- This topic has 880 replies, 116 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Horsesmouth
i agree the opposition was not much but it was how he handled the going that was the point I was making. He sprinted from the last hurdle on both occasions at the end of two miles on going he was supposed to hate( Soft, soft to heavy.Did not make sense.I’m a consistent backer of non-stayers in this race so Starluck will have to be my selection this year
if you go through GNs form his only defeats are in races run farcically slowly, when he pulls too hard. OK he won a slowly run Fighting Fifth but the difference there was that he settled.
I will ask you Carv, the same thing as I did Imperial Call.
If he idles because of being in front, why didn’t he idle when clear in the Fighting Fifth?
I believe the answer is he "idles" when lacking energy. In a slowly run race he has bags left in a finish. In a truly run race he is tired and "idles". Alternatively, it could be lack of stamina. It’s odds-on he will "idle" at Cheltenham. Some have said he found plenty in the Supreme, that’s nonsense, he was some way clear of Medermit at the last, yet only just held on. Despite the runner up being hampered slightly at the last.
Value Is EverythingAfter much deliberation and viewing endless old clips it looks to me as if Noele Meade has the best chance of winning the race this year.
Therefore I’ve placed my opening bet for The Festival
15 Points EW DONNAS PALM NRNB @ 40-1Hate to say this CS.
But I agree with you.
Or rather, I believe he is excellant value at 40/1 nrnb, bog. Although I’ve backed it win only, as I have backed others in the race too.Value Is EverythingBig Bucks
I wouldn’t be backing anything on the strength of ‘tactical pace’ – it’s rarely a factor in Champion Hurdles.
Not many had more than Binocular, but it was useless when it counted.If you watch the race last year guess which 2 horses race side-by-side?
Except if you watch carefully, when the mid-race pace quickens, it is Punjabi who takes a length out of Binocular with his mid-race move, leaves Bino for dead effectively, and surges to victory. His mid-race tactical speed was the best in the race, and it is that which won him the Champion Hurdle. So I disagree entirely.That wasn’t tactical speed BB, it was AP delaying his challenge until later.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
I think you are wrong about GN Reet. The difference between him and Harchi is that he finds plenty off the bridle but dosses in front. The burst of speed will be there for Paul Carberry, his job is to wait and use it after the last, not 2 out as in the Supreme. Two things beat GN- being in front too soon or failing to settle in slowly run races. I think the only horse with the ability to beat him if he quickens after the last is Solwhit and there must be a serious doubt if he’ll be at his best even if he lines up.
But if a horse "dosses in front" he does it all the time Carv, and not just in races run as a proper test. It’s certainly not something he’s done in all 5 of his wins at a slower pace.
Ginger – Everyone has to satisfy themselves of what they see, this is true. I’m happy that Punjabi, having travelled as well as Binocular, then outspeeded him, then outstayed him. For me that’s tactical, and it decided the race in his favour.
- Total Posts 17716
Big Bucks
You can’t have a race run at a ‘lung bursting pace’ in one post, then have it won by ‘tactical speed’ in another. Make your mind up?Why not. Everyone expected Binocular to show acceleration. Yet when Punjabi does it at a mind-boggling point in the race – Ruby has floored the accelerator on Halo and Punjabi matched it and went past him – and apparently it’s of no consequence? Binocular paddled, he didn’t have what Punjabi had and just stayed on when the race was gone.
Maybe the race will be run differently and different qualities will come to the fore, but that doesn’t detract from the superb move by the reigning champion to win the race, not just stamina, not just flashy acceleration at the end.
- Total Posts 17716
BB
As I said earlier, I doubt the race will be run much differently to the vast majority of Champion hurdles – i.e. it will be run at a Championship pace. The lowest t/s figure of any winner in the last 10 renewals was a none-too-dusty 145.
Last year the 155 took the edge off Binocular’s speed but wasn’t fast enough for the test Celestial Halo needs (imo). I’d agree with you that Punjabi has most of the attributes for such a test, the only fly in the ointment being Solwhit, who ideally needs proper soft ground or an all-out pace – at this distance.
All IMVHO, of course.Reet, the poor times of the last 2 renewals was because they went too fast. The fast pace helped Celestial to get so close
Interesting people are talking about the pace in this race.
I was at a preview night on Wednesday and Davy Russell said that Celestial Halo will wear blinkers for the first time, but Ruby told him he doesn’t want to make the running and that the horse is better getting a lead.
He also said Solwhit is almost definitely not going to make it and he will ride Won In The Dark who hasn’t a hope.
Also interesting to see that Geraghty is on Punjabi, and Andrew Tinkler on Zaynar.
You’d have thought if Zaynar was going to be ‘the one’, then Geraghty would be on him, and not Punjabi.
After much deliberation and viewing endless old clips it looks to me as if Noele Meade has the best chance of winning the race this year.
Therefore I’ve placed my opening bet for The Festival
15 Points EW DONNAS PALM NRNB @ 40-1Hate to say this CS.
But I agree with you.
Why do you hate to agree with me?
Or rather, I believe he is excellant value at 40/1 nrnb, bog. Although I’ve backed it win only,Why not EW?
as I have backed others in the race too.
Not a good enough answer
Only joking CS, it was just we seem to have different ideas on what to look for in a bet, then come to the same conclusion.
Don’t like betting each way when I believe the race is wide open. In the Champion there’s only one or two no hopers. Prefer to bet two, three or six horses to win. I like backing each way in races where I can see the winner coming from 5 or 6 horses, it’s a better value bet that way. e.g. backed both Get Me Out Of Here and Menorah in the Supreme. If I had an each way on Donnas at 40/1, the place would not get back all what I might lose on the rest anyway.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.