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Hatton’s Grace hurdle Sunday
3 pts winCatch Me
3/1 Ladbrokes
My spies tell me he runs on Sunday and I can’t see him starting bigger than 7/4 in this field. To me he is the best hurdler in training at this trip on soft ground and if he reproduces his best he’ll win. The only worry is how his recent fall might have affected his confidence but the stable vibes are good.
unpl 11/10 -3 pts.Drinmore Novice Chase Sunday
1 pt winPesoto
5/1 Paddy Power
Again my sources tell me he runs. I was impressed with his latest all the way win as I rate the second who was well beaten. He’d be a stronger bet but for the worry that this race has a lot of front runners including him so there must be a risk of a few of them going too fast in what’s sure to be testing ground.
unpl 5/1 -1 pt.Hatton’s Grace Hurdle Sunday
1 pt winOscar Dan Dan
10/1 Paddy Power
would have gone close to beating Aitmatov the last day at Navan and is better suited to going right-handed. Well worth a saver for our Catch Me bet.
won 11/2 +10ptsDrinmore Novice Chase
1 pt winWhatuthink
7/1 Paddy Power
Despite my fears about the excess pace in this race this horse looks overpriced. He’d be arguably the best of them over hurdles and has shown a decent level of chasing ability at trips which would have been on the short side. Unless chasing too strong a pace if he jumps well he must be right in it.
fell 9/2 -1 pt.12.25 Newbury , 1.15 Newcastle
1 pt doubleSereth, Weapon’s Amnesty
7/4, 9/4.
Sereth was super-impressive the last day and his high-class Flat speed should be decisive.
Weapon’s Amnesty has been crying out for 3 miles left-handed and today is the day.
2nd 6/4, won 11/8 – 1 pt.
1.55 Fairyhouse
1 pt winPerce Rock
13/2g Paddy Power
Goes well fresh, loves soft and better handicapped over hurdles than fences. Bit worried about his trainer’s negative comments before his ultimately abandoned engagement on Wednesday at Naas but hoping there was an element of smokescreen about it.
unpl 7/1 – 1 pt.November
Staked 43 pts
Loss 0.2 pts.The frustrating run continues, not helped by not including 2 good winners backed in Hercomesthetruth and Galant Nuit. Consolation is that despite having the worst year in the last dozen or more I’m still in front, and plan to improve a dismal set of figures before year end.
Drinmore N Chase
1 pt win Mr Warbucks 14/1 Paddy Power.
I have a nice book here with 5/1 Pesoto and 7/1 Whatuthink. At the revised prices Adrian Maguire’s beast looks a bit overpriced to me. There was no fluke in his defeat of Whatuthink first time over fences at Thurles when he won a bit snugly. The latter has better hurdles form and will improve for the step up in trip but that doesn’t mean there should be as much between them as the betting indicates- Mr Warbucks is more of the late developing chaser type and also promises to stay really well. He jumped cleanly at Thurles and could easily be involved here.
unpl 10/1 -1 pt.NB Paddy Power are allowing all my ante post bets above to stand. As far as I can tell the Catch Me bet stands with Ladbrokes also.
King George Ante Post
1 pt each way Madison de Berlais 12-1 Hills
Not many runners here and Madison is one of the only threats to another Kauto victory on the form of his defeat of Denman over C and D last season. Would have needed the run in the Betfair and would have hated the ground, will scoot around Kempton much better and can at least be placed.
2nd 10/1 +2 pts.2.55 Fairyhouse
1 pt win Danderry 7/1 ladbrokes.
Fav is strongly fancied but this fella won well the last day and looked as if further would suit.
Unpl 4/1 -1 pt.The frustrating run continues, not helped by not including 2 good winners backed in Hercomesthetruth and Galant Nuit. Consolation is that despite having the worst year in the last dozen or more I’m still in front, and plan to improve a dismal set of figures before year end.
Have you been able to pinpoint any specific reasons for the lean spell this year, carvills?
1.30 Navan
0.75 pts each-way Baile Ui Chomain 5/1 Victor C
Impressive in his bumper, I reckon the front 2 are vulnerable.
unpl 11/2 -1.5 pts.Arkle Chase ante post
1 pt win Sommersby 10/1 Hills
Very impressed with his jumping today, in good hands to peak in March when he’ll start half this price.John Durkan Memorial Punchestown tomorrow
1 pt win J’y Vole best morning price (14-1 tonight)
Looks sure to get an easy lead on ground she loves. Goes well fresh and might be more wound up for this than some of the others.
3rd 10-1 -1 pt.C.R.
The truth is that I don’t know. I take comfort from the fact that Alan Potts admitted to a terrible run on here up to earlier this year so it can happen to the best. Possible excuses are:
1) I was winning a right lump up till the end of April (if I’d stopped then it would have been my no.2 year of all time in just 4 months) and that period coincided with all but one of the online bookies restricting me and having to use intermediaries much more. I find this process difficult, as the element of privacy is gone and there is more pressure as they piggyback your selections so when you lose they lose.
2) This period also coincided with a fairly significant increase in stakes, undertaken right at the point of the losing run beginning. Continuing with normal stakes would have meant much less impact on the bottom line, as it was the effect was significant in terms of bank balance and confidence. The upside of this is that I’m now comfortable with the new staking- I’ve always maintained that you should stake as big as you can be comfortable with as the fixed expenses don’t change. The only problem is getting on.
3) Two children under 2. Strangely enough, these seem to take up some time and affect concentration. I think I’m getting the hang of it though as I backed a winner in-running today with the eldest on my knee!I’m still approaching the meat of the jumps season with confidence though as traditionally from Christmas to Easter has always been my best.I mean to pack in for a good length after Punchestown and might not even play on the Flat next year.
1.35 Punchestown
2 pts win Le Marquis 4/1 g gen.
Noted travelling well last day at Navan before tiring, looks to have found a weak race.
2nd 11/2 -2 pts.
Welsh National Ante Post
1.5 pts win Le Beau Bai 9/1 Paddy Power
Cost me plenty when unplaced at Cheltenham in a handicap hurdle but maintained progression over fences when winning an attritional chase over the course yesterday, enjoying the deep ground and loving every yard of the trip. The 3 week gap is perfect and heavy ground is very likely on the 27th and he’ll sneak in at the bottom of the weights. Willie Mullins pair are not certain to run in traditionally a difficult time for travelling.
3rd 9/2 -1.5 pts.Thanks, carvills. Looks like another old style punter (and I mean that in the best possible sense of the word) might be packing in the flat. Wonder if it wont become even more difficult to find value with the national hunt?
Also makes you wonder if its even worth the effort if you have to plan an operation the KGB would be proud of, to get the bet on in the first place.
Thanks, carvills. Looks like another old style punter (and I mean that in the best possible sense of the word) might be packing in the flat. Wonder if it wont become even more difficult to find value with the national hunt?
Also makes you wonder if its even worth the effort if you have to plan an operation the KGB would be proud of, to get the bet on in the first place.
Somebodys been reading too many Dick Francis books!!
Peterborough Chase Thursday
1.5 pts win Racing Demon best morning price (6/1 Ladbrokes best tonight)
Would be very well in with these on the form of his last win in this race (has won it twice). Hen Knight loves this race and will produce him cherry-ripe for this. He’s gone well fresh before.
unpl 4/1 -1.5 pts.Boylesports Gold Cup
1 pt win Chapoturgeon 13/2 Tote
I’m giving Paul Nicholls horse another chance to show that he’s a well-handicapped animal after he came down early in the Paddy Power last time. I much prefer him to Poquelin who won’t like this ground and may have been flattered to run on past beaten horses in the same race. I’d also consider a bet on Skipper’s Brig tomorrow if there were overnight rain- his record on soft or heavy is excellent.
4th 13/2 -1 pt.
1.15 Cheltenham
1 pt win Panjo Bere best morning price if 8/1 or better. 10/1 gen.
Ran above his mark at Ascot latest and will prefer more cut in the ground. Slight doubt as to suitability of the track (ran poorly in the Arkle) but odds likely to compensate.
unpl 8/1 -1 pt.
12.45 Cheltenham
1 pt win Mobaasher best morning price. 4/1 g.
Different class to these over hurdles, as long as the ground is close to good to soft must have a big chance.
3rd 9/2 -1 pt.
2.10 Doncaster
1 pt win Cast Iron Casey best am price 11/1
0.5 pt win Heathcote best am price 33/1
Cast Iron Casey ran well at Haydock 3 weeks ago. Heathcote was never going on his first run this season but would be right in this on last year’s novice form.
unpl 14/1 unpl 25/1 -1.5 pts.
2.30 Lingfield
1.5 pts win Nicto de Beauchene 11/4 Ladbrokes
Loves soft, stays well.
3rd 5/2 -1.5 pts.Paddy Power Chase Leopardstown 27th Dec
1 pt win Lochan Lacha 10-1 Ladbrokes
I have my eye on 2 or 3 for this race but the one whose price might come under pressure in the coming days is Tony Martin’s stout stayer. Ruby performed miracles to win on him over hurdles at Fairyhouse the last day and all he does is slog on at one pace- exactly what you need for this race which is usually a war of attrition.
UR 9/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Dooney’s Gate 20/1 Betfred.
Wasn’t expecting to have another bet in this so soon but this is another I’ve been watching and all the 20-1 has gone today except with baldy. This horse won over 3m on his chasing debut but has been campaigned over shorter since, running very well at Fairyhouse latest over an inadequate 2m1f. Sure to improve for the step back up in trip like most of Willie’s he has the potential to shorten a lot before the off.
unpl 4/1 -1.5 pts.Paddy Power Chase 27th Dec
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Dooney’s Gate 16/1 gen.
Nice to see this being nibbled at in the past few days and may be worth pressing up now before decs as it looks like a runner at least.
unpl 4/1 -1.5 pts.King George VI without Kuato Star
1/2 pt each way Tartak 20/1 gen. (1/4 123 Hills, others)
Might seem a bit obtuse given that he was well beaten by Deep Purple getting 10lbs in the Peterborough Chase, but there are reasons to believe that he might turn it around. He made a few blunders there in a race run at a frenetic pace, one notable one when just getting into contention which wasn’t his fault- he slipped on landing. In the circumstances it was a cracking effort to still be there at the last. I just have a feeling he is coming to his peak and even though his stamina is in doubt for this 3 miles, it might just suit him as he may have a bit more time to measure his fences. He looked a seriously good horse at Aintree last year and his early season form this could be related to the form of his stable, which is picking up now. The fact that the stable jockey deserts him for Nacarat doesn’t put me off thinking the 20-1 is too big.
unpl -1 pt.
December Festival Hurdle Leopardstown
1 pt each-way Jumbo Rio 14/1 gen, 1/5 123.
There has been money for this this morning which makes me think he’s going to run. His stable are on fire and this could well have been the plan since he ran a cracker in France. This race is often more of a test of speed around the inside track and he’d have as much speed as any of these. With one or two doubtful runners it’s worth salting away the each way now.
3rd 13/2 +1.8 pts.
Christmas Hurdle
1 pt win Starluck 7/1 Betfred (13/2 Hills)
I wouldn’t want to be taking 5/4 about Binocular after his latest flop and there must be some doubt about the value of Go Native’s win. If ever a horse was made for a sharp 2 miles around Kempton on decent ground it’s Starluck. He travels beautifully and will surely trade shorter in-running allowing backers to trade out for a profit.
2nd 10/3 -1 pt.Lexus Chase Ante Post
1 pt each way Cloudy Lane 25/1 Hills, Coral.
Doubts about a lot of the market leaders here- Cooldine first time out and stable a bit hit and miss, Note Pere coming off a terrible run and possibly needing softer, Joncol, Schindlers and Voy Por with stamina to prove. Cloudy Lane is solid over 3 miles left-handed on a track like this and is overpriced.
NR- this bet was voided by Hills 0.2.45 Limerick
1/2 pt each-way Melchizedeck 16/1 Hills
form nothing special but stable on fire and this is a poor race.
unpl 10/1 -1 pt.Arkle Trophy Ante Post
1.5 pts win Captain Cee Bee 12/1 Hills
Take Hills post-race price now as they look to have underreacted to today’s run- I think he’d have beaten the winner and he’s got the Cheltenham run in the book- I’d imagine he’ll have at most one more run before attempting his second Festival win.Dial-A-Bet Chase Sunday
1 pt each-way Forpadytheplasterer 3/1 Hills
I found it hard to split him and Tranquil Sea under today’s conditions so the difference in their prices is too large. I’m hoping the dead 8 stay in but 1/4 first 2 wouldn’t be a disaster so consistent is this horse. Tranquil might just be tapped a bit for toe at this trip on what looked decent ground today. It surely won’t be soft enough for Golden Silver and the rest don’t look good enough.
NR 0.
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