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Have to agree with some on here that the decision to run Dawn Approach in derby was wrong..On breeding there was an argument to say hel stay..however old Jim Bolger assured everybody that the horse was better than ever he was very relaxed at home and had no concerns whatsoever about the derby trip…This was nonsense we saw a great horse look very very poor…he never handled any turn he was pulling everywhere..I thought is this really the same horse Jim Bolger said was relaxed fast comfortable at home with no concerns atall…consequently when back to a straight mile at Ascot he ran brilliantly to bt Toronado…and what did Sheikh Mohammed say…To take no risk is the biggest risk of all………..that explains a lot!
Being wrong ONCE does not mean you will always be wrong. 1 from 2 is not a worthwhile statistic either way as you well know.
From the verystart
of his career Dawn Approach looked
sharper
than his sire. He made his debut in March over
5f
compared to his father who didn’t appear until July and who made his first three starts on heavy/soft over 7f. I always worried about that that fact with regards to Epsom for Dawn Approach and said I would eat my hat if he won. If you read back through the Derby thread(s) you will note that I felt that Dawn Approach wouldn’t settle at Epsom and so it proved.
believing
he wouldn’t stay is totally different to believing he should
not
have been given the opportunity of running.
Mill Reef won his first race at5f
too, the Salisbury Stakes at… (well, guess). Like Dawn Approach, going on to win the Coventry and Dewhurst by 6 lengths and 4 respectively. Looking far more speedy/"sharper"/precocious than DA ever did. In between, he won the Gimcrack at 6f by 10 lengths from the following year’s Champion sprinter Green God…
Mill Reef could have been rank in the Derby Steve, just like Dawn Approach, but instead – won in tremendous style. Why shouldn’t Dawn Approach have had the opportunity of emulating Mill Reef at Epsom?Do you believe Mill Reef should not have run at Epsom Steve?
It does not matter what they do in March as a two year old. If they settle reasonably well in May of their three year old year and have at least some breeding to suggest they might stay 1m4f – then imo they deserve to run at Epsom.
They are father and son and but they are different horses who took to their careers in a different manner. I didn’t think Dawn Approach would have been as bad as he was at Epsom but was alive to avoiding the usual childlike belief that the magic stamina beans would be fed to him the night before the Derby. REAL stats show that few colts win both races but that won’t stop Toormore going off short for Epsom after he hoses up from War Command at Newmarket, with Kingman the usual Gosden Non-runner with the "Race coming too early for him" excuse.
Yes, they need stamina aswell. But DA was by a Derby winner, so to say he had no stamina in the pedigree would be wrong. There’s even some elements of stamina in the dams family.Value Is EverythingIsn’t hindsight a wonderful thing? Most of us would be millionaires betting with the benefit of it.
It’s not often Gingertipster is right
but he is here. If it was such a bad decision letting Dawn Approach run in the Derby how come he started at a shorter price than he did when he won the Guineas?Shouldn’t the critics have all been laying him till the cows came home?
Yes, they need stamina aswell. But DA was by a Derby winner, so to say he had no stamina in the pedigree would be wrong. There’s even some elements of stamina in the dams family.[/color]
Ginger, I don’t have time for all this bit by bit picking apart of every little part of a post. The fancy colours don’t help make your point either.
I have seen so many of your style of poster on forums and the inevitably think that more words and highlighting in colours somehow makes their argument better. They are inevitably all the same type of people who HAVE to have the last word and who concede NOTHING to the other party in real terms of the argument. I’m sorry but it’s too tedious and predictable for me.
Eddie Case ponders why Dawn Approach was so short for the Derby compared to the Guineas and the answer is simple. The average punter’s head buttons up the back and they cling to the "If he stays, he wins mantra"
I looked beyond Dawn Approach this year and I normally oppose the Derby Favourite, particularly when he is short. This year I was correct with Ruler of The World at 25/1 and a cheeky each-way on Galileo Rock at 66/1. It doesn’t always work that way of course but I can bet on a good few Derbies now and afford to take on the Fav again.
The gist of your argument would suggest that you believe that every Guineas winner should try their hand in the Derby. I believe that it is a case of judging each horse by his profile before deciding that. Camelot and Seas The Stars won their Guineas’ in different fashion to Dawn Approach and were both Derby candidates first and foremost going into the race, whereas Dawn Approach was not even entered in the Derby.
I have made my thinking on the matter as clear as I can and the one meaningful stat in all of this is that most 2000 Guineas winners don’t win the Derby. For all the excuses that were made for Dawn Approach the fact is that, as efforts to win a Derby go his was an ultimately pathetic attempt and he ended the season looking decidedly average.
I leave you to have the inevitable last word.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing? Most of us would be millionaires betting with the benefit of it.
Like eddie says Hindsight is a wonderful thing and on the face of it the ‘Biggest Training error of the year’ has to go to
Godolphins decision to run Dawn Approach in the Derby
.Everyone of us has fallen for the ‘If the sires Won the Derby then so can his progeny’,trouble here is the Dam ‘Hymn of the Dawn’just didn’t encourage that idea at all, whereas ‘New Approach’s Dam ‘Park Express’ was a proper 11/2m filly so confidence was high he’d stay.We never did get to find out if ‘Dawn approach’ got the trip as his Derby was a complete Non-event but again hindsight certainly tells me with his style of running he’d have struggled.For one who saw the talent of this big chestnut very early on in his career I have to say Luck was on my side in the 2000gns,I turned up for the race at the 11th hour as I genuinely felt ‘Toronado’ was going to ruin my day/month/year,thankfully the result went the right way,later results proved the real ‘Toronado’ could have hurt me big time.
It has to be said that connections of ‘Toronado’ were shouting Derby horse way before his 3yo campaign started so they too were wrong about their charge…….Bloody flat racing!Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing? Most of us would be millionaires betting with the benefit of it.
Like eddie says Hindsight is a wonderful thing and on the face of it the ‘Biggest Training error of the year’ has to go to
Godolphins decision to run Dawn Approach in the Derby
.Everyone of us has fallen for the ‘If the sires Won the Derby then so can his progeny’,trouble here is the Dam ‘Hymn of the Dawn’just didn’t encourage that idea at all, whereas ‘New Approach’s Dam ‘Park Express’ was a proper 11/2m filly so confidence was high he’d stay.We never did get to find out if ‘Dawn approach’ got the trip as his Derby was a complete Non-event but again hindsight certainly tells me with his style of running he’d have struggled.For one who saw the talent of this big chestnut very early on in his career I have to say Luck was on my side in the 2000gns,I turned up for the race at the 11th hour as I genuinely felt ‘Toronado’ was going to ruin my day/month/year,thankfully the result went the right way,later results proved the real ‘Toronado’ could have hurt me big time.
It has to be said that connections of ‘Toronado’ were shouting Derby horse way before his 3yo campaign started so they too were wrong about their charge…….Bloody flat racing!Biggest Training error has to go to "Didnt look like a good idea at the start, didnt work out" situation and its codswallop to suggest that most people were certain DA wouldn’t stay. Didnt do him any harm anyway.
Only for Camelot dropped out, Magician wouldn’t have run in the Breeders cup. Being out a sprinter and very closely related to a horse who never went beyond a mile didnt stop him.
As ive said, i dont like criticising Trainers who are willing to give it a go. It adds to the event. However, surely sending Olympic Glory to the Breeders Cup was strange. People (like Nathan I think) place laid him even though it wasnt a strong event
SHL
Yes, they need stamina aswell. But DA was by a Derby winner, so to say he had no stamina in the pedigree would be wrong. There’s even some elements of stamina in the dams family.[/color]
Ginger, I don’t have time for all this bit by bit picking apart of every little part of a post. The fancy colours don’t help make your point either.
I have seen so many of your style of poster on forums and the inevitably think that more words and highlighting in colours somehow makes their argument better. They are inevitably all the same type of people who HAVE to have the last word and who concede NOTHING to the other party in real terms of the argument. I’m sorry but it’s too tedious and predictable for me.
Oh ffs Steve,
I don’t want to use another colour. Your posts are so long, if I respond to the whole thing at the bottom of your post – then nobody knows which part I am responding to. Which is why it is easier to understand if I quote your whole post, putting my opinion below each relevent section using another colour. TRFers have done the same to me in the past. It’s only one colour, not a rainbow. If I used the same colour as you then your opinion would be confused with mine, and you wouldn’t like that either. Are you really finding fault with me using one different colour?I do not mean to "pick apart" your post Steve, wish you’d see it as
giving reasoning to my point of view
. I’m only disagreeing with your opinion of whether Dawn Approach should have run in the Derby! Nothing more.
I could easily say the same about you "picking apart" my posts sometimes, but this is a discussion forum, disagreeing is all part of it.Once again Steve, you start on a personal "your style of poster…", why? When all I’ve done is to disagree with you about a horse!
You’re obviously taking offense whenever I disagree with your own idea of things. Wish you’d get off your high horse and discuss a subject without this "I know best and don’t dare disagree". No? Sorry, won’t say any more on Dawn Approach then. Of course, if a person really wants to have the last word on a subject… The easiest way is to state his opinion (again) and then accuse the other person of wanting the last word. 
Value Is EverythingAs ive said, i dont like criticising Trainers who are willing to give it a go. It adds to the event. However, surely sending Olympic Glory to the Breeders Cup was strange. People (like Nathan I think) place laid him even though it wasnt a strong event
It was Peruvian Chief that place laid him, I just agreed and gave another good reason to go against him. I think the trainer wanted to run Toronado but the horse wasn’t ready and big money owner wanted a runner, a similar situation could arise for Dubai World Cup night.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing? Most of us would be millionaires betting with the benefit of it.
Like eddie says Hindsight is a wonderful thing and on the face of it the ‘Biggest Training error of the year’ has to go to
Godolphins decision to run Dawn Approach in the Derby
.Everyone of us has fallen for the ‘If the sires Won the Derby then so can his progeny’,trouble here is the Dam ‘Hymn of the Dawn’just didn’t encourage that idea at all, whereas ‘New Approach’s Dam ‘Park Express’ was a proper 11/2m filly so confidence was high he’d stay.We never did get to find out if ‘Dawn approach’ got the trip as his Derby was a complete Non-event but again hindsight certainly tells me with his style of running he’d have struggled.For one who saw the talent of this big chestnut very early on in his career I have to say Luck was on my side in the 2000gns,I turned up for the race at the 11th hour as I genuinely felt ‘Toronado’ was going to ruin my day/month/year,thankfully the result went the right way,later results proved the real ‘Toronado’ could have hurt me big time.
It has to be said that connections of ‘Toronado’ were shouting Derby horse way before his 3yo campaign started so they too were wrong about their charge…….Bloody flat racing!Biggest Training error has to go to "Didnt look like a good idea at the start, didnt work out" situation and its codswallop to suggest that most people were certain DA wouldn’t stay. Didnt do him any harm anyway.
Only for Camelot dropped out, Magician wouldn’t have run in the Breeders cup. Being out a sprinter and very closely related to a horse who never went beyond a mile didnt stop him.
As ive said, i dont like criticising Trainers who are willing to give it a go. It adds to the event. However, surely sending Olympic Glory to the Breeders Cup was strange. People (like Nathan I think) place laid him even though it wasnt a strong event
Hindsight is a wonderful thing indeed but we can do our best to try to predict what may happen beforehand in order to decide where we place our cash. I am not after-timing in criticising the decision to run Dawn Approach in the Derby and I wrote the section in bold below on the 23rd of May in the Derby thread of the forum:-
Looking at his sire’s career the profile is very similar apart from the fact that New Approach never ran over less than 7 furlongs at two, usually on softish ground. He wasn’t able to win the Guineas but didn’t fail by much. Going forward I didn’t think he would get the trip at Epsom but he got the job done beating Tartan Bearer although he did wander about in front. It surely isn’t coincidence that he never ran over the trip again and I feel that he might well have struggled to get home on a more galloping track.
Moving to Dawn Approach, he looks sharper than his father and I just don’t think he runs like a stayer. I like a horse who can travel economically and relaxed before lengthening stride, rather than quickening. The way Dawn Approach moves looks like it would be hard to settle him in and I have reservations about how he will cope at Epsom.
He is a red hot favourite but I think there are enough doubts to leave him well alone and have a punt on something at much bigger odds.
If Dawn Approach had always had the Derby as his target I would have said fair play to them in having a go but he was not considered a likely sort from an early stage and was not even entered in the race. Jim Bolger doesn’t have the final say, so I suppose it is harsh in calling it a "training error" when the trainer has to play politics with a very wealthy and influential owner. Jim Bolger made the "Pressure from where?" statement when asked if he been put under any pressure. We may not have been told from where the pressure came but we can be sure it WAS there, and we can be equally sure that the pressure was being felt somewhere between Jim Bolger’s left buttock and his right buttock.
People may say that running in the Derby didn’t do the horse any harm but the memory of his performance in the race is hard to shake. It is true that he bounced back shorty afterwards but I thought he was beaten that day and he only got home by a gnat’s knacker before going on to three successive defeats being beaten by more than fourteen lengths in total.
Was the 2000 Guineas a great race? I would say no but you can argue that Dawn Approach looked something special that day. I don’t think you can say that about any of his races thereafter and he is not being allotted a slot in my shelf of the Racing Greats.
Regarding Magician, I wouldn’t take his win in the Breeders Cup as proving he stays a mile and a half. That track and conditions would have allowed Ballyregan Bob to win that one!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Oh sorry, I thought the "I leave you to have the inevitable last word" meant you were not going to say anything else on the subject Steve. Fair enough, if you want to carry on…
As I said earlier, some thought the horse would stay before the Derby, some thought he would not stay. It’s totally different to thinking the horse should
not run
. Yes Steve, you deserve credit for THINKING beforehand the horse won’t stay…
But at
NO point
does it say you thought the horse had
so little
chance of staying that connections were
idiots for running
.
THAT
is the whole point of the "HINDSIGHT" arguement.
People have gone from
thinking
BEFORE the Derby the horse would not stay and worth opposing at the odds – to (because of hindsight) AFTERWARDS thinking the horse should
not have run at all
and connections were idiots to do so.
I am often of the opinion a horse won’t stay the trip, but rarely do I believe they’ve got so little chance they should not run.
Hoerses are odds-on for a reason Steve.
If DA had so little chance of staying the trip before the race – then there is NO WAY knowledgeable punters would’ve allowed him to start that short. Therefore, if a horse has a good chance of winning the best 3 year old race in the World – it should surely run?Value Is EverythingOh sorry, I thought the "I leave you to have the inevitable last word" meant you were not going to say anything else on the subject Steve.
Just to clarify. I meant that I had finished talking to YOU on the subject and let you have the "last word" as you, of course, did.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Like Mill Reef, Red Rum won over 5f. Perhaps Jim should run DA in the National hey Ginge?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Like Mill Reef, Red Rum won over 5f. Perhaps Jim should run DA in the National hey Ginge?
No Joni.
Dawn Approach, Mill Reef and Red Rum’s 5f races came well back in their careers. Don’t know about the latter, but the other two’s 5f starts came at the very begining of their careers. Horses mature and distance requirements change. Just goes to show it is foolish to dismiss a horse over any distance just because it started life many moons ago over the minimum trip. Indeed fortunate Ginger McCain did not have such a short sighted view.Any horse’s stamina credentials should be seen primarily by its recent starts. Our beloved Frankel for example, showed enthusiastic tendencies at two of wanting to get on with things. Had he learnt to settle in the Greenham there may even have been a chance of running in the Derby. But did not even like his pacemaker being in front. Then in the Guineas, apart from only the first couple of strides Queally did not do a thing to encourage Frankel, just wanted to go! So on what would’ve been his run before Epsom – did far too much at a mile, let alone a mile and a half. At that point in his career would’ve done better going back in trip rather than forward. It wasn’t until his fourth year Frankel’s enthusiasm could be harnessed enough to go up a couple of furlongs, and even then it is obvious they had to teach the horse to fall out of the stalls to do so, losing lengths at the start – just to get behind horses in order to settle.
Red Rum showed more and more stamina as he got older. Of course it is not ideal judging a horse’s stamina on a race of only two thirds the Epsom Classic distance. As said, I do not have any problem with anyone who thought Dawn Approach would not stay. Of course some opponents were bound to improve, but he had by far the best form in the race and had a good chance of winning, whether that be 50%, 40% or 33%. Therefore, imo connections would’ve got more stick on this thread had they not run in the Derby.
Value Is EverythingI disagree Ginge but you and I have batted this back and forth and I know you will never agree. I can see your point mate. He was a good Guineas winner, his dad had won the race despite suspect stamina (surely a factor in Jim’s decision) and it was a poor quality race.
Here’s the thing though Ginge that you have to remember if you don’t want to continually p1ss everyone on this site off – there is another school of thought! And it is just as logical and carries just as much evidence as your does. Try to see it.
At the end of the day all we know for sure is that hindsight showed it to be a poor decision and I am glad the consensus on here can see that. He was not his father. They had different influences on the dam side. His trainer had not thought to enter him because he didn’t believe he would stay. His new owner thought it was worth a try and so they gave it a go. Good on them for trying many will say. Ruined a decent horse others might argue.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I disagree Ginge but you and I have batted this back and forth and I know you will never agree. I can see your point mate. He was a good Guineas winner, his dad had won the race despite suspect stamina (surely a factor in Jim’s decision) and it was a poor quality race.
Here’s the thing though Ginge that you have to remember if you don’t want to continually p1ss everyone on this site off – there is another school of thought! And it is just as logical and carries just as much evidence as your does. Try to see it.
At the end of the day all we know for sure is that hindsight showed it to be a poor decision
and I am glad the consensus on here can see that. He was not his father. They had different influences on the dam side. His trainer had not thought to enter him because he didn’t believe he would stay. His new owner thought it was worth a try and so they gave it a go. Good on them for trying many will say.
Ruined a decent horse
others might argue.
Those who believe Dawn Approach was
"ruined"
are probably guilty of exaggerating the horse’s earlier form. 5 length win in a 2000 Guineas may sound exceptional and because of the name of the race and winning distance – some will always consider it considerably better than what came afterwards. They may also have been disappointed, hoping for another Frankel. Truth is, next two home Glory Awaits and Van Der Neer mean although Dawn Approach is well up to standard for a Guineas – the rest were below standard/did not run to form. ie If it would’ve been an average field you could fit
a few horses in (those 5 lengths) between
the winner and Glory Awaits. Bearing that in mind…
This
"ruined" racehorse
came out shortly after the Derby and won the St James’s Palace stakes with a very similar display (in form terms) to the 2000 Guineas. Beating Glory Awaits by further (though may be latter a little below Newmarket). This time there were plenty of horses running to form/improving in between the two old rivals. Dawn Approach just hanging on from an improved Toronado.
Punters are often guilty of believing a win (let alone a 5 length win) must be a better form/performance than a placed run. It may be suprising to some, but the very best Timeform performance rating Dawn Approach put up in his whole career was the Sussex Stakes 2nd! Toronado the winner by 1/2 a length. But the form book says Dawn Approach was a 2 3/4 lengths better racehorse than Declaration Of War. Latter went on to finish around 2 lengths behind Moonlight Cloud and Olympic Glory, before winning the International and close third in Breeders Cup Classic. Declaration Of War is one of the most consistant horses in training and there’s every reason to believe the Coolmore horse ran somewhere near his best at Goodwood.
Yes, it’s a shame Dawn Approach finished with two poor performances. But the Marois came (in hindsight) too soon after the Sussex and QEII on the softest ground he’d run on – so valid excuses.
Take a look at the title of this thread Joni,
"Biggest training error of the year"
. HOW can a trainer’s decision be criticised to such an extent as to be the "
biggest
training
error
of the
year
", if the biggest part of reasoning for that position is
HINDSIGHT
?
Unfortunately, trainers can
not
use "hindsight" to make their
decision to run or not
.
Sorry I p!ss you or anyone else off Joni. But what p!sses me off is TRFers using something not available to the trainer
at the time
(hindsight) – to come to a statement that running a horse was the biggest error made by any trainer all year, or indeed that connections "ruined a decent horse".
Will continue to defend people/decisions I believe have been unfairly criticised Joni, whether that p!sses TRFers off or not. Realise it won’t be a popular thing to do, but never been that anyway, never will and never want to be.
The End
Value Is EverythingI agree with GT. I wonder if all you after-timers were begging, borrowing and stealing everything you could get your hands on and laying DA at Epsom?
but he is here. If it was such a bad decision letting Dawn Approach run in the Derby how come he started at a shorter price than he did when he won the Guineas?
I could easily say the same about you "picking apart" my posts sometimes, but this is a discussion forum, disagreeing is all part of it.
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