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I’m thinking GW is worth backing to large stakes at current prices.
His ascot run is very similar to his goodwood run last year, and any freshness should be removed after the Queen Anne. On breeding there is every reason to believe he will stay 1m2f, and how he has finished his last 2 races at a mile merely enhances this. Also, Kinane & others have been quoted as saying they believe 1m2f is no problem for GW.
Would Ballydoyle want Darley’s future flagship stallion to put GW in his place if they did not think he could win?
Regarding the ground, GW’s best performance has come on good to soft. With the ground drying out at Sandown, there is every possibility that this will be the going tomorrow, which should suit GW well.
It must be taken into account that Authorized came out of the Derby stiff, the amount the Derby takes out of a horse, and the conditioning it requires to win a G1 at 1m2f after running your previous race at a mile and a half.
Notnowcato will strongly be suited by tomorrow’s conditions and anyone who got on earlier in the week at 17’s on BF is sitting ina very good position.
I would price up the top 3 at something liek
Authorized 11/10
GW 15/8
Notnowcato 4/110f at Sandown in soft is a long 10f. If the pace is a crawl it could play into GW’s hands …if he settles…and thats a very big if
I think authorized is a superb horse but this can be a very funny race when theres a small field and i woudlnt rule out an upset
One to watch
It is hard to knock Authorized as a horse, but tomorrow is a much bigger test for him. So many 3yos who have looked exceptional against their own age group come unstuck when taking on the older horses. I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole at the price.
Is it fair to say you’d be a Jolly Layer (before the race, if not necessarily after it), tdk?
I hope Authorized is victorious on Saturday.
Even though he didn’t win a vintage renewal of the Derby, I think he’s a seriously good horse and more than has the ability to beat his elders later in the season.
My money is on Notnowcato EW. Proven at this level and a horse guaranteed to love the ground. Paddy Power has him priced up at 6/1 – excellent value whatever bet you choose.
Is it fair to say you’d be a Jolly Layer (before the race, if not necessarily after it), tdk?
LOL – yes. Happy days.
I’m on Archipenko at 25/1 earlier in the week on the assumption that he didn’t handle the hill at Epsom which is therefore not his true running. I’ll be disappointed if he is not placed at least.
I’m on Archipenko at 25/1 earlier in the week on the assumption that he didn’t handle the hill at Epsom which is therefore not his true running. I’ll be disappointed if he is not placed at least.
Good call. Even though I can’t see Authorized getting beat, I also think it will be hard to keep Archipenko out of the frame and I wish I had 25/1 each way. But still, you need one of the front 3 in the betting to under perform, and though I hope it’s not Authorized, I can see this happening.
Mike
In my opinion, Archipenko has no worthwhile form in terms of Group 1 races and is priced accordingly at 25/1. His maiden win has worked out well but is still stones away from the level required here whilst the Derrinstown looked a mess at the time and still looks to mean little in the context of a race like this.
I’ll be taking Authorized on at the odds. I quite fancy getting this one turned over.
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I cannot, for the life of me, see George Washington staying this trip, particularly with a decent pace almost certain.
OK, he was running on at Ascot, but there’s a world of difference between that steadily run fast ground 1m and today’s test. Whichever way you look at it, the horse had his chances over a sharp 10f in the Breeders Cup, and didn’t last home, nor will he today.
With him out of the way, the race should be a simple match between Authorized and Notnowcato, and a win bet on the latter, with a forecast bet A to beat N should pay much better than the actual odds of either eventuality.
Incidentally, David Johnson, it is noticeable that Ladbrokes are longest on all of the AoB horses this morning, and shortest on both Authorized and Notnowcato. Maybe they do know something?
Will be very disapointed if AUTHORIZED does not win,he gives the impression he could be one of the “Greats“, only 4 runs , open to any amount of improvement,small field with pacemaker should keep the race clean……can`t see any further!!
At this stage i will “lay“ George Washington in the place market(Started at 1,77),i can`t have him at any cost,10 Furlongs on easy ground off a strong pace and following his latest performance is enough for me,hope i can lay him to enough before he starts drifting !!
This years three year olds have had it tough against holder horses so you can see where the opposition to the fav is coming from,however,i think you simply need to look at the races these horses have competed in…theirs only one winner and if we see the jolly drift to anything over 1,7 i`ll be having a big one!!Enjoy the Race!!
Good grief Kandidate is in this! He certainly gets about this horse.
He loved his polo mints in Singapore when he was here in May and he ran a really good race on them in the Cup.
Clive Brittain isn’t ruling out him winning either – now there’s confidence for you.Really looking forward to this one. I’m afraid that conditions have gone against old George and now favour the Chapple-Hyam horse. Hopefully it’ll be close enough to tempt both parties into a rematch later in the year.
The Independent’s racing correspondent Chris McGrath is arguably the closest UK hack to Ballydoyle so his recommendation today of Admiralofthefleet at 12/1 each way is worth considering:
http://sport.independent.co.uk/general/ … 742814.ece
http://sport.independent.co.uk/general/ … 742814.eceNot a betting propositon for me but my heart goes for George who looked like he was coasting and toying with his jockey as he finished at Ascot last time. I hope his attitude is different today – I would ride him to win at the 1m mark and hope that his class carries him the final two furlongs.
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