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War Sound :Already on at 10s (with a NRNB EW for Champ Hurdle)
Zarib 20s
Mad Jack Mytton 20s
Nice Trifecta to set me up for Cheltenham :)
Last time out winners fair very well in this. Only 3 entered – War Sound, Dicosimo and Sternrubin. Can’t have War Sound off a 9-month absence (ok Zarkandar did it but you can’t compare War Sound with Zarkandar), Mullins has a very bad record in the Betfair Hurdle and so Sternrubin it is.
I’m in Raymo’s camp, I think that AFFAIRE DHONNEUR Looks a really interesting
horse. He has run some decent races in France, before being bought and brought
over here in November. I think he rode a hugely promising race first time over
here, in a handicap hurdle at Kempton on 27th December. He and the winner, Zulu
Oscar, ran away from them, Zulu Oscar getting first run. There has to be a lot of
improvement from that, and I don’t think the 8lb rise will in any way stop him.He is a well bred son of Shirocco being a half brother to French Oaks 2nd
(Physiocrate), and as they say “could be anything”. I’m hoping that “anything”
is very decent.Still a few 12s about, I think that is very worth taking. I’m in with both feet
If the Supreme Novice and Neptune were NRNB, I’d be having a bit of e/w at 100/1 in both,
I might even chance it. I think he could look very progressive after Saturday.Last time out winners fair very well in this. Only 3 entered – War Sound, Dicosimo and Sternrubin.
Blazer?
Have had a few quid on the fav as totally unexposed and could be anything…my other play is a small each way on Agrapart at 25’s…won easy as ya like time before last and wasn’t disgraced behind Yorkhill last time doing the donkey work…
Have to say Blazer could be thrown in. Won as he liked last Sunday after 2 failed chase attempts. Only a 5lb penalty which I doubt will stop him. Low weight, likes the ground,travels well.
I’m quite happy with AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR, but I’m going to have a back up
and I’m quite keen on DICOSIMO. It’s asking a lot to carry 11st.9lbs in such
a competitive race, he’s going to have to be better than this level if he’s going
to win. You have to stretch back a few years for horses who have carried more
than 11st to victory, most recently Zarkander (2012) and 10 years and beyond for
the likes of Essex, Copeland and Make A Stand.He ran well, winning his 1st race at Gowran Park after coming over from France last
season, and then ran a good race in the Triumph, leading until he tired between the
last 2. Same result in his next race at Fairyhouse where he went off fav but again
tired at the finish.He came back out on his seasonal debut in December, in a listed race at Limerick, and
looked like he is now living up to his reputation. He went off fav again, and won very
easily over 2m in heavy with no sign of weakness at the finish, he has obviously
strengthened up.He will have to be very good to win this, but if he improves, as I hope he will, he
is no forlorn hope here. Generally 16/1, as low as 12s, but a very generous 20/1 with
Coral (if you can manage to get more than £1.50 on with that mob)I think those 2 will do me for this.
GLA
I am not normally a conspiracy theorist but has Hobbs left Cheltenian in to stop the weights going up for his other two??
I remember Kim Brassey I think doing a similar thing with a horse called Destroyer in a big staying handicap many years ago and to me it looks like Hobbs has two other fancied in the race who both may benefit from the weights staying the same.
I am happy with Mad Jack and Affaire and I have had a saver on Sternrubin.
Cheltenian is a 2 mile handicap hurdler and probably exposed now, this is an obvious race to go for Raymo. Although do agree his participation helps Hobbs other runners. I’v backed both War Sound 10/1 and Sternrubin 16/1 ante-post along with Modus. Must say I think bookmakers have overdone things by pushing out War Sound much too far since Johnson has “chosen” Sternrubin. Gethings has struck up a partnership with War Sound and am pleased he’s on board. Topped up my bet.
It’ll be difficult for Johnson to make all again; Dicosimo, Starchitect, Agrapart and most of all Chieftain’s Choice could take him on. But he’s used to making a strong pace. In my opininion went off too hard last time – better than result.
Been keeping an eye on Modus since given plenty to do at Newbury earlier in the season (still managed to get up close home). Better than winning distance and laid out for this… And then late in the day along comes another well treated McManus horse for BG to ride. Not a fan of Schofield myself. What’s STD doing on a Mullins horse?
I’ve had savers on three Mullins horses. Obvious one Blazer, on form of last week could be thrown in but will he back it up just a week on? Trainer not known for getting them out quickly, possibly more influenced by trying to win the British Trainers title. Dicosimo looks a stayer at the trip and won well last time for today’s jockey. Kalkir was placed in one of Ireland’s top handicap Hurdles last time and lightly raced so could improve.
Doesn’t seem as open as some years, three trainers responsible for half the field. Can’t find many outsiders worthy of a mention. Want to be against Jonjo’s because he’s yet to truly fire this Spring, ditto Nick Willims (Agrapart). Starchitect’s change of stable is interesting but ground probably gone against him. One I haven’t backed but give a good chance to is the maiden Affaire D’honneur, excellent first run for a trainer going places – Harry Wittington. Can’t back every one (Gord), watch it scoot in now. The rank outsider I seriously thought about backing is Montbazon for in form Alan King, looks potentially well handicapped. However, similar to when running in this in 2014 not seen out for a long time. Seemingly used that year as a prep for Cheltenham (placed there after disappointing here). Will keep an eye on whether there’s a market move.My 100% Book:
Blazer 4/1, Modus 13/2, War Sound 7/1, Sternrubin 8/1, Affaire Donneur 11/1, Dicosimo 15/1, Kalkir 15/1, Starchitect 33/1, Zarib 33/1, Agrapart 40/1, Matorico 40/1, Baby King 50/1, Cheltenian 66/1, Ivan Grozny 66/1, Business Sivola 66/1, Mad Jack Mytton 66/1, Montbazon 66/1, Waxies Dargle 200/1, Flying Angel 200/1, Champagne At Tara 400/1, Chieftain’s Choice 400/1Value Is EverythingIn my first betting NH season I managed to get a bit of 33s with a splash of ginge.
Another outsider in Waxies Dargle may go well at 40s. May Nick a place at a big price.
Main bet however is on Zarib 18s and shall consider Dicisimo later this morning as he’s got his groundGL everyone
I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast with AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR, but I
thought I would add a speculative thought. If AD is as good as I hope he is,
it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he could appear in one of
the Novice Hurdles at Cheltenham.He is entered in both the Supreme and the Neptune, although I would think
it more likely, if he does appear, that he would take his chance in the
Supreme. You can get 100/1 quite easily, and 66/1 without Min (who looks
a nailed on winner) with Skybet.Equally, you can get 100/1 for him in the Neptune, and 66/1 with Paddy Power
without Yanworth (who again looks nailed on).I know it’s a bit speculative, but I’ve taken him in both, in case he hoses up
here. At those odds, even if he does crash and burn here, you don’t have to risk
much. I think it’s worth a gamble.I hope you are right BIG G I am on for this race at 16/1 !! He could be anything as you say!
Good Luck for you and me
I hope you are right BIG G I am on for this race at 16/1 !! He could be anything as you say!
Good Luck for you and me
Well done getting the 16s Raymo, that looks pretty big now as he’s best priced
9/1 at the moment. He’s one that catches your eye, he could be very good. Fingers
crossed that after 3.45 he’s no longer 100/1 for CheltenhamZarib EW will be my bet,the ground will suit as does the CD,and the 5lb claim will be a help.Good luck whatever you back.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Congratulations to Lizzie Kelly and Nick Williams, but what a bloody disaster of
a race for AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR!Gavin Sheeham obviously wanted to be prominent when they were circling, but when
they had to do a standing start he got totally left. He was stuck behind the whole
field, plumb last until they started thinning out with 2 to go. He made more ground
than anything else to come through into 4th, which says millions for the horse as he
had no chance from his position.My bet’s down, that’s ok, but I wouldn’t rule out a go at either the Supreme or the
Neptune, I’m on for them and I’m more than happy that he won’t disgrace himself if
he goes there.Well done Lizzie but I have to agree with Big G Affaire D’Honeure was unlucky should have finished second at worst but then again if Starchitect hadn’t of made the maistake at the last who knows??
Well done Lizzie but I have to agree with Big G Affaire D’Honeure was unlucky should have finished second at worst but then again if Starchitect hadn’t of made the maistake at the last who knows??
In full agreement Raymo, I’ve no idea if AFFAIRE D’HONNEURE would have won, the winner
pulled well clear and Starchitect was unlucky too. He would have been in the mix I’m
sure, but it was a promising run considering the position he was in.He has been cut by half by quite a few firms for the Neptune, perhaps they think the way
he finished the extra distance would be to his benefit. Only Sky have cut him for the Supreme,
that would be my bet with them with and without Min…….not
Oh joy! I’m spending a lot of time in Northumberland at the moment doing up a house; no internet up there. Back home for a couple of days for my granddaughters birthday and threw a few 2 pence ew bets on the race without studying it and got the winner and the 5th. Didn’t even see the race as I was at her ‘party’.
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