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Draw for post positions –
One draw for St Nicholas Abbey
Sarafina in two, Sea Moon out of three, Await The Dawn is in six and Midday will trap from Nine.
Only 2 days away from this top event and not a poster in sight
I’m confused. Await the Dawn’s beating of Harris Tweed barely suggests he’s good enough to come here let alone win. He was thrashed by Twice Over yet the best price is around 5/1? Strange!!
Sarafini was a false fav for the Arc based on a would be unlucky run at the end of the previous years race. Some imaginations went wild on that one. She’s very good but had too long a season for me.
Sea Moon "could be the best I’ve ever trained" said SMS. Only problem with that is the great man was holding a crystal ball and probably looking to next season when he said it.
Midday is an amazing horse on her day. Many thought Sir Henry should have run her in last year’s Arc when she was in her prime. Could be considered unlucky here last year but her form this year suggests she’s not as good as she was.
St Nicholas Abbey is a cracking horse but lacks the finishing kick to win in top class company. That said this isn’t top top class so he could well win it but I have my doubts.
I’m going with Sea Moon who may have progressed enough since the St leger to prove he has a huge future ahead of him as his trainer suggests.
The race shouldn’t take too much winning and he’s worth the risk.
Sea Moon
Cross out the coolmore runners, Midday doesn’t stay the trip, nor seems to defeat the colts. Sarafina/Sea Moon forecast for me.
I’m in the Sea Moon camp, a repeat of his Voltigeur run would be enough, was unlucky in Ledger and should have improved again.
Enough question marks about the others, Await The Dawn 5/1 seems extremely short?!
Sea Moon 4/1.
I’m saddened by the poor quality of the American runners in the race this year. Too bad Acclamation is done for the year.
The wiseguys are all on Midday.
Cross out the coolmore runners, Midday doesn’t stay the trip, nor seems to defeat the colts. Sarafina/Sea Moon forecast for me.
Midday not stay 12f?! Is this the same Midday that won the Group 1 Prix Vermeille over 12f (beating Sarafina among other good horses). Or is this the same Midday than won the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks over 12f beating Snow Fairy by three lengths? You know, the Snow Fairy that stays 12f so well she won the English and Irish Oaks and finished third in the Arc. Midday stays 12f. She also has speed enough to outsprint them at the finish as long as she gets a good run through the traffic.
If Stoutey thinks Sea Moon could be the best he has ever trained, he might as well hand his training establishment over to Clive Brittain right now.
I think he could run well but he really needs cut in the ground imo.I like the look of Sarafina for this one.
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Totally agree with MV – if Midday doesn’t stay this sharp 12f, I’ll eat my hat.
Would’ve won last year over a furlong shorter except the early pace didn’t make it a sufficient test.Midday’s poor record against the colts is the worry for me not the trip, forgetting the betting side of things I’d love to see her win but think she might find 1 or 2 too good.
Midday’s poor record against the colts is the worry for me not the trip, forgetting the betting side of things I’d love to see her win but think she might find 1 or 2 too good.
Hello, it’s me again, Midday’s defender.
I am not sure where Midday got the reputation for performing poorly against colts. Did someone whisper the rumour in a pub? She was beaten a length by St Nicholas Abbey over 12f, and by two and a half lengths by So You Think over 10f (his best distance), but beat Nathaniel, Ransom Note,Twice Over and Casamento; the last three by significant margins. I do not understand how that can be called “poor form against the colts”. In the last two and a half years she has finished behind only three colts, all multiple Group 1 winners. Perhaps you had some other lines of form in mind to support your view?
I wouldn’t say Midday has performed poorly against colts, just that she doesn’t appear able to win against them. As admirable as she has been, it shows a limitation. In truth, she was inferior to Sariska in ability but clearly has a better constitution. Her level of form is high and consistent, but not quite good enough to win.
If she had run in the Arc, on form you would have placed her behind St Nicholas Abbey and Sarafina on a line through So You Think, therefore she either needs to improve or hope both of those perform under par.Ok ok, 12furlongs isn’t her OPTIMUM trip. I can’t remember her winning over a mile and a half against colts.
I wouldn’t say Midday has performed poorly against colts, just that she doesn’t appear able to win against them. As admirable as she has been, it shows a limitation. In truth, she was inferior to Sariska in ability but clearly has a better constitution. Her level of form is high and consistent, but not quite good enough to win.
If she had run in the Arc, on form you would have placed her behind St Nicholas Abbey and Sarafina on a line through So You Think, therefore she either needs to improve or hope both of those perform under par.With Silver Pond finishing within a length and a half of Shareta, Snow Fairy, So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey, Meandre and Sarafina, I cannot, yet, bring myself to believe that the Arc form is rock solid. If Silver Pond and Shareta show in their next runs that the Arc was like a new beginning for them as top class horses, then the form will indeed read very well.
Until then I’ll just keep to the direct comparisons. Midday beat Sarafina by just over one length in their only head to head. She lost by a length to St Nicholas Abbey, whilst looking as though she made her effort too soon. By that standard, she has a decent chance on a track that will suit.
If you take So You Think’s Arc form at face value, then he doesn’t look to hot for the Classic. I think he is better than that run suggests.
Midday’s poor record against the colts is the worry for me not the trip, forgetting the betting side of things I’d love to see her win but think she might find 1 or 2 too good.
Hello, it’s me again, Midday’s defender.
I am not sure where Midday got the reputation for performing poorly against colts. Did someone whisper the rumour in a pub? She was beaten a length by St Nicholas Abbey over 12f, and by two and a half lengths by So You Think over 10f (his best distance), but beat Nathaniel, Ransom Note,Twice Over and Casamento; the last three by significant margins. I do not understand how that can be called “poor form against the colts”. In the last two and a half years she has finished behind only three colts, all multiple Group 1 winners. Perhaps you had some other lines of form in mind to support your view?
She has finished in front of some very good colts as you rightly point out but it is a fact that she has never finished first past the post in anything other than races involving her own sex.
This may just be a statiscal anomially and may be put to bed once and for all tomorrow but it’s more than a pub whisper imo and is enough to put me off backing her but if my selection doesn’t win (Sea Moon) I certainly hope she does.
With Silver Pond finishing within a length and a half of Shareta, Snow Fairy, So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey, Meandre and Sarafina, I cannot, yet, bring myself to believe that the Arc form is rock solid. If Silver Pond and Shareta show in their next runs that the Arc was like a new beginning for them as top class horses, then the form will indeed read very well.
Reading form statically is dangerous when track biases and pace is taken into account. So You Think finished harder than anything bar the winner, Shareta and St Nicholas Abbey were handy and finished with the principals, while the other horse who got a good run near the leaders Danedream kicked away.
Take the relatively steady pace and the fact that it was hard to make ground into account and So You Think comes out the second best horse in the race to Danedream, a cut above Snow Fairy, Silver Pond, and others (Sarafina suffered a wide run which likely blunted her finish).Silver Pond still performed with credit, but he’s shown ability by beating Behkabad earlier this year. He was then a tad disappointing behind Sarafina and Cirrus Des Aigles, and was then freshened up, running flat behind Cirrus first-up and then running that good race in the Arc.
According to Oddschecker, Ladbrokes offering the best (3) or joint best (1) prices about the European horses except Sarafina. A statement of intent that does make the 3/1 @ William Hills interesting. Having said that they both made My Miss Aurelia 3/1 yesterday so they dont always get it right.
I think he could run well but he really needs cut in the ground imo.
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