- This topic has 158 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
3.45 York
1 pt each wayHarrison George
best morning price (6/1 tonight bet 365 hard to beat)
Loves York, tremendously consistent there under his preferred conditions (good or softer) so tomorrow’s ground should be perfect. Hard not to see him involved.
unpl 4/1 -2 pts.St. Leger ante Post
1 pt each-wayFather Time
10-1 Boyles
Readers of my original thread might remember the logic that found Lucarno as the 07 Leger winner (I used to tip winners back then). Basically horses who have already run over 1m6f have a terrible record in the race, hence the earlier lay of the favourite Kite Wood. That negative also applies to another fancied runner in Changingoftheguard. Father Time looked a top prospect for the Leger until his run in the Voltigeur behind Monitor Closely but that had the look of a false result with the winner getting an easy lead and setting uneven fractions. Father Time looks bred to stay well and can turn the tables on Saturday.
4th 7/1 -2 pts.3.45 Doncaster
1 pt winDandy Man
7/2 Bet 365
Dandy Man runs better in these small field races than he does in the bigger field group races. Added to that, he had a nice confidence-boosting win at Leicester latest where he showed he can be held up and Godolphin are going well at this lower level. He can lead or stalk from his nice draw tomorrow and have enough left to win this modest race on ground that should be perfect for him.
4th 5/2 -1 pt.2.45 Curragh
1.5 pts winRoyal Rock
3/1 Ladbrokes
Goes well fresh, has coped with soft ground before.
4th 5/2 -1.5 pts.5.35 Listowel
1 pt each-wayKeelaghan
11/2 Hills
Tremendously consistent under his favoured conditions of gd/yielding or better over jumps. Ground would have been too soft the last day where he ran respectably and has a big weight pull with Meet The Parents from their earlier meeting.
4th 3/1 +.4 pt.4.55 Downpatrick 2m7f NCh
1 pt winBallylanigan
9/2 g Hills
Jumped well and was a clear second best behind the potentially useful Themoonandsixpence latest. Has plenty of fencing experience having won three points. Marhaba Millions has a poor win record and Blaze Trailer is 0/29, the rest look fairly moderate.
My only slight doubt is the ground- hoping it isn’t too fast for him.
unpl 2/1 -1 pt.2.40 Fontwell
4 pts winZabeel Palace
9/2 general
I like Barney horses in bad races off a break, if he retains any of his 90 rated flat speed he should beat these.
won 11/2 + 22 pts (guaranteed odds).
God bless you Barney!September
Staked 13.5 pts.
Profit 13 pts. (including -2 pts Golden Sword NR St. Leger)- Total Posts 17716
Nicely done, Carv, easy as you like.
I thought you’d have been on that carvs. The break was just about long enough! I wonder how many remember that the horse had shown it’s wellbeing off a break since it’s last run under rules when it bolted up the Grand National People’s race in 2008.
- Total Posts 17716
Good call, Carv – won’t see many easier winners at that kind of price.
Cheers lads- you may remember me flagging up the same beast under a dentist named Claire Tremelow or something in that very People’s Race- he won just as easily then.
4.45 Gowran Park 2m1f HCh
1 pt each-wayKeelaghan
7/2 Hills (4/1 Stan James)
Will enjoy the better ground today and wasn’t Ruby Walsh’s finest ride the last day when he gave him a lot to do behind Francis Du Mesnil. The latter is not the most consistent and may struggle to uphold the form.
won 2/1 +4.2 pts.8.30 Dundalk
1 pt each-wayFiery Lad
13/2 g Hills
There are a few doubts about Mastercraftsman tonight- will he be fully wound up ahead of his trip to the Breeder’s Cup? Will he enjoy polytrack as much as turf? Will this trip stretch his stamina? Did the Irish Champion Stakes leave a mark? All in all it’s enough to take on a 5 on shot and Fiery Lad is massively consistent over this C and D and can take advantage if the fav under performs.
2nd 9/1 +0.8 pts.8.30 Dundalk
1 pt each-wayFiery Lad
13/2 g Hills
There are a few doubts about Mastercraftsman tonight- will he be fully wound up ahead of his trip to the Breeder’s Cup? Will he enjoy polytrack as much as turf? Will this trip stretch his stamina? Did the Irish Champion Stakes leave a mark? All in all it’s enough to take on a 5 on shot and Fiery Lad is massively consitent over this C and D and can take advantage if the fav underperforms.Interesting Analogy!
Cambridgeshire Hcap Newmarket 3.40
1 pt win 1/2pt placeWannabe King
best morning price (16/1 best tonight)
This 3 yo has a very progressive profile coming into this and has a good turn of foot which makes it hard for the handicapper to get hold of him. I can’t help feeling that if he were trained by a Gosden or a Stoute he’d be favourite here.
unpl 8/1 -1.5 pts.
4.25 Gowran Park
1 pt winWar Of Attrition
9/4 g Paddy Power
Has an excellent record fresh, good ground and trip should be fine and I have doubts about Dbest over this trip- it was a soft race he won over hurdles at 2 1/2 and he strikes me as more of a pure 2 miler.
2nd 2/1 -1 pt.3.55 Tipperary
2 pts winRiver Liane
10/1 Hills or 9/1 Bet 365
The favourite Go Native is a slight doubt on fast ground and has to give away a Group 1 penalty. Raise Your Heart is a better horse on softer ground than this as is Essex, who probably needs further theses days. River Liane is right in this on his 3rd in the Irish Champion Hurdle last season and though he too might prefer more dig in the ground he looks well overpriced. It also helps that his two best performances have come off a break.
3rd 7/2 -2 pts.Breeder’s Cup Classic Ante Post
1 pt winMastercrafstman
12-1 gen.
I think it’s odds-against Sea The Stars turning up at Santa Anita- comments made by Mick Kinane after the Arc suggested he was going in his coat and might be starting to show signs of having had enough. Rip Van Winkle will take a lot of beating if he shows but he’s had training troubles all year and must also be a doubt. Mastercraftsman showed at Dundalk that the surface is no problem and he stays the trip fine so 12-1 looks on the big side especially as he’s a confirmed runner.
NR -1 pt.Breeder’s Cup Classic Ante Post
1 pt winMastercrafstman
12-1 gen.
I think it’s odds-against Sea The Stars turning up at Santa Anita- comments made by Mick Kinane after the Arc suggested he was going in his coat and might be starting to show signs of having had enough. Rip Van Winkle will take a lot of beating if he shows but he’s had training troubles all year and must also be a doubt. Mastercraftsman showed at Dundalk that the surface is no problem and he stays the trip fine so 12-1 looks on the big side especially as he’s a confirmed runner.Now your talking!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.