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At the request of Carvers I have started a lays and plays to show how good or bad I am over a prolonged period
Thus, from here on in Im destined never to hit another winner because I’ll be thinking too hard about my bets but sure what the heck
Lets start off with three anteposters, obviously Im not going to mention the ones Ive already backed as the value has gone on most of the better ones, and I wouldn’t back them at their current prices:
Khyber Kim – Supreme novice – 1pt @ 12-1.
Has just been stated that he appears to be OK after his doncaster defeat (I am convinced that he wasn’t right last time and he is still the one to beat) and he is going straight to cheltenham, if he is over whatever was wrong with him.
Won In The Dark – Triumph Hurdle – 1pt e/w @ 20-1
This horse has impressed me twice this season already, In his last two runs and think he looks a proper horse. The key to him is a decent clip and in races that haven’t suited, he has acquitted himself really well to suggest that he is a very nice horse and showed very good battling qualities to run personal column close today in a race that suited personal column. The more I watch the triumph market unfold the more I think the pace will be a good one and Im sure this horse will be placed at cheltenham.
Tamimis History – Triumph Hurdle – 1/2 point e/w @ 66-1.
This horse, was a pretty decent flat performer in Ireland and performed with credit when debuting in the scottish triumph hurdle and if Nicky Richards was telling the truth that he will be out again before Cheltenham then his price will almost definitely shorten before the triumph.
Cheers David, heres the first daily bet
Wetherby – STRATH GALLANT 2pts win @ a forecast 5-1 (current betfair price of 41/10)
Just having a look at tomorrows cards and have spotted one that I’ve noticed a few times lately. A horse who was bought from dermot welds stable last year, he was entered in a class 4 on 31st Jan but was pulled and entered in a class2 at Wetherbys cancelled card last saturday in obviously a better race than this. His entries and form have suggested that he is progressing along the right lines and he is well handicapped in this race tomorrow, he has reveley and longsdons horses to get past but if his entries are anything to go by he should be up to putting in a good run and 5-1 looks a decent price.
I will be in work tomorrow, so if he is a major drifter then the above will not apply, but certainly worth a look.
Also, Mel Brittain brings a well bred filly out in the weak looking 4.35 at Wolverhampton called MOZAYADA after a 516 day layoff at a forecast 20-1, any support for that horse would be worth noting.
Both drifters, both well hammered, never ended up backing either but have put them on here so will put that in as -3 Points.
Not a great start but not overly downhearted…
-3 points
Cheers marb!
Carvs is a very good tipster though, if I can even nearly match him then Im doing very well, I see myself as more of an information processor and a value hunting chance taker than a tipster.
I tend to take in loads of information and notice things that stand out as being odd or which may possibly mean something, i also have a lot of other methods which have been developed on the flat (and generally work better there).
I’ve been doing quite well lately though by just doing what Im doing, just a balance of loads of diffent picking methods and it will be interesting to see if I can keep it up. Ive clearly got my work cut out though. … Newcastle 140 – JAMESTOWN BAY 1pt e/w @ RPf/c 16-1
Im thinking (may not turn out that way) that with a few decent enough bumper horses in there, noble alan expected to go well and Ignotus stepping back down in distance, that there may be a bit of a competitive pace on.
If indeed this is the case then this would not play to the strengths of Best Prospect and Mutawaffer, and i’d be tempted by a nice priced e/w on Jamestown Bay at the forecast 16-1 as he should be on the premises.
Folkestone 200 – PASCHA BERE 1pt e/w @ RPf/c 10-1
Also 1/2 pt rev f/c Nos 1+8
I really like I have dreamed for this race, and think he is the likely winner, but also like this horse at an e/w price and think he could go well. He’s quite nicely bred for distance and ground and am hoping he’ll go we’ll.
At least today has been a better day
–Newcastle 140 – JAMESTOWN BAY 1pt e/w @ RPf/c 16-1 = CHINNED -2pts
Folkestone 200 – PASCHA BERE 1pt e/w @ RPf/c 10-1
Also 1/2 pt rev f/c Nos 1+8
I really like I have dreamed for this race, and think he is the likely winner, but also like this horse at an e/w price and think he could go well. He’s quite nicely bred for distance and ground and am hoping he’ll go we’ll.
Pascha Bere returned at 11-1 1pt e/w = 15.2 pts
1/2 pt rev f/c 1 + 8 @ 27.65 = 13.825 points
-8 points bet in total (including yesterdays loss of 3)
15.2 + 13.825 -8 = 21.025
+21.05 pts
A nice result, thats horse racing one day you can’t hit a 5-1, the next day its 27.65 forcasts, lets hope I can keep it up, happy with that though.
Fairyhouse 145 –
FARINELLI 2pts win @ RP Forecast of 9/2 (currently 9/2 on betfair)
CASTARA BAY 1pt e/w @ RP Forecast of 20-1 (currently 25-2 on betfair)
Farrinelli looks really nicely bred (very similar to Sublimty), and his flat form looks a good pre-requisite for how I expect this race to be run (slower than standard), should handle the ground and would hope he goes well.
Castara Bay is also well bred, handled the surface and would hope is capable of putting in a good run on if making the transition to hurdles, worth a go e/w if at 20s.
Musselburgh 350 –
VALAIN 2 pts win at RP forecast 5-1 (currently 28-5 on betfair)
I like halla san but think that if the ground is good and the field is not huge then there is a good chance of a slower pace and if so it may prove too sharp for halla san, and would hope Valain will go well, as is smartly bred and should handle a moderate pace, on this ground at this distance.
FARINELLI 2PTS @ 9/2 – BEATEN
CASTARA BAY 1PT E/W @ 20-1 – N/R MONEY BACK
VALAIN – 2PTS WIN @ 11/2 SP – 2ND (BEATEN)
-4POINTS
Was right about valain and halla san being best but had hoped valain could outspeed him, faranelli ran very poorly, down four points for the day but still have a nice enough profit.
Current Profit = +17.025pts
After Masterminded last week, I see another straight blue line through Carl Llewellyn’s HARRYCONE LEWIS in the Market for this race on oddschecker.
Hes well weighted, looks like he may have targetted this race and his market support seems to indicate that he’s at least fancied for a place.
Just backed him a similar sort of bet again £10 e/w £20 win at ladbrokes 20-1.
HARRYCONE LEWIS 1 pt e/w 2 pts win @ 20-1
Sandown 345
Like the look of Night Cru @ 9-1 in this race, had some decent form on the flat and a slow pace should see him thereabouts.
Sandown 345 – Night Cru 1pt e/w, .525pts win @ 9-1(ladbrokes)
Cheers N.V.
Sandown 345 – Night Cru 1pt e/w, .525pts win @ 9-1(ladbrokes) Beaten
Thats me back to a nice round number 15, looking at the result I think theres been a decent pace, which was hoping wouldnt be the case.
+15 points
Just lost my picks again whenlogged out,
They were,
Lingfield 505 – Calthedral Walk 1pt e/w, 1pt win @ 14-1
Haydock 210 – Raslan 1pt e/w @ 33-1, Gunner Jack 1pt e/w 14-1
Haydock 105 – No refuge 1pt e/w @ 10-1
Ascot 150 – Pace Shot 1pt e/w @ 12-1
Ascot 300 – Lyceum – 3 pts @ 9/4
Ascot 335 – Zahras Place 1/2pt e/w @ 50-1
… 
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