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Does Anyone know if a Novice gets a weight allowance in the champion hurdle? Just wondering if that would tempt Dungib or Menorah to take their chance?
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Does Anyone know if a Novice gets a weight allowance in the champion hurdle? Just wondering if that would tempt Dungib or Menorah to take their chance?
thanksNo allowance for novices but mares get 7lbs which should persuade connections of Voler Le Vadette to run in the Cham Hurdle rather than the mares race. She’d only be 2 lbs worse off with Go Native for giving him a 13 lengths thrashing
CheltenhamSpecialist, VLV beat Go Native when he was only 50% ready for the race. Let there be no doubt, Go Native will reverse the form, if they clash at Cheltenham, but that wont happen anyway. She’ll be in the Mares race.
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I can’t see where a horse who won a 2m4f Relkeel hurdle and took all the time in the world to fob off moderate horses is a worthy Champion Hurdle favourite.
To win a Champion Hurdle you need to have the ability to jump foot perfectly and even one mistake can turn a winning chance into no chance.
Zaynar is one tough cookie but he’s still a young horse who showed the very reason why you shouldn’t back him the last time he ran. Sure he could win if everything fell into place on the day but he’s one dodgy bet to do so.
I’m not making excuses for Binocular but look at the way he jumped the last. He landed flat footed and they were half way up the run in before AP got him going again. That climb to the winning post is probably the slowest part of the race, your horse jumps slowly like that at one hurdle out in the country the chances are you’ll lose a lot more ground than he did and never get back into the race.
Go Native maybe should be fav but there are too many questions to be answered so the bookies are willing to take a bigger chance with him. He is a very fast jumper and travels very easily. The $million question is will he do what he did behind hurricane fly or will he see out his race.
If you watch him closely last time out he goes past Binocular so easily and gracefully if he could reproduce that form he’d win the Champion Hurdle by a street.
But there’s too many possible defects in the form of both his wins. Like how fit were the others and the pace of both races he won; .2 seconds slower than the novice hurdle on the same day at Kempton and an amazing 5 seconds slower than the maiden hurdle on the same day at Newcastle.
So you have to look beyond that: At Tipperary when he won again it was run at a crawl a massive 11.9 seconds than the maiden hurdle the race before. He was beaten at Down Royal but that day the race was run at a decent pace being 3 seconds faster than the maiden hurdle.
He’s looked better than ever this season and if the Champion Hurdle was run at crawl he’d just about be a certainty to win it. That isn’t going to happen.
I think what we saw last season in the Supreme was a brilliantly exectuted plan to steal the race. Instead of holding him up they used his turn of foot after the 2nd last and got far enough in front so he wouldn’t be caught.
What haunts me is when he was beaten prior to the Supreme by Hurricane Fly and did the same against the mare VLV recently. He just wasn’t going well against HF he was pulling his jockeys arms out. Just before the last his jockey took a massive pull and he looked like he was going to take off and win easily.
As we know he didn’t, he found nothing. On reflection I don’t think he’s a rougue, that wouldn’t be a fair thing to say. I just think in top class with a good pace he’s not going to find anything because it’s simply not there to find.
His trainer said he doesn’t have to be held up to the last minute to win the Champion Hurdle. I think he knows if he tries to do that the tank will be empty when they get to the last. His only option is to try and do what he did in the Supreme and hop nothing can go with him after the 2nd last but with Punjabi and Binocular around that won’t be easy and if he falters like he did last year he won’t find Solwhit as forgiving as Merdemit.
I think Go Native is bang up against it no matter how the run him and I’d have Solwhit as fav at this time.
He already bounced back from his defeat at Newcastle and he would be the least suited by the pace that day. He’s in good form Binocular wasn’t the last time we saw him and Punjabi still has to win this season.
If I’m not convinced Binocular is back to his best come CH day I’ll be backing Solwhit to recoup losses.
Go Native has beaten both Solwhit and Binocular on merit. Zaynar should be running in the Stayers, as Ive said before. He just does not have the turn of foot required for 2 mile Championship races, and in the Stayers, he only has one horse to beat.
Voler La Vedette has beaten Go Native on merit too though. Noel said he was only half-fit on the day but he couldn’t have needed the run that much after already having a blow out against River Liane at Limerick Junction. I accept that the ground was against him up North and Paul didn’t beat him up but the mare beat him out of sight and Murphy thinks she’ll improve for better ground as well.
The price differential between Go Native and VLV is all wrong IMO. Maybe its because people think she’ll swerve the Champion and run in the mares race but I think that’ll change next Sunday!
Imperial, we shall see, but she wasn’t nearly as impressive at Leopardstown over Christmas, was she? I think it was a combination of factors. Go Native not being ready, hating the ground and perhaps just having an off-day, while VLV perhaps had an on-day!! You are correct that Paul just left Go Native come home in his own time, but that was under orders from Noel, not to be too hard on him, as theres much more important races to come, which I think has proven the case. Also, more importandly for me, Noel Meade has stated he wished he had never run him against VLV, and that NOW he has found the key to this horse. I just have not seen a better jumper of hurdles around, he jumps so quickly and travels very strongly. Yes, he’s quirky, but if delivered at the right time, he’ll pick up any horse in that field. I think its important not to get too carried away by one very good run from a mare. Remember Quevega at Cheltenham? Stunning win, went to Punchestown, where she was firmly put in her place by the boys. I just could not be having VLV as a genuine Champion Hurdle chance, I cant even see her being in the field when the day arrives.
I hope you’re right Imperial, although I have a bad feeling she’ll go for the mares race.
Aido, if my memory serves me correctly, Quevega wasn’t that far off the boys was she?
thehorsesmouth,
Quevega wasn’t that far off, but far enough! She never really looked like winning at Punchestown. Im not saying that VLV isn’t a good mare, just to keep things in perspective, thats all. I hope she lines up for your sake, and anyone who backed her, but personally, I dont see the point in it. In the mares race, its only really Quevega she has to beat, and she hasnt been seen in a long time!!Well, I haven’t backed her, but if she was to run in the Champion I probably will. This mare is all about speed, and the 2 miles at Cheltenham will suit her down to the ground imo. Unfortunately though I think she’ll run in the mares race.
Quevega wasn’t far off the boys but she never ran in a Grade 1 against them outside of juvenile company (before Cheltenham last year). Her Cheltenham prep was against Sesenta who is a far better flat horse than hurdler. Voler La Vedette will have a run in a proper Champion Hurdle trial come Sunday. If she runs respectably against the likes of Solwhit, Celestial Halo & Zaynar then I think Murphy will swerve the mares race and go for the big prize.
Her performance over Christmas was probably a tad disappointing considering she was a 1/3 shot. However, the race was over 2m4 in dead ground and Townend rode her to get the trip. She still won comfortably giving weight to Jessie Harrington’s two mares. 2 miles on decent ground is what she wants and the drop down in trip is going to suit. I’m sure Murphy will have left something to work on after that race. She was in the Grade 1 against Solwhit and if she had been fully fit over Christmas then surely they would have had a crack at that race especially after Hurricane Fly was ruled out.
I think she HAS to beat them to be a serious Champion Hurdle horse, and I just cant see that happening. As Ive said a million times, I cant understand why Zaynar is not being aimed for the Stayers.
Go Native has beaten both Solwhit and Binocular on merit. Zaynar should be running in the Stayers, as Ive said before. He just does not have the turn of foot required for 2 mile Championship races, and in the Stayers, he only has one horse to beat.
Hardy Eustace had no turn of foot. The same arguably applies to both Brave Inca and Punjabi.
The way the Champion Hurdle is run generally suits strong stayers, and it usually takes an exceptional hurdler in the Istabraq (who stayed well himself) mould, to win the race with a turn of foot.
Zaynar isn’t likely to face anything of that calibre in the Champion Hurdle, and he very much fits the profile of a potential winner, imo. Contrast his chance on the Tuesday, with running in the Stayers – a race where he is unproven as regards to stamina, and where he would be meeting an exceptional animal.
The Champion Hurdle is a vastly more logical target on practically every measure, imo.
Agreed. I would not want to take on Big Bucks’ when the champion is so open. If he doesn’t win the champion he can step him up next year. He is only five and the Champion is a hard enough race let alone the stayers against Goliath.
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Grassy
I don’t recall any Champion Hurdler having the profile of never running over 2m in his CH winning season, and it apppears that the only reason Zaynar isn’t running in the World Hurdle is because his trainer doesn’t think he’s mature enough.
Given the way he’s been raced and placed this season, I’d also suggest he’s very much Nicky Henderson’s 3rd string, and once again he’s elbowed aside for a CH trial (Contenders Hurdle) in Binocular’s favour, and is re-routed to a Mickey Mouse 2m2f race (at Kelso, of all places). It’s all very well having speed against questionable opposition in 2.5m races (though he beat the stayer Karabak comfortably in the end, he wasn’t exactly running all over him at the distance) but he’ll need to show a darn sight more than he did in the Triumph to even hope for a place in the Champion.
Imo, of course.I’d agree with that to an extent, Reet. Zaynar does seem to be the one to be shoved aside, when it comes to running plans. Of course, that may also be down to NJH thinking he is the most adaptable of the three, and therefore less of a concern. And let’s face it – Henderson’s mastery of the pecking order of his hurdlers is debatable, if last year’s Champion Hurdle result is anything to go by.
I’m also of the opinion that last year’s Triumph was a high-class event (something borne out by the form being franked in plenty of races since), and that Zaynar wouldn’t need to show a "darn sight more", to take a hand in the Champion Hurdle finish. I’d peg it at around a stone improvement since last March, which is not an unreasonable to find – whereas he would need another half-stone at least, to give Big Buck’s a race in the Stayers.
It’s all moot anyway – my confidence in Solwhit increases with each passing day.
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