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March 20, 2019 at 12:25 #1402831
Any views on LAURINA should be off chasing maybe JLT be race as 2m look on short side
March 20, 2019 at 13:15 #1402834Big guessing game that Darren- Klassical Dream could do either- you’d imagine if he wins well at Punchestown they might have a go at the Champion? They don’t have a surefire 2 mile hurdler as of now + he is probably their best chance of getting another CH in the near future. Aramon ran well too, and on better ground he’ll be a good horse, probably not a surefire CH winner by any means!
Unless Laurina does something great at Punchestown i’d hope she’d be off chasing now- over 2m or 2m5. She could go from the front in a Arkle if her jumping is good.
The other that springs to mind most for the Arkle would be Melon- his sire would be a slight negative, but i think he looks like he could make a chaser. He’s definitely levelled out over hurdles, and is unlikely to be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. The way he raced in this years CH, i wouldn’t mind seeing him in an Arkle, if his jumping is ok, he could be held up or run from the front. It could get a little more improvement out of him the way he travels (when in form).
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!March 20, 2019 at 15:20 #1402843Stayers hurdle:
Paisley Park won the Stayers Hurdle pretty easily. Way he quickened in the straight impressive before making a mistake at the last. Winning imo with more in hand than the distances imply. People have possibly under-estimated the form, with outsider Sam Spinner in second, but that outsider had every chance on his best form. Paisley Park seems equally effective on soft and good ground, put up a performance good enough to win most renewals and still young/unexposed enough to improve further. After a dodgy career start has been a sound racehorse for two seasons.Added to that, there aren’t that many serious rivals. I’d have been very keen on Sam Spinner @ 33/1, but he probably needs it pretty soft and may be heading for the RSA along with Commander Of Fleet, City Island and Minella Indo. 2017 winner Penhill is second favourite, but is hard to keep fit (ditto Next Destination) and will be 9 years old, Faugheen 12 if staying in training… And I’d fancy Paisley Park to beat all of those, anyway.
Even with the normal risk of injury – Paisley Park is 7/2… Given his form, surely has a better than 22% chance of winning a race whose history is littered with dual and even triple winners more than any other race at the Festival?
Value Is EverythingMarch 20, 2019 at 16:19 #1402844Brassil said Stayers regarding City Island straight after the race.
I’d rather back a 7/2 shot this weekend than a hoss running in 12 months but each to their own Ginge.
March 20, 2019 at 17:35 #1402845Anyone know what is happening with Winter Escape ?
Would be quite happy to take an any race price if it was a minor injury.
March 20, 2019 at 17:55 #1402848With the vast majority of horses I’d agree with you, Kev; but every horse has a good price to back it.
Had the Stayers Hurdle been this weekend I’d expect Paisley Park to start extremely short, very near odds-on. My assessment allows for the chance of not running.
Any horse (whether this weekend or next year) a punter believes has a fair chance of between 9/4 and 5/2; thinks 7/2 is a good bet. Am glad so many punters want bigger ante-post prices, makes better value odds for those of us that do bet. I know when this kind of price loses it puts many punters off. But don’t get me wrong, it still means I believe Paisley Park has around a 70% chance of losing.
Value Is EverythingMarch 20, 2019 at 20:31 #1402851Where can you find ‘For any race’ markets? I haven’t been able to find it anywhere yet.
William Hill, skybet and ladbrokes when I was the other day
Blackbeard to conquer the World
March 21, 2019 at 12:40 #1402889Winter Escape burst at Leopardstown Botchy, so presume they’ve given him time to get over that. Ryanair GC, as quoted on the below link, would make most sense if he was mine.
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/no-rush-over-escape-plan/158132
March 21, 2019 at 12:57 #1402890Winter Escape burst at Leopardstown Botchy, so presume they’ve given him time to get over that. Ryanair GC, as quoted on the below link, would make most sense if he was mine.
Thanks very much for that Kev, been searching all over for some news.
Doubtful he can keep that 150 rating, considering he gave a stone and a beating to A Plus Tard on his last win.
March 23, 2019 at 05:27 #1403017Klassical Dream looks like a JLT horse for next season. They were going to go Ballymore with him but as it came up soft on day 1 they went Supreme Novices. There isn’t a 2 and a half grade 1 hurdle so they would be stuck next season in a similar scenario.
Arkle is a possibility in a bog but as they said he would be better over further than 2 miles I would say JLT at this stage.March 23, 2019 at 08:38 #1403031Pretty certain that theyll send KD to the CH unless a star emerges..
March 24, 2019 at 20:33 #1403772The very low head carriage he showed in the supreme would slightly worry me if it were to continue and he went chasing
He was so slick over his hurdles they’d be mad not to train him for the champion hurdle imo
Be interesting to see how he looks if he runs again this season
April 13, 2019 at 23:45 #1417435Decided I will only back 3 horses at this very early stage.
I’ve fancied Santini for next year’s Gold Cup since last year’s Albert Bartlett (if not before). Ran a blinder in the RSA after a very interrupted prep (missing the Reynoldstown due to the flu jabs sounds like it was a big blow). He’s 12/1
Another horse from Seven Barrows is Interconnected who is available at 40/1 for the Ballymore. He ran a fantastic race on debut only being narrowly beaten (and mostly due to greenness) by Emitom, a proper 140 animal. He’ll be included as part of the Grech and Parkin dispersal.
Dynamite Dollars is an absolutely mental price at 50/1 with William Hill for the Champion Chase. Although this year’s novices have not been up to much he’s clearly one of the best and there’s every reason to think he could progress again next year. There have been classier horses, but surely he’s worth an eachway play at those odds. His form looks rock solid, particularly after Ornua’s Aintree victory.
April 14, 2019 at 08:53 #1417452I agree about Dynamite Dollars Krypton. 50s is huge and i’m rowing in behind you on that. Minella Indo is the one I’m most excited about @20s for the RSA. The way he pulled during the race and still beat a pretty decent Albert Bartlett field marks him out as a potential superstar in my book. Trying to get as much on in case he follows up at Punchestown.
May 5, 2019 at 19:21 #1431430What did people make of Botani’s bumper win at Kilbeggan where she won by 23 lengths and going away? Trained by Mullins. Surely one for the Mares Novice Hurdle. Currently 14-1 in the William Hill ‘win any race’ market.
May 9, 2019 at 13:40 #1433091CNC- Clearly useful enough. Far too early to be thinking Mares Novice for me though.
14/1 any race, when it’s very unlikely she’ll go anywhere else, i’d probably just back her for the race myself.
That debut at Leopardstown was a good run and a sign she’s working well (throwing her in the deep end on debut)
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 11, 2019 at 14:08 #1434963Has anyone seen a quote for Gypsy Island for the Ballymore ? 20s for the Supreme but I think he might need further by next Spring
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