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Thinking of reinstating my average tipping thread at the back end of last year which ultimately only just broke even, but this time with a catchy title (play on words with a certain Gold Cup hero
)Today’s Selection
Wolverhampton 5.20Dzesmin currently 6/1 with b365
The very versatile ex Polish Derby winner enjoyed a good stint over hurdles in 2008 winning twice, but had a moderate return to the flat last Spring, including a poor effort at Southwell in March when favourite. Nevertheless being a ratings man the thing that catches my eye today is his very lenient AW mark of 66, 7lb lower than his previous try. Hasn’t run since June but expected to be tuned up by Fahey who is more than able at getting one ready at home (although recent stable form is a concern), and in a race where only the in-form Chalice Welcome is an obvious danger, he can take advantage of this low rating.
Could’ve dropped him 20lb and he still wouldn’t have won, continues his terrible AW record of coming last in each try, what a strange horse….
Back to the drawing board!
I turn my attention to the jumps and a decent card today at Southwell, with a couple of potentially decent hurdlers on show.
Today’s best bet is Tocca Ferro in the 2.30 at Southwell (currently 5/4 with b365).
Showed a good attitude to win what was probably just an ordinary bumper at Wincanton in March 2009, and then followed up with a good third behind the potentially smart Bellvano and useful Prince Buster (although the latter let the form down a bit at the weekend). He jumped well in the main despite a few mistakes towards the end of the race but has since been off for a few months and Emma Lavelle looks sure to have schooled him well in the meantime. If Lavelle has Cheltenham aspirations with the horse this year (held in very high regard at home), he should be up to winning this modest event.
At last, a winner! Ok the odds weren’t that great but not too bad….will try and concentrate on the jumps for the time being, the AW is a real minefield apart from the odd beacon of hope (Johnston horses running second time out perhaps).
A good card at Newbury but there’s not much scope between the main form protagonists there (i.e. Master of the Hall/Wishfull Thinking for example), so I’m turning my attention to Punchestown.
Today’s best bet comes in the 3.45, where NTD sends a rare runner to Ireland and the track in the form of Frascati Park, and has asked the prolific Ruby Walsh to ride (has racked up 6 winners since Sat). (Currently evens with b365).
Second behind the classy Reve de Sivola in a Grade 2 at Chepstow on similar ground, and although a disappointing 4th behind Manyriverstocross when favourite for the Winter Novices Hurdle at Sandown, the form in this context is far superior and should take all the beating.
After a week off from tipping I aim to come back with a bang tomorrow. A horse that I have been following carefully over the past two years, The Hollinwell runs at Warwick tomorrow in only his third start of fences. After being touted ‘the talking horse of the yard’ since 2007, much of the hype had been rather premature as he didn’t impress that much in bumpers or novice hurdles, remaining a maiden up until starting over fences. However, since put over the larger obstacles he has been ridden much more prominently which seems to have suited well, and led from start to finish on his debut at Hexham where he jumped flawlessly in the main on good to soft ground. His second start yielded a second place behind a progressive H Johnston horse but also jumped well. Ferdy Murphy has taken the patient approach akin to Henrietta Knight with Calgary Bay, but at the age of 7 now is the time for all the faith he has put in the horse to be translated into a few wins and hopefully, some appearances in some better novice chases starting tomorrow. The only dangers for me are Backbenscher, who will appreciate the soft surface and looks sure to be involved at the finish and Qulinton from the in form Pipe yard, but would probably prefer faster ground. At around 4/1, think its worthy of a nap selection but hopefully it will just be a step onto much better things.
50% strike rate at the moment, albeit from only 4 selections.
Some good meetings today and will be interested to see how Tataniano fares at Newbury in preparation for the Arkle.
My nap today however comes at Chepstow in the 3.30, a good 3m stamina test on bottomless ground and I’m expecting a good run from Notabotheronme from the Philip Hobbs yard. Never before has the ‘horses for courses’ theory been so pertinent in this case – the selection seems to come alive at the venue, winning once and placed on four occasions. Has slipped to a winnable OR of 105 after finishing a close 2nd at Chepstow off a mark of 112 last February. Although recent form hasn’t exactly inspired, I will take a chance that on return to his favourite course and on a lenient mark that he can take advantage, 6/1 currently with b365 against some fairly exposed and poorly treated runners is fair.
Riguez Dancer
, 6/4.
Ferdy Murphy is striking gold with novice chasers at the moment with both The Hollinwell and Ockey De Neuillac winning this past month, and I feel the promising Riguez Dancer can add to that tally.
It often pays to take notice when Murphy talks his horses up, as can be seen with Kalahari King (labelled a machine by Ferdy in 2007), The Hollinwell (the talking horse of the yard in 2007) and Ockey De Neuillac (potential Arkle contender in 2009). Riguez Dancer was also touted as an Arkle horse when brought to the yard following a good flat career for Pat Haslam, and although falling on his chase debut he was an encouraging second LTO and is sure to have been well-schooled since. 6/4 is about right with only Middleton Dene a danger.
Not one to blow my own trumpet, but I make that a 71% win percentage on here, plus the Ockey De Neuillac tip on another thread, making it 75%. Ferdy Murphy is certainly in form at the moment, as he usually is coming into the Spring. Hopefully RD will follow The Hollinwell and ODN as Ferdy’s next crop of promising young chasers.
Not one to focus too much on bumpers, but I can’t help but be buoyed by Alan Swinbank’s record in bumpers in general, but especially at Carlisle; he enjoys a near 25% success rate at the course in bumpers. Guy Reed’s colours is also a good sign. His runner today,
Stetson
is quite speedily bred so the 1m6f should be within reach and soft ground probably won’t inconvenience too much. 7/4 currently.
With Carlisle abandoned today’s bet is now
Othermix
at Ludlow, in the hope that he can rekindle his classy French form; Tom George thinks the world of him and could be the next Nacarat
Othermix disappointing but will come on for the run.
Huntingdon is Henrietta Knight’s track. For this reason, I’m giving the very well-treated
South Bank
a chance off his lowly weight in the hope that he can come good after some poor and moderate last few runs. Now 9lb lower than his last outing, on ground he likes (won here in 2007 on a higher mark) and at around 8/1 he’s worth a go.
After a couple of disappointing tips, I will return with what hopefully should be a pretty safe bet.
Duc De Regniere
is becoming synonymous with Kempton, with over half of his wins coming at the track. Form is solid, jumps well and is probably still improving. The 8/11 doesn’t look too bad value considering Big Fella Thanks is just having a prep run for a tilt at the National.
Surely it’s time for
Poker De Sivola
to break his duck over fences? This is a much easier race than he’s contested over the past year although McCain’s Vforvictory is a progressive type. Nevertheless, Ferdy Murphy has been in solid form with his young chasers in the past month and I expect PDS to go in here. Current price 15/8 with b365.
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