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Supreme Simonsig 1pt 14/1
Arkle Sprinter Sacre 7pts 6/1
CH Oscar Whisky 1pt 33/1Neptune Simonsig 1pt 16/1
RSA Hidden Cyclone 1pt 29/1
QM Captain Chris 2pts 12/1Ryanair Medermit 2pts 20/1
WH Mikael D’Haguenet 1pt 40/1AB Mount Benbulben 2pts 13/1
GC Time for Rupert 3pts 16/1
GC Captain Chris 1pt 33/1Festival Chase Planet of Sound 1pt 24/1
RSA Last Instalment 2pts 8/1
WH Mikael D’Haguenet 1pt 7/1 (w/o Big Bucks)
GC Magnanimity 1ptew 25/1 (w/o Long Run and Kauto Star)
23/08/2011 Peddlers Cross @8/1 Arkle Chase
24/08/2011 Zarkander @12/1 Champion Hurdle
26/09/2011 Bobs Worth @10/1 RSA Chase
03/12/2011 Finians Rainbow @8/1 Champion Chase
10/12/2011 Hazy Tom @33/1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
14/01/2012 Sivola De Sivola @14/1 Pertemps Final
31/01/2012 Grumeti @10/1 Triumph Hurdle
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Midnight Game & Charlton to beat Rochdale on Saturday 20/1 5pts
Supreme Novices – Darlan 14s/12s & Steps to Freedom 14s/12s/10s
Arkle Trophy – Al Ferof 10s / Sprinter Sacre 10s/8s
Champion Hurdle – Grandouet 25s/20s/16s/8s/7s Rock on Ruby 12s
Mares Hurdle – Quevega 6/4Neptune – Fingal Bay 5/1
RSA Chase – Bobs Worth 10s/8s Grands Crus 8s/6s/5s/4s
Champion Chase – Big Zeb 7s/6s/5s Finians Rainbow 9s/8s/7s/6s
Jewson Chase – Sir Des Champs 14s/12s/10s Solix 12s/10s
Ryanair – Medermit 16s/14s, Noble Prince 7s/8s, Kalahari King 25s/20s, Poquelin 25s.
World Hurdle – Big Bucks (in practically every bet) 6/4 to 4/7Triumph Hurdle – Grumeti 12s/10s Minsk 16s/14s/12s/10s
Albert Bartlett – Boston Bob 12s/10s/8s Sea of Thunder 16s
Gold Cup – Quito De La Roque 33s/25s/20s/16s Grands Crus 9s Denman 25s
Foxhunters – Baby Run 7sBest three backed:
Grands Crus RSA
Sprinter Sacre Arkle
Grandouet Champion HurdleBeing ‘The King of Ante-Post’ i feel somewhat enbarrassed that i cant say i took the 1000 on
Synchronised
for the Gold Cup with Betfair,i have 14/1.My other wager in the race is 34’s about
Quito de la roque
but my Darkest of dark horses is a tenner on
Magnanimity
at 210 on the machine,he reminds me a lot of War of Attrition!
Just spotted you’ve gone for the same long shot as I fancy, Magnanimity, MrsCS has had £25 EW @ 100/1, that’s a huge bet for her.
I’ll wait to see how he runs Sunday before thinking about a wager but I’m running out of options. Royal De la Thinte hasn’t run this season, Quito De La Roque misses the Hennessey.Can’t have the first two in the betting but I’m running out of options
CS. I spreadsheeted my layout for the festival. ive alarmingly overfaced Long Run. I like him and think he will win but the more i look at Magnanimity the more the 100/1 appeals as an ew alternative.
I might have to have a point ew saver.
If anything because like you say he should be similar prices to the rsa sorts. Also the gold cup regularly goes to a second season chaser. i have worries that quito might not turn up and Bostons has been poor. He is looking a nice bet for the day at the moment. 25-1 for aplace is great too!!!
I looked at his form last year and he started the season slowly so i am not too fussed about the reappearance. Would want to see more on sunday but that 100-1 could be huge come sunday night.
You’re not getting 25/1 for a place. You’re getting 12/1.[/quote
………….assuming a place is the best he achieves
Regardless, better odds were available for win and place on betfair as 2 separate bets. There you have the added advantage that you can stake more to place than win if you are so inclined.
Because your true place odds is worked out by;
Total Return/Total Amount Staked
Eg;
£1ew @100/1 returns £26 if placed 1/4 Odds.
=> 26/2 = 13 therefore equivalent to 12/1
With you.
Usually just stick to thinking as two separate bets and as CS says, 1/3rd of the place bet would be 25-1 ie if he came 1st.
I’ll keep it simple and separate for my records.
1ptwin 100/1
1pt place 25/1Updated list.
Supreme
Simonsig – 1.5pt e/w @ 14s
Cinders and Ashes – 1.5pt e/w @ 20s
Prospect Wells – 1.5pt e/w @ 14sArkle
Al Ferof – 3pt @ 7s
Champion
Rock On Ruby – 3pt e/w @ 20s
Grandouet – 2pt @ 14s—
NH Chase
Harry The Viking – 1.5pt e/w @ 9s (ADDED 11/1/12)
Neptune
Fingal Bay – 3pt e/w @ 8s
Hazy Tom – 1.5pt e/w @ 20s
Soux Les Cieux – 1pt @ 16s (ADDED 9/2/12)QMCC
Forpadydeplasterer – 0.5pt e/w @ 40s (ADDED 9/2/12)
RSA
Grand Crus – 10pt @ 5s
Coral Cup
Recession Proof – 2pt e/w @ 20s (ADDED 11/1/12)
—
Jewson
3pt e/w – Sir Des Champs @ 12s
3pt e/w – Solix @ 12s
0.75 e/w Solix @ 12s (ADDED 9/2/12)Fred Winter
0.75pt e/w – Kazlian @ 16s (ADDED 9/2/12)
—
Albert Bartlett
Sea Of Thunder – 3pt e/w @16s
Boston Bob – 2pt @ 9/2 (ADDED 9/2/12)Triumph
Hinterland – 4pt e/w @ 10s
Urbain De Sivola – 1.5pt e/w @ 20s (ADDED 9/2/12)Gold Cup
Quel Esprit – 1.5pt e/w @ 33s NRNB
Quel Esprit – 1pt @ 40s (ADDED 11/1/12)
What a Friend – 7.5pt e/w @ 20s without KS and LR (ADDED 9/2/12)2pts e/w treble.
Noble Prince @ 6s – Ryanair
Al Ferof @ 13/2 – Arkle
Sir Des Champs @ 122 – Jewson10pt – All 4 champs retaining @ 30s (ADDED SOMETIME LAST WEEK DURING THE SPECIAL BETFRED OFFER)
At the minute I’m quite happy with how I stand. The bets I’m kicking myself about is Hinterland mainly – I always get sucked into a Triumph hype horse too early, and I wished I’d have done Grandouet each way. But not too bad all the less.
The most recent additions as follows:
Harry The Viking – NH Chase. Nicholls talked this as a definite target, and the way he stayed on over 3m 2f last time out suggests that the extra distance should be well within reach. Will probably be favourite on the day owing to connections.
Forpadydeplasterer – QMCC. Please don’t think I’m mental for adding this. I’m figuring that the QMCC will cut up badly this year, as a lot of trainers are wanting to swerve SE and will target their horses elsewhere. I figure that FDP will definitely turn up, and he goes well at the course and on better ground. Plus, he doesn’t have all that much to find with Big Zeb on LTO form. And you never know in racing, one of the big two may tip up. I think you’ll be looking at a field of Sizing Europe, Big Zeb, Finnian’s Rainbow, Gauvain, Forpady, Hold Fast, Wishful Thinking and a few rags. Wishful may not run and isn’t good enough. Hold Fast may run in the handicap. Gauvain isn’t good enough. Somersby may go in the Ryanair. I think that it’s all to play for.
Kazlian – Fred Winter. A fair price. Won’t be good enough for the Triumph, and the Pipe’s have been pretty smart in looking after its mark.
Boston Bob – Albert Bartlett. Ok so I’m trying to second guess Mullins which is madness. But I figure that on better ground, and with Fingal Bay going the Neptune route, he’ll start as 6/4 fav with Ruby on top. May top up again in the coming weeks.
Urbain De Sivola – Triumph. Still 20s. Hammered Ranjaan and didn’t look like stopping. Is declared over the next week or so, and a victory would see the price contract. Is 12s in places. No obvious superstar in the juvenile ranks.
What A Friend – Gold Cup. Highlighted elsewhere by another forumite. ¼ odds 3 places without the big 2. Midnight Chase is 7s for the same bet and that has 8 lengths to find on WAF. All second season chasers have form that leaves them with plenty to find with Midnight Chase let alone WAF. WAF is longer in this market with bet365 than Grand Crus, Synchronised, Midnight Chase, Captain Chris, TFR, QDLR, Jessie’s Dream, Boston’s Angel, Diamond Harry and Tidal Bay. Half of those won’t run. Its a corking bet.
10 ptss on the special???? Aggressive.
Effectively with thoe multiples it could come down to you being confident to put 85ish points on long run. Love your balls.
Love your balls.
My nomination for TRF sentence of the year.
I can’t see me doing much else until the entries for the handicaps are out.
Supreme Novices’; Midnight Game 14/1 5pts
Arkle Trophy; Al Ferof 12/1 9pts, 10/1 2pts
Champion Hurdle; Zarkandar 12/1 2.5ptsQueen Mother; Sizing Europe 14/1 5pts
Champion Bumper; Moscow Mannon 16/1 3ptsJewson; Solix 14/1 7pts, 12/1 4pts (I’ve gone a bit mad here)
Ryanair; Rubi Light 25/1 4ptsTriumph; Backing & laying of Darroun means I stand to win 32pts for a total stake of 0. Laid off my Dildar bet, dreadful horse.
Albert Bartlett; Fingal Bay 9.66/1 10ptsThe Big 4; 50/1 15pts, 134/1 2pts
Also stand to win the same amount for every combination of The Big 4, Zarkandar & Captain Chris (Gold Cup).
Peddler’s Cross & The Big 4; 451/1 1.7pts
Al Ferof + The Big 4; 1354/1 1.5pts
Stand to win the same amount on Al Ferof & every combination of the Big 4, Zarkandar & Captain Chris (Gold Cup).
Al Ferof + Hurricane Fly; 20/1 3pts
Al Ferof + Zarkandar; 63/1 1pt
Sizing Europe + Big Buck’s; 11/1 10pts
Hurricane Fly + Fewer than 12 runners in the Champion Hurdle; 11/1 10pts
Hurricane Fly + Djokovic/Nadal to win all 4 Majors in 2012; 12/1 20pts
Sizing Europe + Mario Gomez to win the Bundesliga Golden Boot; 23.75/1 5pts EWWill probably be getting on Sous le Cieux for the Neptune on the weekend.
I am stuck and i keep finding myself topping up bets. I have far too much exposure to long run now and Rock on Ruby without Hurricane. i need the handicaps to get a good look at.
However I have promised myself to go easy on the handicaps my record is awful in them. I love the festival plate which seems to have solid trends ie low weights.
The hiurdle handicaps are a nightmare, county, conditionals, pertemps. Urgh.
Love the chases and the amateur races are decent too. When do the initial entries get released?
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