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  • #33985
    PaulB
    Member
    • Total Posts 75

    Harchibald for the Champion Hurdle @16/1 anyone else think this is great value. A friend of mine has a horse in training with Noel Meade and he tells me that Carberry will ride Harchibald over Iktitaf for sure.

    #33986
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I simply couldnt have Harchibald at cheltenham. Its just so difficult to place him in the right spot at the right time tehre. And there has been this long lay off

    Sometimes prices can seem generous on the face of it

    the choice of H over I is nothing to be excited about. Ik’ has been a bit overrated i feel and has shown less than battling qualities

    #33987
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    I have a particular liking for the chances of Nickname in the QMC and Tipperary Allstar in the Supreme. (I even have £2 on the latter at 1000/1 on Betfair for the Champion Hurdle – which I know is a big ask, even with such a monumental raw talent. One race won’t put me off).

    On the off-chance that KS doesn’t front up for the Gold Cup, or hits a fence or two too hard, Halcon Genelardais doesn’t strike me as an impossible winner. And I don’t think it’s impossible, if DC fails for some reason in the Champion Hurdle that Hardy Eustace could provide a shock.

    Buena Vista and Sky’s The Limit seem plausible to me for the Arkle, at a price.

    They’re ones I quite like which haven’t come in a lot. But who knows? Just opinions.

    #33988
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    Yes, I agree on both points, but as regards the first, there is apparently some hope that there will be cut in the ground, as a matter of policy on the part of the course administration. Worth the risk at the prices available, imo.

    STL has let me down too, but I’m not too phased by it, as I strongly suspect he’s being  brought along slowly.

    Interesting about the step up in trip and his going preference though. I don’t remember studying the latter, but I dare say, if there’s cut it won’t be more than soft. (Famous last words)

    I’m glad to hear about the step up in trip, since Cheltenham’s such a stiff track, and with Voy Por Ustedes there, he’s going to need stamina plus. (Edit: No I was thinking of My Way de Solzen in the Arkle.)

    The Triumph is still interesting too, with so many unknown quantitities. The proven high-class flat-horse, Mountain; Purple Moon, Vespone’s half-brother by Galileo, recently bought for nearly half a million pounds, and said by Nicky Richards to jump well; the Irish horse, Jayo, who won impressively the other day, the high-class French hurdler, Pancake, and maybe one or two others well into double.

    I’ve just done Liberate, Jayo and Purple Moon at decent prices.

    And the favourites figures don’t seem slow, either! So you wouldn’t want more than a tickle or two would you?

    (Edited by Grimes at 2:55 pm on Jan. 4, 2007)<br>

    (Edited by Grimes at 2:57 pm on Jan. 4, 2007)

    #33989
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    don’t forget lounaos who they are thinking of running against Brave Inca in the AIG!!!

    #33990
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    Another interesting horse – as a saver for the Sun Alliance Chase – in case Denman doesn’t run – might be Percussionist, who was second in the Derby, not beaten far.

    In the write-up a chase in which he came second, the race analyst reckoned he piked out when the chips were down.

    Well maybe, but it’s also unlikely it would have been his main target, and not one they’d have wanted him to go all out to win. I believe he jumped well against Harmony Brig, and would have preferred better going.

    At 380/1 now on Betfair, it seems worth risking £2 on. I put £3 on at 200s long ago.  

    #33991
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Although beaten today, Perce Rock is a good price at 25/1 with Skybet for the Ballymore Prop Nov Hdl given that he has already shown that not only can he jump a hurdle but he can also handle the hustle and bustle of the Festival, with a 4th in last years Bumper.

    He is also a general 16/1 for the opener though so that may be a better indicator to his actual target.

    #33992
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    Grimes, easnt Percussionist fourth in the derby, not second? thats just off the top of my head though.

    Agree with DB about Perce Rock, under a better ride from McCoy (that wasnt his best) i think he would have beaten silverburn. Pedigree aside, Perce Rock is certain to stay at least 2 1/2miles, everything about him suggests he is a real tough horse too.

    My question is would he have the gears to match Aran Concerto? If it comes down the battle Perce Rock would get the better of him i think. im not sure if you saw Perce Rock’s first bumper (before JP bought him) the ground was almost unraceable and he quickend like the race was being run on fast ground.

    I honestly think this horse comes into the ‘machine’ range of my ratings!

    #33993
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    Heard this morning that the Murphy camp might point Another Promise at the Arkle……… im not certain about the drop back to two miles on better ground, but they know more than me.

    May turn out to be a free bet eventually though, not been introduced into the betfair market, though, as far as i know.

    I think he would be more of a sun alliance type, which i put up on here before, but as i said, the lads know more than me.

    #33994
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Stromont

    Just to let you know that, in light of the 11 (I think) fatalities last year,  the Horse Racing Authority have recommended that the Festival going be no better than Gd/Sft in March. So if the clerk decides to water in the run up and then there’s rain we could actually have genuine soft ground for the 4 days (or at least for the 1st 2).

    #33995
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    I know they want to soften it up there, but the drainage is so good there that even if they do water and it rains i cant see it staying soft for long. Ive been at the festival the last three years, i couldnt believe how quick they had left the ground last year, when i walked across the course for the x-country, it was on the firm side of good without a doubt.

    Another Promise for me, likes to get his toe in quite a bit, on good ground i think 3miles would be the optimum for him, but my mate at Ferdy’s thinks 2miles will be fine too, ive never sat on the horse, so he knows more than i do.

    #33996
    PaulB
    Member
    • Total Posts 75

    Is it just me or does anyone else think the 10/1 on offer from Ladbrokes for Cork Allstar for the Champion Bumper is brilliant value?? Just backed him there i dont think the race is as hot as last year and CA was very impresive when winning on the track in November

    #33997
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    If Another Promise runs at the festival, it’s long odds on that it will be in either the Kim Muir or the William Hill. I don’t believe for a second that he’s an intended runner in the Arkle.

    #33998
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    Quote: from rory on 8:15 pm on Jan. 9, 2007[br]If Another Promise runs at the festival, it’s long odds on that it will be in either the Kim Muir or the William Hill. I don’t believe for a second that he’s an intended runner in the Arkle.

    Well, all im going by is what my best mate and told me and as he looks after him and rides him out most mornings, no offence but i think he knows more than you, Rory.

    #33999
    ratpack
    Member
    • Total Posts 96

    Quote: from davidbrady on 11:17 pm on Jan. 6, 2007[br]Although beaten today, Perce Rock is a good price at 25/1 with Skybet for the Ballymore Prop Nov Hdl given that he has already shown that not only can he jump a hurdle but he can also handle the hustle and bustle of the Festival, with a 4th in last years Bumper.

    He is also a general 16/1 for the opener though so that may be a better indicator to his actual target.<br>

    Runs in the supreme

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