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Just thought I’d bring to the attention of forumites that there is a very interesting book just out titled "Bioenergetics and Racehorse Ratings". It is written by Bob Wilkins, an engineer and former university lecturer, and published by Overdee Press (<!– m –>http://www.overdee.com<!– m –>).
In it, Wilkins tackles some of the toughest problems in horseracing analysis, including what a length is worth under different circumstances and the effect of body weight on performance, and he comes up with some convincing answers. There is also a section on how to apply these findings to rating horses by form and by time in a radical manner.
Don’t be put off by what is quite heavy applied maths in places. Wilkins writes clearly and well, and it is possible to follow his arguments without understanding all of his methods.
It is the most important book to have been written on the subject, imo.
Thanks, looks like an interesting read. Although now its in the public domain it’ll soon be appearing on Betfair.
Thank’s for info Prufrock.
Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
Aah! I wonder if he’ll touch on a theory of mine.
My theory being that the average size/weight horse, for arguments sake, has it’s optimum weight carrying threshold before it chucks in a performance way inferior to it’s rating. The straw that breaks the camels back, so to speak.
Bigger horses
should
be able to carry a bigger burden, but every person/horse has its limits before it just gets us down, right?
It
is
late, mind.
Cheers for the heads up on this Prufrock. Despatch and delivery on said product is extremely efficient so if you were thinking of getting it but were put off by that, don’t be.
Haven’t had a good read of it yet, it doesn’t look like bed-time reading, but looking forward to having a read of it when I get some spare time.
Very, very interesting. I remember being introduced to these same topics almost 9 years ago by someone with a very similar bio – different name though. In fact, that bio is pretty much on the mark; makes me think I was being given the run-around
Anyway, order has been placed and looking forward to reading about it. If it is who it think it is, this should be a very high quality book.
It sounds interesting, I may well buy it. How would we apply the information in British racing though when size and weight of the horses are not published?
It is possible to make reasonable estimates from average values, much like you might make reasonable estimates for a horse’s maturity for weight-for-age purposes. The horse’s body weight is only one part of the equation in any case. I pointed out to the author that data from Hong Kong (where they do weigh horses) suggests a value slightly below what he used, but it makes little odds in reality.
The important findings concern pounds per second (he makes one of his few mistakes by converting that into pounds per length) and how different conditions affect that, plus arguably the "power rating" method he explains later in the book.
That sounds a bit complicated Prufrock, will a non mathematician like me be able to work this out?
That sounds a bit complicated Prufrock, will a non mathematician like me be able to work this out?
Well, I am not a mathematician, and had not done this sort of thing since school. While some of the equations were a bit beyond me, I was more interested in the author’s line of reasoning and some of his conclusions.
If anyone can drop the all-important Equation 19 into Excel for me I would be eternally grateful.
Are you sure this guy has no Sleepy Hollow connections? For a man working from first principles, it was depressing to see that some of his pronouncements appeared to be lifted directly from The Tablets.
I wonder how Dr Wilkins would have approached today’s 4.20 at Kempton.
In the messy world of horse racing this was about as close to the experimental design as you could get:
1) Both horses had the same days since last run
2) Both horses had the same jockey as last time
3) Both were mature horses with very similar profiles – third run back after six months off, with similar lifetime starts
4) Both horses were trained by the same trainer
5) Both horses had run over the same C&D last time, where they appeared to put in their best performance in racent history
6) Both horses ran in the same race last time
7) The draw could reasonably be considered to be largely irrelevant
One horse carried 6lb more today for finishing 1/2l and a head superior to the horse that carried 4lb more today.You would have thought that they would be very similar prices, and you would have been half right. They
were
very similar prices until the betting began in earnest. They finished up at under 4/1 and over 16/1 respectively.
No prizes for guessing which one got infintely more smacks with the whip.
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