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Fontaine Collonges won the following handicap in virtually the same time as Royale Pagaille in the Grade 1. Carrying the same weight.
GM23;
I think Dan Skeltons hand was forced for him to run the horse today.
In an ideal world he would have ran in the Colin Parker a couple of weeks ago on better ground over a slightly shorter trip for his prep for the king George.
Running in that ground against grade one horses has possibly cooked his goose for the king George now.
Mike, I know you’re hot on trainer quotes. Any news from Big Dan Skelton after the race on Grey Dawnings next move?
TC he’s having a good rest now. Possible new year target includes Cotwold Chase and Denman Chase.
Not convinced that GD will be a Gold Cup horse – especially if we get one run on attritional ground. Don’t forget it is another 2f at Cheltenham with all its undulations and that unforgiving final Hill to climb after the last.
He was outstayed today by an admirable but fully exposed horse at G1 level (outside of Haydock on soft ground of course) and I think even if he had not missed the last fence, RP would have battled back and got him anyway. GD might well have won had he have been able to have had that prep run in the Charlie Hall, as that might have knocked some of the freshness out of him as he was doing a little too much early on.
I fully appreciate that they will still go down the GC route this season to find out for sure but I could really see him eventually ending up being a 2m4f-3m horse with races like King George/Ryanair Chase/BetBowl Gold Cup/Punchestown Gold Cup being tailor made for him.
Grey Dawning was never going for the King George anyway, TC. This was his main early season target. He’d won right-handed over hurdles but improved significantly when sent left-handed. Only run once right-handed over fences when a well beaten 3rd on chase debut… And can jump to his left, as he did markedly on occasions at Warwick. It’s also noticeable how Skelton keeps Grey Dawning on the inside rail as much as possible in every race – so he can’t lose ground. Today, when switched to go around Royal Pagaille he went slightly left 2 out and then more so at the last, making a bad mistake which cost him.
imo More outjumped at the last than “outstayed”. Novices need to step up again once in Open company and this was imo still a step up on the form he showed last term. Could still be more improvement to come too. I’d expect him to run in either the Cotswold or Denman and doubt we’ll ever see him right-handed again.
Value Is EverythingSkelton didn’t want leave Ginnys career on the Haydock racecourse , plenty decent novices have been emptied there over the years , wouldn’t write the horse off yet
Would it not be fair to say that was the only fence Grey Dawning got outjumped on by the winner? That’s what made me think he was on fumes which could be fitness related not necessarily stamina but stamina does still remain a slight question mark too. Its a step up on his novice form for sure but still probably a stone shy of the standard set by the reigning champ in the division and there is a lot of competition in Ireland as that race tomorrow would attest to. He could feasibly be the best in Britain and still only be playing for a midfield place in a Gold Cup.
Not writing him off at all and yes today was an improved run from his novice form but it is going to require an even bigger jump from the form of being beaten by RP to getting into the mix for a Gold Cup, over a trip I don’t think will end up being his optimum.
His keeness in the early stages of races will never be condusive to him staying the GC trip and horse like GDC and Fastorslow etc really see that trip out well and are not the horses you want upsides you at the last with that hill to climb, when you are on a horse that is approaching the redline of their stamina range.
As I said I could very well see him excelling at trips up to and including 3m, very much in the vein of say an Allaho, Cue Card, One Man or Wayward Lad.
“Would it not be fair to say that was the only fence Grey Dawning got outjumped on by the winner?”
That was the problem. RP was popping them, GD was too flashy. You can only jump like that and win in a Haydock bog or a gold cup on any ground if you’re really, really good and maybe not even then. See also : Il Est Francais in the Prix la Haye Jousselin.
RP is not the most fluent of jumpers (has his own way of doing it but as he doesn’t get very high he has a much smaller margin of error) and he did miss a few on the way round today so you could probably mark him up a bit because of the effort it takes to regain momentum from mistakes.
Would love to hear the lengths gained/lost per fence b/s from McNae on this one to see how he would explain it away, because I would imagine that RP would have lost a fair few more lengths more at his fences compared to GD and yet he still won despite it being so important (as he would have you believe the way he bangs on about it).
If he’d ran at Carlisle Ginger he’d of ran in the king George in my opinion instead of here today. There’s no way any trainer is going to want to run a horse stepping out of novice company for the first time in the Betfair knowing how the ground usually is.
I don’t think for a second that run is going to have done the horse any long term harm. But it’s clear he’s only going to run once more before the gold cup and whilst he largely jumped well, no way could I have him on my mind for the race in march now. They should have waited for better ground somewhere like the Cotswold chase and gone to the gold cup with a tad less experience over fences but without running in such a taxing race.
They’ve finished miles clear of the 3rd and that’s some feat given that trip and ground are exactly what the winner wants!
Grey Dawning missed his prep. That’s in a nutshell why he didn’t win today. He still has some potential imo. Whether its Gold Cup winning/place potential we shall have to wait and see.
Ahoy Senor might do better another day on better ground. imo Has never shown his best form on as soft as it was today. Yes, his very best form is at Aintree, but his Cotswold Chase victory remains one of his best five performances, might have won last year’s Cotswold too had his tack not broke while trying to give weight to all bar Royal Pagaille… And as a novice found only one – L’Homme Presse – too good in the RSA – sorry – “Browns Advisory”.
His Aintree run last time out is under-rated. Should in all probability have won the limited handicap off a mark of 169 had Fox made his ground up earlier. To put that into perspective – Protektorat was asked to carry top weight in the Paddy Power – off a mark of 2 lbs less, 167.
On his day, Ahoy Senor is a very good horse. Just not as consistent due to jumping frailties… And today jumping wasn’t his downfall. It was being far too headstrong in that ground. I doubt Royal Paguille’s performance today will be rated higher than Ahoy Senor’s Old Roan “third” (moral victory)… And yet Royal Pagaille could be classed as even more of a one course pony than Ahoy Senor. Got to go back to 2020 to find his only British victory away from Haydock… And has imo never run within 10 lbs of his best anywhere else.
Many horses of a lower ability win more races than Ahoy Senor does. But it wasn’t his fault he had such a bad ride in the Old Roan… Not his fault the tack broke in the Cotswold, and not his fault Cheltenham Gold Cup second Gerri Columbre turned up in the Bowl. Only beaten half a length there, with Corbetts Cross (putting up his best ever rating) 2 1/4 lengths back in 3rd.
Purely on ability shown, Ahoy Senor is still arguably Britain’s best staying chaser.
Value Is Everything“Purely on ability shown, Ahoy Senor is still arguably Britain’s best staying chaser.”
I bet you he never wins another race.
Impressive mental gymnastics that pal.
This is jumps racing. You don’t jump well all the way round in these Grade 1 races you’re going to lose a lot more than you win.
Hold up tactics were never going to see him
In this best light against a horse like Royal Pagaile on that ground at that track.But it’s 1 win from 11 races now. Official wins. Not moral ones (wtf
) Sooner or later, for the sake of your bank account I hope you realise he’s not the horse you like to think he is!Britain’s best staying chaser
You gotta love Rich Ricci’s enthusiasm for the sport and how much he likes the Williams stable.
What a great interview!!!RP deserved his win today. Grey Dawning was all spent out on the heavy ground.
It was a brave run in unsuitable conditions and he gave everything you could see him trying to fight back. DS said he’ll be given him time to recover from this.
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Yes Ruby more characters like Rich Ricci and Venetia Williams, 3 x winner’s in 45 minutes, herself and Rich Ricci must have been doing a rain dance this morning
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
) Sooner or later, for the sake of your bank account I hope you realise he’s not the horse you like to think he is!
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