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“I bet you he never wins another race”.
Quite possible he will never win another race, GAG.
Because his best is at Aintree and the Irish will probably have something to beat him there.
I think Grey Dawning has a fair chance of improving past Ahoy Senor by the end of the season.
Bravemansgame isn’t the horse he was.
Royal Paguaille is good at Haydock, but would you say his Haydock form is within half a length of Gerri Colombe (as Ahoy Senor’s is)?
L’Homme Presse would be up there with AS if still capable of his 2022 form. But hasn’t shown it on limited appearances since.
Shishkin is sadly no longer with us.
So as it stands today. Which currently British trained staying horse has form better than Ahoy Senor?
Value Is Everything“So as it stands today. Which currently British trained staying horse has form better than Ahoy Senor?”
Trouble is the main form is at Aintree where he is less ‘cream-crackered’ than others at the meeting. ;o)
He’s won one chase out of novice company and that was a grade 2, yet he is rated 169 largely because of his Aintree exploits. I will give him some credit for that, his recovery abilities from Cheltenham to Aintree.
Great to see the gutsy RP land this again. Personally I think the different jumps at the last probably determined the finish
Are we saying current form Ginger or any form?
Because BMG is head and shoulders above him on ALL form.
“as it stands today. Which currently British trained staying horse has form better than Ahoy Senor? ”
Well, you initially said “Purely on ability shown, Ahoy Senor is arguably Britain’s best staying chaser” which is slightly different but anyway:
“I think Grey Dawning has a fair chance of improving past Ahoy Senor by the end of the season.”
He already has.“Bravemansgame isn’t the horse he was.” Neither is Ahoy Senor but as Tiz said he was better at his peak and remains better than AS. He stayed on manfully for 3rd in ground that he probably doesn’t love- his KG win was on soft but not Haydock bog (officially soft but prob closer to heavy yesterday). AS folded.
“Royal Paguaille is good at Haydock, but would you say his Haydock form is within half a length of Gerri Colombe (as Ahoy Senor’s is)?
The Gerri that had a grueller in the Gold Cup, whereas Ahoy Senor was bimbling around jumping badly in the Ryanair and not getting ridden hard for the places? Royal Pagaille has won 2 open Grade 1s to AS’ zero and stuffed him by 20 lengths in the King George back in the day.“L’Homme Presse would be up there with AS if still capable of his 2022 form. But hasn’t shown it on limited appearances since.”
He won last season, which is more than AS has done, and beat him comfortably this calendar year. I’d back L’Homme Presse over Ahoy Senor over any track or trip.“Shishkin is sadly no longer with us.”
Neither is Giovinco but according to oddschecker, he’s more likely to win the gold cup than Ahoy Senor.“So as it stands today. Which currently British trained staying horse has form better than Ahoy Senor?”
As Mike says, AS is overrated due to form beating Cheltenham-cooked horses. All of the above are better staying chasers than him, Chianti Classico probably is as well, and even though they may race over shorter trips I’d rather back Protektorat or The Real Whacker currently over 3 miles plus than Ahoy Senor. I would also back Iroko over AS in future if I knew the handbrake was off, although he is not yet proven.Ahoy Senor’s jumping varies from unreliable through not great to downright abysmal. He can’t cope with deep ground and he has an irreversible skeletal issue (sidebone). His team have done well to collect as much prize money as they have with him.
This is a conversation that has no ending! Nobody is ever going to convince Ginger that Ahoy Senor isn’t the finest chaser this side of the Irish Sea.
The rest of us will just have to make do with being sane.
“Impressive mental gymnastics that pal.
This is jumps racing. You don’t jump well all the way round in these Grade 1 races you’re going to lose a lot more than you win”.I said TC, “On his day, Ahoy Senor is a very good horse. Just not as consistent due to jumping frailties… Many horses of a lower ability win more races than Ahoy Senor does”.
“Hold up tactics were never going to see him In this best light against a horse like Royal Pagaile on that ground at that track”.
I said TC, “Ahoy Senor might do better another day on better ground. imo Has never shown his best form on as soft as it was today. Yes, his very best form is at Aintree”,
We agree on all the above, TC.
“But it’s 1 win from 11 races now. Official wins. Not moral ones (wtf
) Sooner or later, for the sake of your bank account I hope you realise he’s not the horse you like to think he is”!Of course a punter has to take into account how likely a horse is of running to form. But in the time span you’re talking about Ahoy Senor has been beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Shishkin… And only 1/2 length by Gerri Colombre. Why do you believe Ahoy Senor should’ve beaten Shishkin and Gerri Colombe, TC?
It seems you don’t want to give him any credit for taking on the best. I am not saying he’s a particularly good betting proposition. Just that his placed form (behind some of the best horses around) can be rated higher (ie on ratings – how good a horse is) than many who’ve won Grade 1 races… A win is not necessarily better “form” than a second, third or 4th etc against better horses… And if not taking into account how horses would’ve performed with a better ride (eg the Old Roan) TC… You’ll never make a profit from the game.
Value Is Everything“This is a conversation that has no ending! Nobody is ever going to convince Ginger that Ahoy Senor isn’t the finest chaser this side of the Irish Sea”.
To be “the finest”, you need to be consistent… and Ahoy Senor is not consistent.
But to have “the best form”, then (wherever it is achieved) a horse’s best form only needs to be better than all the other horses’ best form (wherever they’ve achieved theirs).Value Is EverythingYou only have to look at the betting for the Gold Cup to see how staying horses this side of the Irish Sea are considered.
The more I know the less I understand.
Thanks for the long reply, GAG. Interesting reading and I’ll reply in kind.
“Purely on ability shown” is the same as “form”, the form rating is the level of ability shown.
Come on, Ahoy Senor showed this season he is as good as ever in the Old Roan off a mark of 169.
We’re judging one horse’s best form against another horse’s best form. Bravemansgame’s 3rd at Haydock was nowhere near his best form. As Ahoy Senor’s pulled up in the same race wasn’t his best form. So their runs don’t count in comparison. Bravemansgame’s placed effort in the King George is not as good a level of form as his victory in the race…. And I think most people do not believe Bravemansgame still capable of the form he showed to win the King George, or for that matter the form shown when second in the Gold Cup.
Fair enough, Gerri might have been below his Gold Cup runners-up form, but it was still a good run from Gerri… And AS did finish well ahead of Corbetts.
Royal Pagaille was beaten 14 lengths by Bravemansgame at Kempton. Even at his best Bravemansgame was not a 14 lengths better horse than Royal Pagaille. Again, neither RP or AS were at their bests that day, so the race does not count in comparing Royal Pagaille’s best with Ahoy Senor’s best.
Yes, L’Homme Presse did win last season at Lingfield. But he was getting 4 lbs from Protektorat who was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths. It was a good performance first time out, but L’Homme Presse does not even come out the best chaser in the race, let alone the best British staying chaser. For his best you’ve got to go back to 2022, therefore he might still be capable of that, might not.
Chianti Classico is a good shout for one who might topple Ahoy Senor in time, be nice to see Kim Bailey back in the big time.
We’ll have to agree to disagree.
Value Is EverythingI agree RTB, is one reason why I made the Ahoy Senor comment.
Although Grey Dawning still might get in amongst the Irish.
Value Is EverythingGinger.
Ahoy Senor was a cracking horse.
In hindsight I think it would have made more sense to revert to hurdling last year and aimed at the stayers. The company isn’t as deep and he doesn’t jump anything as well as the top class chase horses.
But I think you’ve got red tinted glasses on when it comes to reading his current form. Penultimate run aside (where we know he excels) he’s been regressing for the last 18 months. Not a surprise given the amount of (usually tough) races he’s ran. And connections deserve credit for getting the horse out so often.
Also, choosing to only compare him to British runners is a bit of a fools errand. He’s rarely likely to come up against only British trained runners.
The Gold Cup looks such a vintage year this time around that yes TC, it would be no surprise if some come back to hurdling. Especially when the Stayers Hurdle is the opposite, only one top staying hurdler around at the moment – Teahupoo. Ahoy Senor’s jumping of fences might put him in the category of chasers who might go back hurdling. However, he’s an enormous beast who was always likely to be better over fences, even if booting the odd one out of the way. That said, previous Stayers Hurdle winner Flooring Porter is injured, so if going back hurdling AS might be able to make all.
Value Is EverythingGinger.
You just pointed out BMG beat Royal Pagaille 14l………… then said he’s not a 14l better horse than him. Well if he beats him 14l, he clearly is! That’s how this game works! In open company races especially!
No TC.
Horses run below their very best most of the time.
A Master Rating is given in order to show what rating that individual racehorse is capable of showing given its IDEAL conditions. Therefore:If horse A puts up an improved performance, good enough for a rating of say 162 at Haydock in Soft ground… And then on Good-Soft puts up a rating of 157 in finishing a 14 lengths 2nd at Kempton to horse B. Where horse B himself puts up his best performance of 171…
Yes, on the day, horse B has put up a 14 lengths better performance than horse A. However, horse A is still thought capable of putting up a rating of 162 given its ideal conditions. Therefore its Master Rating of 162 is NOT changed.
So Horse A’s best is 162 and horse B’s best is 171.
Horse B is NOT a 14 lengths better horse than A.
Horse B is a 9 lbs better horse than A because the Master Rating is a measurement of what they are thought capable of at their respective bests.NB: 1 pound is NOT always equal to 1 length. I’ve just allowed it to be in this example because it is easier to explain.
Ahoy Senor’s Master Rating would NOT go down just for being pulled up at Haydock. It would only go down IF the horse is no longer thought capable of reproducing its Master Rating if / when returning to Aintree… Or IF there’s been more evidence and the form of his previous race/s at Aintree have been reassessed to be of a lower level.
Value Is EverythingIt sounds a bit like Ginge is the Spartans facing the Persians here, and
I admit I think he is a bit hard done by. I wrote in this thread some way back ……
——————————————————–
“He’s always been a favourite of mine has Ahoy Senor. He ran a cracker in the William
Hill Bowl Chase at Aintree only going down by 1/2L to Gerri Columbe over much the same
distance on soft ground. Ran a bit of a strange race up front last time out then dropping
back and finishing well. I’ll put that down to 200 days off and the 2 1/2 miles was on the
short side for him. I can see him leading from piller to post here.”Ahoy Senor 6/1 William Hill
——————————————————–The race didn’t go as I expected, I thought he would be up with the pace but I didn’t
expect them to be running in a bog. Linda Russell didn’t mince her words with the
stewards on them calling the ground soft.He might not have won the Cotswald Chase last year, but he had more than an excellent
chance when the right stirrup broke 4 out. The jockey became unbalanced towards the last,
when still leading and did well to get over the last fence with 3 very good horses, Capadanno,
The real Whacker and Stay Away Fay, all with 2 stirrups, getting the better of him at the last.
Racing is full of if’s and buts, excuses if you like, but in that race he was as good as the 3
that finished ahead of him. He ran an excellent race. Figures don’t always tell the story.He was riding a great race, led from the start and was travelling well when he jumped the
fence 5 from home well, but then his front legs gave way under him. This is the Cheltenham
Gold Cup we are talking about. We’ll never know what would have happened if he had stood
up after that fence, but he was happy in front and was travelling as well as anything behind
him. One mistake, but he still ran a great race.Right after that he ran in the Aintree Bowl Chase. We’ve discussed this, he ran from the front
and looked he had them all beat when Shishkin came over the last fence and his renowned pace
was too much for Ahoy Senor. There aren’t many shishkins about now. Not too many win 12 races
on the trot. He was 2nd but he ran a great race.Knowing now he has been suffering sidebone for some time, but at least they know now and
can treat it. Lucinda Russel says “this is his year” “he’s probably the best I’ve trained,
this is his year and the aim is the gold Cup. This horse was towards the front of the betting
for the gold Cup, and now is trading at 100/1. Over the head of 1 race, run on a bog??If Linda Russel says this will be his year and the aim is the Gold Cup. Then who am I to cast
aspersions. I’m right into Paddy’s book and having a huge bite at that 100/1.Best of luck
) Sooner or later, for the sake of your bank account I hope you realise he’s not the horse you like to think he is”!
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