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“Probably too firm for Galopin. But also it was strange Paul held him up.”
Wasn’t able to run handily early on it wasn’t deliberate to be a bit further back. 3 out he was looking like the champ he has been but Mark Walsh followed the moves.
Galopin has run similar today than he did at the DRF imo. I thought he looked very beatable that day which is why I was willing to take him on today.
The difference is Cromwells horse was held back in the Hennessy for obvious reasons and has come on a tonne since.
RIP Corbett’s Cross 💔
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Remembering what happened to One Man (Mumm Melling) Alverton and Synchronised (GN) I wouldn’t really like to see any of these run at the Punchestown or GN meeting.
Great win from Inothewayourthinkin and GDC was magnificent in defeat 👏.
What an extraordinary meeting this has been and feel like I’ve witnessed some stars of the future taking their first steps to greatness.
My heart is still with the flat but these NH horses will be racing on while this years Group winners on the flat are tucked away in the breeding sheds…that’s racing and it’s been an amazing week.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Cromwell or JP weren’t bothered about those races , it was all about today , JP punts seem to have gone quiet in recent years but I bet he had a nice pick up off that today
“But also it was strange Paul held him up.
For sure Galopin was held up to win his first Gold Cup, but he’d been ridden prominently on all his last 7 starts. ie It’s not what the horse has got used to and didn’t race with the same fluency today.”I know you meant “racing near the back” but he wasn’t “holding him up” as such – watching Ruby Walsh’s analysis he said there was a loop in the reins early. He would’ve had to kick him out of his stride to take the lead and would have been beaten further IMO, or worse if kicked into fences and losing rhythm. Townend accepted that the horse wasn’t travelling brilliantly to start, rode him conservatively till he warmed up, got him jumping well then pressed go at the right time. I don’t think he could have got any closer, it was a good ride IMO.
The best horse won with the best ride , Walsh didn’t take any prisoners and he timed his attack to perfection
“The best horse won with the best ride , Walsh didn’t take any prisoners and he timed his attack to perfection”
Agree it was a great ride, watching the overhead replay you can see why. Horse looked superb today and bouncing afterwards, turned out to perfection.
The ground was probably too fast for GDC but he was beaten by a better horse on the day.
I would be surprised if the winner goes for the National. He is still young and a second Gold Cup looks well within his capabilities.
“I know you meant “racing near the back” but he wasn’t “holding him up” as such – watching Ruby Walsh’s analysis he said there was a loop in the reins early. He would’ve had to kick him out of his stride to take the lead and would have been beaten further IMO, or worse if kicked into fences and losing rhythm. Townend accepted that the horse wasn’t travelling brilliantly to start, rode him conservatively till he warmed up, got him jumping well then pressed go at the right time. I don’t think he could have got any closer, it was a good ride IMO”.
————————————–If you look at the start of the race, Green’. No need to “kick him out of his stride” then, Townend had ample opportunity to just nudge him slightly and he’d have been prominent. Just as any jockey does at the start of a race when riding a front / prominent runner. It’s not as if there were lots of jockeys wanting to race prominently. They didn’t go that fast early. But no, he didn’t do anything and by the time they all landed over the first fence he was in 6th place with horses all around him. Not what you want with one who’s used to racing prominently. (6th of 9 imo counts as “held up”. If it were 8th of 9 that’s in my book “dropped out”).
Once he was further back in the field he did not travel or jump with his usual fluency. Had he just nudged the horse slightly on the run to the first fence he may well have raced more fluently throughout, racing in a prominent position. GDC noticeably began moving a lot more fluently once moving alongside the leader. But by then the damage had been done.
Value Is Everything“Record of horses older than 9 in the three open grade 1 chases…
Rynair Chase – 0/15
Gold Cup – 0/15
Champion Chase – 2/15 (10 yr olds)”Now make that…
Rynair Chase – 0/16
Gold Cup – 0/16
Champion Chase – 2/16 (10 yr olds)As mentioned to the Protektorat supporters in the Ryanair thread, it ain’t easy for the ‘older legs’ so best to have a ‘younger model’ onside as well.
imo Punters need to take age into account when betting, not just dismiss a horse purely on age…
And as I pointed out with your stats that day, Mike…“A greater percentage of 10 year old runners won both the Champion Chase and Ryanair than the percentage of 8 year old runners.
In the Champion Chase:
2 of the 16 ten year old runners won the race, a 12.5% strike rate.
3 of the 36 eight year old runners won the race, an 8.3% strike rate.In the Ryanair:
1 of the 17 ten year old runners won, a 5.9% strike rate. Not the 0% you claimed (Alberta’s Run).
3 of the 57 eight year old runners won, a 5.3% strike rate.It is also interesting that if going back another 5 years (20 in total) to the actual beginning of the Ryanair:
Of the 20 years:
3 of the 27 ten year old runners won, an 11.1% strike rate.
compared to exactly the same:
6 of the 54 nine year old runners won, an 11.1% strike rate.
whereas only 4 of the 65 eight year old runners won, a 6.2% strike rate.When using statistics, proper TRENDS experts will tell you the number of runners in each group needs to be taken into account, ie PERCENTAGES. Otherwise the statistics of how many winners each age group has is meaningless”.
You’ve deliberately gone back 15 years, so as not to take in the 16th year’s Alberta’s Run. A 10 year old who was – like Protektorat – defending his crown.
…And you’ve deliberately grouped all under 10’s together.
…And once again you do not take into account 8 and 9 year olds massively outnumbering 10 year olds.
Indeed, as my statistics prove – A GREATER PERCENTAGE of the 10 year old runners have won both the Ryanair and the Champion Chase than the percentage of 8 year old runners.
But did you dismiss all 8 year olds in the Ryanair and Champion Chase, Mike?
Hope not.
If so you would not have backed either Fact To File or Marine Nationale.
Value Is Everything“If you look at the start of the race, Green’. No need to “kick him out of his stride” then, Townend had ample opportunity to just nudge him slightly and he’d have been prominent. ”
Yes, he would have been upsides the front running Ahoy Senor, just to his right. How d’you think that would have gone?
He races wide with a good sight of his fences, completely uncrowded, most of the way round and does not look to me like a horse who is sulking because he can’t get an uncontested lead. He starts jumping better at about the fence before Ahoy Senor falls and doesn’t get a really prominent position till about the 3rd last, so I don’t believe non fluent jumping was caused by his position in the field.
Watching it back I see him adjust slightly right at several fences- I can’t remember whether he has done this before but I wonder whether he was feeling something, plus the effect of the quicker ground perhaps.
Galopin Des was well below the form of his Gold Cup victories. But not that far behind the form of this season.
Today he beat Gentlemansgame (an exposed sort whose ability is known / unlikely to be improving) by 12 lengths.
In the Savills GDC beat Gentlemansgame 12 1/2 lengths. Admittedly could have won by further had he been pushed out.Value Is Everything“Yes, he would have been upsides the front running Ahoy Senor, just to his right. How d’you think that would have gone”?
Perfectly. You can be alongside a horse with a bit of a gap, you don’t need to position too close to Ahoy Senor. Alongside is safer than being behind. GDC was taken wide as Montys had to take avoiding action.
However, once he was not jumping and travelling with his usual fluency Townend could have changed position – whatever Walsh (who is still part of team Mullins) says.
It is a good job Norman Williamson didn’t just sit there doing nothing in 1995.
(4 minutes in):Value Is EverythingWhat is a horse like Ahoy Senor doing in such races? Just leading and veering to his right at almost every single fence.
Jac
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