recall him mentioning that the ridges on the Rowley Mile had got steadily worse over the years. I got the impression it’s a difficult track for a horse to keep a smooth action and I wonder if this might inhibit the favourite.
Queen Kindly made a big impression last time with her speed, her gear change and especially her battling qualities. Her sire had no problems at Newmarket
and I’ll take her to see them all off.A warm welcome to you HB.
Queen Kindly made a big impression last time with her speed, her gear change and especially her battling qualities. Her sire had no problems at Newmarket
and I’ll take her to see them all off.Unfortunately, Queen Kindly, if I remember correctly – and I should do as I backed her – came to win the Albany but didn’t see it out. We are a few months on but it could still be that a fast six at York is more her bag. I would definitely have the stiffer track as being more in favour of Roly Poly. Add in the Frankel factor and the trainer hype and I think Queen Kindly is a little too short.
Thank you for your welcome, Steeplechasing and also for your contribution to this flat race
.Queen Kindly may be quite short, and I have a question to you, Stilvi:
Can one really deduce the performance from the price?I would wish Queen Kindly the victory, but to be honest I’ve accumulated some losses from German bets this year and I am here to reduce them, so maybe I’d rather wait for likelier winners.
E.g. in the Quipco Sprint Stakes it will be another chance to reflect quietly for me .
But that is a different story..Thank you for your welcome, Steeplechasing and also for your contribution to this flat race
.Queen Kindly may be quite short, and I have a question to you, Stilvi:
Can one really deduce the performance from the price?I would wish Queen Kindly the victory, but to be honest I’ve accumulated some losses from German bets this year and I am here to reduce them, so maybe I’d rather wait for likelier winners.
E.g. in the Quipco Sprint Stakes it will be another chance to reflect quietly for me .
But that is a different story..Making money at gambling is all about value HB. By that I don’t mean back anything at 10/1 and above. Every price, odds on or outsiders can be “value”. Add the two figures up in the price then divide the second figure by the resultant figure, eg 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 1 ‘/, 4 = 0.25, so you need to win 25% of your 3/1 bets to break even. Therefore, if you believe a 3/1 shot has a better than 25% chance – back it! If you think it has less than 25% chance – don’t! Back a 4/5 shot if you think it has a better than 55.5% chance. Back a 6/1 shot if believing it a better than 14.3% and a 12/1 chance if better than 7.7% and so on.
If you’re just waiting for “likelier winners”, that likelier winner may or may not be a good bet (value).
It is possible to come to a conclusion about every horse’s chance from studying form.
Value Is EverythingThank you Ginger for this kind and useful explanation.
I still have to learn about these probability calculations, as so far I had bet more from my “guts”,
and often this was surely misleading.
Can I give you an example to check if I understood it right:
Postponed stands 11/4 in the Arc, so 4:15 makes a chance of 26%.
As I rate his winning chances much higher than 26% I should back him according to your method, right?Correct HB, to be exact 11/4 = 26.7%.
So yes, if you believe Postponed has a much higher than 26.7% chance you should be backing him.
Value Is EverythingQueen Kindly may be quite short, and I have a question to you, Stilvi:
Can one really deduce the performance from the price?Welcome.
Not sure if I am answering your question, correct me if it is something else. Prior to each race you have a number of factors (form, track, going, trainer, jockey etc.) on which to make your selection. You add in a little intuition which is specific to you and decide whether you want to back a horse at a certain price. That is your opinion, others might take an opposite opinion. In this case I think Queen Kindly is too short in the market relative to Roly Poly. My reasoning is that Roly Poly was conceding weight at York and I think the stiffer test of stamina will suit her more than Queen Kindly. Of course that isn’t to say Queen Kindly cannot win.
I am like Jac and I can’t wait to see this beast in the flesh!!
As most of you on here know I don’t back the skinny ones and will be looking for something to back each way in the race.
That is if there are eight runners or more. If not I might just back Queen Kindly in the hope that she can use her turn of foot.
Do you think she would be a “beast”, if she wasn’t pumped full of drugs from an early age?
Do you think she would be a “beast”, if she wasn’t pumped full of drugs from an early age?
Before
After
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
You are spot on there Nathan H!
But it I believe it most be devaluating, the drugs advantage.
If we are to believe a little of what Ward says when he claims the horses going on European campaign are of the “additives”, he admidts training on Clenbuterol: “Speaking from Saratoga, where he has recently trained three winners, Ward said: “I train every horse on clenbuterol and the majority of trainers, all the top trainers, train all their horses on it. It is not an illegal drug and it is wonderful for keeping horses’ airways clean.”
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/WARD+AND+THE+ISSUE+OF+DRUGS%3B+David+Ashforth+on+the+medication…-a0205955466
-if link not active just mark the line, right click and choose go to. Hope this works if interested.Lady Aurelia looked like shortening her stride significantly in last 1/4 furlong in the Morny and I believe she will need to be well ahead to win this, can’t conserve energy on that Lady Aurelia. IMO.
Best Wishes
SilkYour link doesn’t come out KS so I’ll try:
Well, I tried. Doesn’t work for me either.
If TRFers want to see it just put “Wesley Ward David Ashforth Clenbuterol” in to your search engine.
Value Is EverythingWard said: “I train every horse on clenbuterol and the majority of trainers, all the top trainers, train all their horses on it. It is not an illegal drug and it is wonderful for keeping horses’ airways clean.”
As far as I am aware, British trainers can not use Clenuterol during training… And it not only keeps “horses airways clear”, it can also be used as a growth hormone.
imo It’s like Al Zarrooni setting up in another country that allows the stuff he was banned for, and then us encouraging him to race his horses over here.
Value Is EverythingWard said: “I train every horse on clenbuterol and the majority of trainers, all the top trainers, train all their horses on it. It is not an illegal drug and it is wonderful for keeping horses’ airways clean.”
As far as I am aware, British trainers can not use Clenuterol during training… And it not only keeps “horses airways clear”, it can also be used as a growth hormone.
imo It’s like Al Zarrooni setting up in another country that allows the stuff he was banned for, and then us encouraging him to race his horses over here.
It can indeed be used for muscle growth and when used on a regulatory basis (every horse) it is not used as intended and muscle will grow, excersize or not.
In some countries it is used to grow muscle on lamb and calfs who are boxed with no excersize before slaughter.Best Wishes
SilkThe above link should work, the numbers were not clickable in the original link.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
On drugs, it’s a simple fix for the BHA if they care to face up to it: allow no runners from any racing territory where (name your drug) is freely used.
and I’ll take her to see them all off.
and I’ll take her to see them all off.
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