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I have a particular liking for the chances of Nickname in the QMC and Tipperary Allstar in the Supreme. (I even have £2 on the latter at 1000/1 on Betfair for the Champion Hurdle – which I know is a big ask, even with such a monumental raw talent. One race won’t put me off).
On the off-chance that KS doesn’t front up for the Gold Cup, or hits a fence or two too hard, Halcon Genelardais doesn’t strike me as an impossible winner. And I don’t think it’s impossible, if DC fails for some reason in the Champion Hurdle that Hardy Eustace could provide a shock.
Buena Vista and Sky’s The Limit seem plausible to me for the Arkle, at a price.
They’re ones I quite like which haven’t come in a lot. But who knows? Just opinions.
Yes, I agree on both points, but as regards the first, there is apparently some hope that there will be cut in the ground, as a matter of policy on the part of the course administration. Worth the risk at the prices available, imo.
STL has let me down too, but I’m not too phased by it, as I strongly suspect he’s being  brought along slowly.
Interesting about the step up in trip and his going preference though. I don’t remember studying the latter, but I dare say, if there’s cut it won’t be more than soft. (Famous last words)
I’m glad to hear about the step up in trip, since Cheltenham’s such a stiff track, and with Voy Por Ustedes there, he’s going to need stamina plus. (Edit: No I was thinking of My Way de Solzen in the Arkle.)
The Triumph is still interesting too, with so many unknown quantitities. The proven high-class flat-horse, Mountain; Purple Moon, Vespone’s half-brother by Galileo, recently bought for nearly half a million pounds, and said by Nicky Richards to jump well; the Irish horse, Jayo, who won impressively the other day, the high-class French hurdler, Pancake, and maybe one or two others well into double.
I’ve just done Liberate, Jayo and Purple Moon at decent prices.
And the favourites figures don’t seem slow, either! So you wouldn’t want more than a tickle or two would you?
(Edited by Grimes at 2:55 pm on Jan. 4, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 2:57 pm on Jan. 4, 2007)
don’t forget lounaos who they are thinking of running against Brave Inca in the AIG!!!
Another interesting horse – as a saver for the Sun Alliance Chase – in case Denman doesn’t run – might be Percussionist, who was second in the Derby, not beaten far.
In the write-up a chase in which he came second, the race analyst reckoned he piked out when the chips were down.
Well maybe, but it’s also unlikely it would have been his main target, and not one they’d have wanted him to go all out to win. I believe he jumped well against Harmony Brig, and would have preferred better going.
At 380/1 now on Betfair, it seems worth risking £2 on. I put £3 on at 200s long ago.
Although beaten today, Perce Rock is a good price at 25/1 with Skybet for the Ballymore Prop Nov Hdl given that he has already shown that not only can he jump a hurdle but he can also handle the hustle and bustle of the Festival, with a 4th in last years Bumper.
He is also a general 16/1 for the opener though so that may be a better indicator to his actual target.
Grimes, easnt Percussionist fourth in the derby, not second? thats just off the top of my head though.
Agree with DB about Perce Rock, under a better ride from McCoy (that wasnt his best) i think he would have beaten silverburn. Pedigree aside, Perce Rock is certain to stay at least 2 1/2miles, everything about him suggests he is a real tough horse too.
My question is would he have the gears to match Aran Concerto? If it comes down the battle Perce Rock would get the better of him i think. im not sure if you saw Perce Rock’s first bumper (before JP bought him) the ground was almost unraceable and he quickend like the race was being run on fast ground.
I honestly think this horse comes into the ‘machine’ range of my ratings!
Heard this morning that the Murphy camp might point Another Promise at the Arkle……… im not certain about the drop back to two miles on better ground, but they know more than me.
May turn out to be a free bet eventually though, not been introduced into the betfair market, though, as far as i know.
I think he would be more of a sun alliance type, which i put up on here before, but as i said, the lads know more than me.
Stromont
Just to let you know that, in light of the 11 (I think) fatalities last year, the Horse Racing Authority have recommended that the Festival going be no better than Gd/Sft in March. So if the clerk decides to water in the run up and then there’s rain we could actually have genuine soft ground for the 4 days (or at least for the 1st 2).
I know they want to soften it up there, but the drainage is so good there that even if they do water and it rains i cant see it staying soft for long. Ive been at the festival the last three years, i couldnt believe how quick they had left the ground last year, when i walked across the course for the x-country, it was on the firm side of good without a doubt.
Another Promise for me, likes to get his toe in quite a bit, on good ground i think 3miles would be the optimum for him, but my mate at Ferdy’s thinks 2miles will be fine too, ive never sat on the horse, so he knows more than i do.
Is it just me or does anyone else think the 10/1 on offer from Ladbrokes for Cork Allstar for the Champion Bumper is brilliant value?? Just backed him there i dont think the race is as hot as last year and CA was very impresive when winning on the track in November
If Another Promise runs at the festival, it’s long odds on that it will be in either the Kim Muir or the William Hill. I don’t believe for a second that he’s an intended runner in the Arkle.
Quote: from rory on 8:15 pm on Jan. 9, 2007[br]If Another Promise runs at the festival, it’s long odds on that it will be in either the Kim Muir or the William Hill. I don’t believe for a second that he’s an intended runner in the Arkle.
Well, all im going by is what my best mate and told me and as he looks after him and rides him out most mornings, no offence but i think he knows more than you, Rory.
Quote: from davidbrady on 11:17 pm on Jan. 6, 2007[br]Although beaten today, Perce Rock is a good price at 25/1 with Skybet for the Ballymore Prop Nov Hdl given that he has already shown that not only can he jump a hurdle but he can also handle the hustle and bustle of the Festival, with a 4th in last years Bumper.
He is also a general 16/1 for the opener though so that may be a better indicator to his actual target.<br>
Runs in the supreme
Quote: from ratpack on 9:41 pm on Jan. 9, 2007[br]
Quote: from davidbrady on 11:17 pm on Jan. 6, 2007[br]Although beaten today, Perce Rock is a good price at 25/1 with Skybet for the Ballymore Prop Nov Hdl given that he has already shown that not only can he jump a hurdle but he can also handle the hustle and bustle of the Festival, with a 4th in last years Bumper.
He is also a general 16/1 for the opener though so that may be a better indicator to his actual target.<br>
Runs in the supreme
Judging by the markets on betfair that isnt true. He has been on the slide slightly for the Supreme where as for the Ballymore he is being quite solid.
Is that inside info.
I would be surprised if he went for the supreme, but you probably know more than i do.
Quote: from trackside528 on 12:41 am on Jan. 10, 2007[br]I’d say they’ll be tempted to have a crack at the Supreme now, but he would most likely get run off his feet unless there is cut in the ground (entirely possible in fairness) over 2m..
I dont see why they would go for the Supreme……. before the Tolworth they said he was more of a staying type but the track and ground at Sandown should have helped him.
2miles on even good to soft ground wont be enough of a stamina test for him. He was just staying on one paced in the Tolworth.
He won his bumper over further than 2miles and in the champion bumper he stayed on for fourth, i think they would be foolish to go for the supreme (you watch him hack up in that race now!!!!!)
Quote: from Stormont on 9:37 pm on Jan. 9, 2007[br]
Quote: from rory on 8:15 pm on Jan. 9, 2007[br]If Another Promise runs at the festival, it’s long odds on that it will be in either the Kim Muir or the William Hill. I don’t believe for a second that he’s an intended runner in the Arkle.
Well, all im going by is what my best mate and told me and as he looks after him and rides him out most mornings, no offence but i think he knows more than you, Rory.<br>
No offence intended Stormont and I don’t doubt that you have a genuine connection, but I would be amazed that a horse who has the stamina to win over 3 miles plus at Hexham could realistically have a chance in an Arkle.
In retrospect, he’s a very similar type to Strong Promise (hence the name I reckon) who was a Gold Cup horse but actually went off favourite for a Champion Chase so perhaps it’s not so ridiculous that connections should consider an Arkle bid (a little bird tells me that he will have an outing in a novice chase at Ascot over the minimum as a sighter). I do stand by my assertion that he’d be better off in one of the handicaps at the festival though.
I agree with you, i think his optimum trip would be between 2 1/2 and 3miles, i think 2 will be too sharp for him, but ive been told otherwise.
Last i heard he was going to Wincanton…….. maybe next week or the week after……. but they arent sure yet because its a long way to go and Ferdy rarely has runners there.
Also have been told to expect the horse that won the long distanc race at Haydock (Leading Man, or something) to win some very nice races this season.
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