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The declarations have been made for the CH.
No real suprises.
Punjabi
Zaynar
Binocular
Solwhit
Go Native
Kyber Kim
Dunguib
Hurricane Fly
Rock Noir has an entry.Well he doesn’t tick all the boxes as I’ve said, but people see what they want to see…
Or in your case fail to see what there is to see!
Not really TAPK, I’ve yet to hear any response about the awful record of xmas hurdle winners, nor the fact that he had his prep in December, nor the fact that he downed tools at Kempton and almost lost to Starluck, a flat track mincer.
I’m happy with my view though.
Not really TAPK, I’ve yet to hear any response about the awful record of xmas hurdle winners, nor the fact that he had his prep in December, nor the fact that he downed tools at Kempton and almost lost to Starluck, a flat track mincer.
I’m happy with my view though.
"a flat track mincer"!!
I wouldn"t be bothered in the slightest about the record of xmas hurdle winners going on to win the Champion hurdle!His victory in the Supreme is enough to see him as a serious player,particularly when Alan King wants to keep the Chaser "Medermit" to hurdling,he recognises talent when he sees it!No doubts about Go Native getting up the hill either!He is certainly capable of erasing the memories of dear old Harchibald if Paul rides him!imo.At our NH preview they said to ignore anything that Go Native does before cheltenham, because he will be a much better horse there. Wish I’d backed him then for the Ch Hurdle.
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Not really TAPK, I’ve yet to hear any response about the awful record of xmas hurdle winners, nor the fact that he had his prep in December, nor the fact that he downed tools at Kempton and almost lost to Starluck, a flat track mincer.
I’m happy with my view though.
"a flat track mincer"!!
I wouldn"t be bothered in the slightest about the record of xmas hurdle winners going on to win the Champion hurdle!His victory in the Supreme is enough to see him as a serious player,particularly when Alan King wants to keep the Chaser "Medermit" to hurdling,he recognises talent when he sees it!No doubts about Go Native getting up the hill either!He is certainly capable of erasing the memories of dear old Harchibald if Paul rides him!imo.No it’s not and No he’s not. No where near good enough and he’ll be cut down like corn in a fields full of haymakers. Alan King has made it quite clear Merdemit is not a Champion Hurdle horse and the only reason he’s keeping him to hurdles is he thinks it’s too late to go chasing rainbows and trying to win the Arkle.
I still say Binocular will beat them all especially now that Nicky Henderson has found out what was wrong with him. Apparently he wasn’t running fast enough
Anyway what happened to Celestial Halo will win? Have you like his owner given up on the idea?Big Bucks’,
In response to your arguments:
Punjabi fell in the christmas hurdle last year when looking the winner. Katchit competed at Cheltenham as often as he could and 7 of the previous 9 winners before that were Irish and so more unlikely to contest it given they could stay at home for Leopardstown. I wouldn’t be too concerned to be honest. I can’t be bothered to check but I bet the winner of the Leopardstown Grade 1 (Name escapes me) in the champion over the last 10 years is pretty good.
I agree about the structure of his campaign but Meade has obviously designed his campaign to give him a good tilt at the bonus.
I don’t think he downed tools or if he did he’s won a few grade 1’s whilst downing tools.
Not sure I will be backing him mostly because I think he will run out of steam but he is definitely a potential winner imho.
He’s one to back and lay off in running.
I’ve yet to hear any response about the awful record of xmas hurdle winners, nor the fact that he had his prep in December
I have problems generally with the trends-based approach to winner-finding. Weighing up Go Native’s Champion Hurdle chance in this way shows why. Last week in the Post’s CH pull-out, their trends man, Craig Thake, identified "the top Champion Hurdle trends." There were nine of them and the only entrant for the race to tick every single box was Go Native. His selection for the race? Punjabi. He dismissed Go Native’s perfect "score" with the words: "If something looks too good to be true, it often is…"
Leaving aside the rather bizarre reason for rejecting Go Native, we have one trends man who selects nine criteria with which the horse conforms and another (Big Buck’s) who selects two with which he doesn’t. In other words, trends can be manipulated to come up with whatever selection you want. It’s not very scientific, is it?
So, go on then, BB, using your own words, I’d like to "hear any response" you have to the following "top CH trends" (copyright: Craig Thake) which apply to Go Native: aged 6 to 9; 9 to 25 career runs over hurdles; won Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 handicap hurdle; RPR of at least 157; Festival winner; won Grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season; Topspeed of at least 152; rated within 7lbs of RPR top-rated; won last time out.
Incidentally, I should declare an interest in that I’ve backed the horse ante-post. I think he’s got a decent but not outstanding chance. If he’s beaten at Cheltenham, however, I won’t be blaming the fact that he won the Christmas Hurdle or that he hasn’t run since December. I’ll actually conclude that he wasn’t good enough.
Ante-Post, Im not saying that Binocular is finished, but surely it seems he has regressed this year?
Only to the eye!Come the day, Binocular will be the horse that gets backed for the race,i can still see him going off favourite!!Big words from TAPK i know!Last year he was my lay of the meeting at 6/4,and very nearly cost me,what with the hill and that,but this year i am absolutely 100% convinced he is being laid out for the race,that is his one and only target!Like i keep saying last years race was top class and the winner will come from it! Celestial Halo.THE FORMS ROCK SOLID!
Fist you
are a plonker at times! Alan King has made it quite clear Merdemit is not a Champion Hurdle horse and the only reason he’s keeping him to hurdles is he thinks it’s too late to go chasing rainbows and trying to win the Arkle.
Medermit has been running since November,Alan King could have had him jumping fences then,his first run at Cheltenham behind Khyber Kim giving him weight reads well! Alan King stated clearly then that his next run would be over fences,a change of mind after the Khyber kim form starts to look promising!For sure when i first did my own Arkle analysis some 8 months ago,Medermit was my second choice to Somersby,thanks again to the Go Native "Supreme" form and Supreme it is! Chasing rainbows my A**e!
Still needs ground on the soft side though, doesn’t he? Whereas most of the horses we’ve seen so far will be better come March. Course form agin, though.
That’s more like it tbh. Down to the nitty gritty.
He has a chance of course, I’ve outlined a type of race where I’d actually back him, but it’s not the kind of race he’s likely to face in the CH. But you never know. He has a fine record and within that he downs tools – he did it in the Supreme and he did it at Kempton, for example – so essentially we have a horse with perfectly normal CH form, with a touch of the binocular’s all over again. Thought people were going overboard about a neck win over Starluck the mighty mincer, who couldn’t finish his evening meal off let alone a proper race. "He’ll outspeed them". It’s not a flat track is it, he got away with it in the Supreme, just. Proper rain would be to his disadvantage also.
No doubt he’ll go close if he’s in there looking flash at the last, but I don’t want close I want the winner, and as yet I can’t be sure who that is, I’m hoping the forthcoming trials will shed a little more light on things.
I find trends can be very useful but they’re not to be followed religiously! Trends can be applied to any race but sometimes a races nature means all the stats analysis in the world wont help. The Champion Hurdle this year is one such race. As this thread identifies there are at least 10 strong fancies for the race! The bookies are betting like its a tough sprint handicap and the fractions for success/failure are likely to be one poor jump, one shuffling back on a turn or going for home a half a yard too soon. Surely the race of the whole festival most likely to involve a photo finish!
However, thats what makes it compelling! Pays your money and takes your choice! I am for Go Native!
I find trends can be very useful but they’re not to be followed religiously! Trends can be applied to any race but sometimes a races nature means all the stats analysis in the world wont help. The Champion Hurdle this year is one such race. As this thread identifies there are at least 10 strong fancies for the race! The bookies are betting like its a tough sprint handicap and the fractions for success/failure are likely to be one poor jump, one shuffling back on a turn or going for home a half a yard too soon. Surely the race of the whole festival most likely to involve a photo finish!
Douginho
On goodish ground it might be a close thing but on soft ground one horse will be steaming up the hill 4 or 5 lengths in front and that great sage of the forum Mr Hopper has it spot on.
I dont foresee any Rooster Booster winning margins, definitely not. Many of these can handle soft so just cant see one horse running away with it.
douginho wrote…….. just cant see one horse running away with it.
You are probably right….unless Dunguib runs of course!
If he doesn’t run and with a bit of a cloud over Voler La Vadette’s fitness (she might miss The Festival) I’m coming round to Go Native but after seeing Paul Carberry screw up big time "Harchibald" style (yet) again on Muirhead on Tuesday I’ll be keeping my cash in my pocket if he’s on board
are a plonker at times! 
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