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Cheltenham AntePost

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  • #577
    PaulB
    Member
    • Total Posts 75

    Hey, this time every year i get Betting Vouchers as a Christmas present and always use them to have a few antepost bets for Cheltenham. Had a few horses in mind but the value seems to be gone in the prices and thought id put it to the forum to give us a few horses they reckon are still good value. I have €300 in vouchers and every year have 6x€50 bets.So would love to hear what people think. Thanks Paul

    #33971
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Leave it as late as possible

    Well, I backed Trabolgan and Featherd ante post last year :angry:

    I see that Azertyioup is in the Queen mother betting!

    wouldnt be suprised to see My way de solzen go for Sun alliance rather than arkle and 12/1 looks fair for that.

    Fair along at 5s still… could be worse

    Hardy at 11’s seems fair as an each way maybe. I tend not to believe he will get past DC, but he looking back to his best now

    question always is though…whether any of these would be much shorter on the day

    #33972
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    The market that looks a bit out of kilter is the Queen Mother. I can’t see either Well Chief or Kauto Star lining up and they currently make up 22.25% of the market on BF at the moment (@ 7.6 & 11.0 respectively) even though the overround is 13%. Assuming they don’t line up then there is probably a bit of value with anything else you fancy. The front 2 in the betting (Newmill and Voy Por Ustedes) are both 5.4 on BF. I’d prefer VPU myself as he shaped well enough at Sandown and he wouldn’t be the first Arkle winner to make the step up 12 months later. 4/1 is a short enough ante-post price but with the additional 22% reduction he will probably shorten up to 3s if the other 2 mentioned come out.

    #33973
    PaulB
    Member
    • Total Posts 75

    Just looking at the market for the Champion Chase and i think Accordion Etoile is brilliant value at 16/1, won on the track, loves the trip and ground should suit. I know where one of the bets is going. Also would love to back Tony Martins Wounderkid for the cross country but cant find a bookie that will give us a price. This lad is being set up for this race by the shrewdest trainer around. Anyone know where i could get a price on this horse

    #33974
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Inglis Drever e/w in the World Hurdle

    #33975
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Accordion Etoile is back in full training.

    #33976
    PaulB
    Member
    • Total Posts 75

    Thanks Lads i think ill have a small bet on him 2marrow i know Paul Nolan rates him highly so worth a chance!! Where you reckon i could get a price on the Cross Country??

    #33977
    conall
    Member
    • Total Posts 59

    Cork All Star – 6/1 for the Bumper

    Done

    #33978
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    You might if you write off to one of the big firms Paul but I doubt any in shops or online would be quoting you.  Most won’t make books till the 5 day stage on the "fringe" races.

    #33979
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Dom D’Oregval has left Nick Williams for David Pipe (sold for over £200,000) – not sure if David Johnson is the buyer but it’s certainly possible. I’ve lumped on at 40-1 and 33-1 for the World Hurdle. The downside is that they may want to send him chasing so he could end up in the Sun Alliance but at that price I’m prepared to take the chance.

    #33980
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    People that expect this horse to improve a great deal for the change of stable will be sadly mistaken in my opinion. Whilst Williams might not be the best at placing his horses, he is a damn fine and underrated trainer, as his exploits with Dom D’Orgeval and Philson Run show.

    Just today I have backed Afsoun at 75’s for the Champion Hurdle and Desert Quest for the same race at 30’s. Main reason is I see them both having the racing style and getting the conditions at Kempton on Boxing Day to give Straw Bear plenty to worry about. If that’s the case I should be able to lay off for a free bet.

    #33981
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    I’m in no way suggesting Nick Williams is a poor trainer. I have two horses with the genius of South Molton and he managed to improve Dom D’Orgeval from a mark of 81 to 156 in two years after paying around £8,000 for him (I think). I just reckon that 33-1 is too big. If he wins on his debut for Pipe he could start at 12-1 or less on the day.

    #33982
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Afsoun was never right end of last season (if i recall rightly). Lot of potential there still…good call

    #33983
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    Will be interesting to see how Glenfinn Captain runs on boxing day……. i think he is the only one to challenge Fair Along in the Arkle. Put it this way, i cant see Fair Along being 5’s on the day, unless another 2 or 3 three hot 2mile novices come out of the woodwork.

    Mountain in the triumph, he really should win a novice hurdle first time, he will be much shorter after he does = free bet after laying it off.

    Not sure if there are any markets up for the Jewson Novice chase but Another Promise for that.

    #33984
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Fair enough Mounty. Wouldn’t disagree with that at all.

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