- This topic has 43 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Well gentlemen (and ladies if there are any brave enough to trawl through these mucky waters!) I’ve long since been an admirer of the forum so I thought I’d take the plunge! You guys have covered most of the “flashier” races at Cheltenham already but I wanted to take a look at a few Irish horses that could be interesting (weight and entry permitting) for th handicaps at the festival. I couldn’t find a handicap thread so I decided this might be the most appropriate avenue. Hopefully I don’t put anyone’s nose out of joint!
I was going through some form last night and a few horses stood out to me that I’ll be keeping an eye on. One race I was drawn to was the Boylesports hurdle a couple of years ago when Flaxen Flare came second to Gilgamboa and in third was Quick Jack – that is some excellent form and one that has held up the past two years. Flaxen Flare then had two encounters with Plinth, one in which he fell when being the most likely winner and then he easily dispatched of his old rival at Galway. He since got off the mark over fences at Down Royal in May and hasn’t been seen since. I’ll be following him at Cheltenham if he pitches up with his excellent record there — winner in the fred winter, 4th in the greatwood and 5th in the County hurdle the year Lac Fontana won (Artic Fire in 2nd) when he was 2nd top weight, only behind Diakali.
The other two in that race, Gilgamboa and Quick Jack will be very interesting too. Gilgamboa will obv be lugging around a big weight if he goes over fences but he could exploit a more favourable hurdle mark if connections decide to chance their arm that route. After the Boylesports, he ran below par in the supreme and hasn’t been seen since over hurdles. I look forward to his entries at the festival to see connections thinking. He is entered in the Irish Gold Cup (formerly the Hennessy) and he could still pitch up in something like the ryanair but I’d like to see him in a handicap. He skipped the festival last year after being put firmly in his place by UDS in the Irish Arkle but did bounce back to win the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse. Hopefully he makes the trek across the water.
Quick Jack is obv of interest for connections who love a good plot (Ted Veale was a good one in the county a few years ago). He’s very unexposed still over hurdles but he obv will get a fair rise for bolting up in the Galway Hurdle last year. He would be of big interest in the county hurdle or Coral cup if he went that route. He’s won at Cheltenham before and he would probably be sub 6/1 for any target he goes for but if he was declared, he’d be of massive interest.
Another one I am very keen on in the same colours is Blair Perrone. He’s raced 5 times over fences and had an auspicious start falling first and being pulled up in his second race. After that though is where it get’s interesting. He came third in Douvan’s chase debut and then second to Zabana at Christmas. He made up massive ground after the second last in that race and poor auld Denny O’Regan must have been sh*tting himself that he was going to win! He gave him one small tap after the last fence and otherwise it was all hands and heels up the run in where he closed right up on the winner. Then lastly, only the punters on at 1/5 would have been happier than Tony Martin that K.Vic got back up to win the last day, as a grade 2 win would not have went down well with the handicapper! If he goes to the Grand Annual and has a nice weight (or even a reasonable one), He’ll be my handicap nap of the festival. Two years ago Phil Smith was well aware what the exact same connections were up to with Ted Veale and harshly treated him and forced him to go to the Arkle so a lot will depend on his English mark.
The last one I want to mention is Ballychorus. Equally adept over hurdles or fences, I think there is a big pot in this one. Her recent form figures in the past 6 runs are 1211FF. Both falls came in good races when she was leading in the Troytown (was going to be pressed by Riverside City and Goregous Conn) when coming down at the last and then afterwards in the Paddypower at Christmas when she was running another mighty race only to again fall at the last. She will need a bit of schooling and maybe a confidence booster but she could be very interesting for Barry Connell and Andrew Fleming. She might swerve Cheltenham and try and pick up something in the Spring festivals in Ireland but she is certainly one to keep an eye on.
Welcome to TRF Zeb.
We normally do a Handicap Thread, as well as few individual threads for some of the races. You should start one yourself, or if wanting to take it easy on your “first day”, I’ll start one later on tonight
Nice shout with Ballychorus, she was running a screamer before she came down in The Paddy Power, and she was nailed on to be there at the end.
These are my immediate Irish fancies for The Handicaps, but got loads more to come, so I’ll put them up in the coming weeks.
3 Miler – The first one I’ll mention is the horse who won that day, Minella Foru. I was lucky enough to catch him at 20’s a few weeks before the race, and he looks a sure thing to keep on progressing. I’ve bet him for the 3 miler on Day 1 at 20’s, and hopeful of a good showing. There’s always the chance he’ll head elsewhere, as he’s versatile trip wise, but confident this is the right race for him.
County Hurdle – I’ll have to see how he comes out of his comeback race the other day, but Ivan Grozny ran very well, and he could be a dark horse for this. Not quoted on the books at the moment.
Kim Muir – I reckon Cause of Causes has to head here, and I’d be very very hopeful of a big run. I’m sure the connections would get the likes of Jamie Codd to continue the partnership, which is worth a few lengths, and he’s on a fantastic mark, miles short of what he’s capable of. Landed the 4 Miler last year, ans should have won this 2 years ago, but wasn’t given a very good ride. He’s my number one fancy for The Festival at the moment. Another Irish one to consider for this is Guess Again, who was in the process of running a big race last year in this, before getting brought down.
Welcome, BigZeb, lovely post. I’ve long thought there was a decent race in Gilgamboa, but can never catch him. Will probably try again come March
Welcome Charlie & Bigzeb…tremendous first post that bigzeb…lot of thought and effort gone into that, love stuff like that!
Not really looked at many handicaps yet but one angle I’m strongly considering this year is having a real good look at anything David Pipe has! Think he’s had a real tough time so far this season and can just see the yard springing into life at the right time. They’re always a yard to watch in the handicaps anyway and surely will nick a winner or two…
Two I’m going to be looking out for are Kings Palace should he run in one of the handicaps….can’t see it personally but I’ve seen him towards the head of a market…the regard in which this horse is held, then if he drops to a handicap then surely he will go very close…
The other I’ll be keeping a keen eye out for will be La Vaticane….given a very positive write up in the yards stable tour in the racing post she’s jumped and travelled like a winner in all three starts but just hasn’t seemed to be finishing her races off (like many of the yards through lean times though)….rated (133) I feel sure she will be ‘readied’ and tuned up to the max for something at the festival and prove a little better than that current mark!
Zam, despite the fact I like Cause of Causes & Guess Again for The Kim Muir, it could be ideal for Amigo or Standing Ovation of Pipes, and Monetaire might be worth a second look in The Plate.
Thanks for the nice feedback lads. VTC, Minella Foru is one I would consider for sure. I think if himself and Gilgamboa met again, he might be able to reverse the form with a better pull in the weights. The second in that paddy power, Ucello Conti, has come out and franked the form in the Thyestes on Thursday when his jockey ran 4miles over a 3mile trip! He’s got to be kept inside too I think.
Cause of Causes is the typical Elliot festival horse. I lost a good deal two years ago when he couldn’t get the better of Spring Heeled in the Kim Muir. I overlooked him for the 4miler last year but I’ll be keeping a close eye on him this year. He’s only raced twice this year but in two very competitive hcaps where he finished in mid division both times. It will be interesting to see where he lines up but I’d also like to see him take in the Kim Muir again.
In the ante post market champagne James is the fav for the Kim Muir. He’s out at Navan today and it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on
I’m very happy with his prep so far Zeb, fingers crossed he heads for this. He was my biggest winner last year, on at 25’s, and I’ll have a good go on him for this, once he’s priced up
My idea of a fancy Mullins Lucky 63 would have to be Faugheen 5/4 Champion hurdle,one target only!
Un des Scaeux 6/4 Champion chase,one target only.Annie Power 6/1 World hurdle obvious target rather than the poorer Mares race,she’s proved she is World class.Don Poli 6/1 Gold cup Looks an out and out stayer certainly not a Ryanair horse,’Djakadam’obvious danger though!Douvan 4/1 Arkle again there’s a pattern with Willie Mullins horses and he looks a chaser too.The tricky call is Vautour 3/1 Ryanair a certainty if he took that route and again with Don Poli and Djakadam both Gold Cup types this could be his next year before going onto Gold cup glory the year after.A £1 Lucky 63 returns over £19k.
Why didn’t I just stick £10k on Douvan at 4/1 instead……Bloody Certainty he is!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.