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Cheveley Park 2016

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 52 total)
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  • #1264208
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4525

    Don’t you think the less impressive Morny was purely due to being taken on for the lead and going a suicidal pace, Stilvi? Surprised me she could win given the pace.

    Maybe, but I would be more inclined to think that Lady Aurelia put up a performance at Royal Ascot that she just isn’t going to reproduce, particularly over further. She was taken on in the early stages of the Queen Mary but just shot clear. It may not actually mean too much but it is worth mentioning that the Morny fourth and fifth have run shockers next time out.

    I would like to back Roly Poly now but I am just wondering if the relatively generous price in some way factors in a doubt about her turning up. She shouldn’t really be any bigger than 4/1.

    #1264212
    raymo61raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4753

    I am like Jac and I can’t wait to see this beast in the flesh!!

    As most of you on here know I don’t back the skinny ones and will be looking for something to back each way in the race.

    That is if there are eight runners or more. If not I might just back Queen Kindly in the hope that she can use her turn of foot.

    #1264221
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5770

    In a Richard Hughes column a while back I recall him mentioning that the ridges on the Rowley Mile had got steadily worse over the years. I got the impression it’s a difficult track for a horse to keep a smooth action and I wonder if this might inhibit the favourite.

    Queen Kindly made a big impression last time with her speed, her gear change and especially her battling qualities. Her sire had no problems at Newmarket ;-) and I’ll take her to see them all off.

    A warm welcome to you HB.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1264223
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4525

    Queen Kindly made a big impression last time with her speed, her gear change and especially her battling qualities. Her sire had no problems at Newmarket ;-) and I’ll take her to see them all off.

    Unfortunately, Queen Kindly, if I remember correctly – and I should do as I backed her – came to win the Albany but didn’t see it out. We are a few months on but it could still be that a fast six at York is more her bag. I would definitely have the stiffer track as being more in favour of Roly Poly. Add in the Frankel factor and the trainer hype and I think Queen Kindly is a little too short.

    #1264233
    hein bollowhein bollow
    Participant
    • Total Posts 789

    Thank you for your welcome, Steeplechasing and also for your contribution to this flat race ;-) .

    Queen Kindly may be quite short, and I have a question to you, Stilvi:
    Can one really deduce the performance from the price?

    I would wish Queen Kindly the victory, but to be honest I’ve accumulated some losses from German bets this year and I am here to reduce them, so maybe I’d rather wait for likelier winners.
    E.g. in the Quipco Sprint Stakes it will be another chance to reflect quietly for me :yes: .
    But that is a different story..

    #1264255
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Thank you for your welcome, Steeplechasing and also for your contribution to this flat race ;-) .

    Queen Kindly may be quite short, and I have a question to you, Stilvi:
    Can one really deduce the performance from the price?

    I would wish Queen Kindly the victory, but to be honest I’ve accumulated some losses from German bets this year and I am here to reduce them, so maybe I’d rather wait for likelier winners.
    E.g. in the Quipco Sprint Stakes it will be another chance to reflect quietly for me :yes: .
    But that is a different story..

    Making money at gambling is all about value HB. By that I don’t mean back anything at 10/1 and above. Every price, odds on or outsiders can be “value”. Add the two figures up in the price then divide the second figure by the resultant figure, eg 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 1 ‘/, 4 = 0.25, so you need to win 25% of your 3/1 bets to break even. Therefore, if you believe a 3/1 shot has a better than 25% chance – back it! If you think it has less than 25% chance – don’t! Back a 4/5 shot if you think it has a better than 55.5% chance. Back a 6/1 shot if believing it a better than 14.3% and a 12/1 chance if better than 7.7% and so on.

    If you’re just waiting for “likelier winners”, that likelier winner may or may not be a good bet (value).

    It is possible to come to a conclusion about every horse’s chance from studying form.

    value is everything
    #1264262
    hein bollowhein bollow
    Participant
    • Total Posts 789

    Thank you Ginger for this kind and useful explanation.
    I still have to learn about these probability calculations, as so far I had bet more from my “guts”,
    and often this was surely misleading.
    Can I give you an example to check if I understood it right:
    Postponed stands 11/4 in the Arc, so 4:15 makes a chance of 26%.
    As I rate his winning chances much higher than 26% I should back him according to your method, right?

    #1264266
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Correct HB, to be exact 11/4 = 26.7%.
    So yes, if you believe Postponed has a much higher than 26.7% chance you should be backing him. :good:

    value is everything
    #1264275
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4525

    Queen Kindly may be quite short, and I have a question to you, Stilvi:
    Can one really deduce the performance from the price?

    Welcome.

    Not sure if I am answering your question, correct me if it is something else. Prior to each race you have a number of factors (form, track, going, trainer, jockey etc.) on which to make your selection. You add in a little intuition which is specific to you and decide whether you want to back a horse at a certain price. That is your opinion, others might take an opposite opinion. In this case I think Queen Kindly is too short in the market relative to Roly Poly. My reasoning is that Roly Poly was conceding weight at York and I think the stiffer test of stamina will suit her more than Queen Kindly. Of course that isn’t to say Queen Kindly cannot win.

    #1264276
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    I am like Jac and I can’t wait to see this beast in the flesh!!

    As most of you on here know I don’t back the skinny ones and will be looking for something to back each way in the race.

    That is if there are eight runners or more. If not I might just back Queen Kindly in the hope that she can use her turn of foot.

    Do you think she would be a “beast”, if she wasn’t pumped full of drugs from an early age?

    #1264277
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21536

    Do you think she would be a “beast”, if she wasn’t pumped full of drugs from an early age?

    Before

    After

    Member since March 2008
    #1264281
    Kentucky SpringKentucky Spring
    Participant
    • Total Posts 375

    You are spot on there Nathan H!
    But it I believe it most be devaluating, the drugs advantage.
    If we are to believe a little of what Ward says when he claims the horses going on European campaign are of the “additives”, he admidts training on Clenbuterol: “Speaking from Saratoga, where he has recently trained three winners, Ward said: “I train every horse on clenbuterol and the majority of trainers, all the top trainers, train all their horses on it. It is not an illegal drug and it is wonderful for keeping horses’ airways clean.”
    http://www.thefreelibrary.com/WARD+AND+THE+ISSUE+OF+DRUGS%3B+David+Ashforth+on+the+medication…-a0205955466
    -if link not active just mark the line, right click and choose go to. Hope this works if interested.

    Lady Aurelia looked like shortening her stride significantly in last 1/4 furlong in the Morny and I believe she will need to be well ahead to win this, can’t conserve energy on that Lady Aurelia. IMO.

    Best Wishes
    Silk

    #1264284
    hein bollowhein bollow
    Participant
    • Total Posts 789

    Thank you, Stilvi.
    You wrote this very well and answered my question very precisely.

    #1264294
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Your link doesn’t come out KS so I’ll try:

    Well, I tried. Doesn’t work for me either.

    If TRFers want to see it just put “Wesley Ward David Ashforth Clenbuterol” in to your search engine.

    value is everything
    #1264296
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Ward said: “I train every horse on clenbuterol and the majority of trainers, all the top trainers, train all their horses on it. It is not an illegal drug and it is wonderful for keeping horses’ airways clean.”

    As far as I am aware, British trainers can not use Clenuterol during training… And it not only keeps “horses airways clear”, it can also be used as a growth hormone.

    imo It’s like Al Zarrooni setting up in another country that allows the stuff he was banned for, and then us encouraging him to race his horses over here.

    value is everything
Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 52 total)
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