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Bristol de mai for me 3/1 more than fair
A plus tard always needs his first run
Next destination would prefer a stronger stamina test
I’m not sure about royally pagailles jumping at grade 1 level
Waiting patiently hates winning
Looks like it’ll be gd to soft, hes won this race on that ground before. This will be his gold cup, it won’t be for the other horses
Have to question running Native River on this flat course on likely good to soft ground at this trip – his last two runs on good to soft at Aintree and Cheltenham showed he didn’t have the early pace to keep up as he was off the bridle from very early on and as tough and resolute as he is, it is unfair to continue to put him in that position.
For me he now needs extreme tests either on a stiff course in deep ground (at 3m/3m2F) or over extended distances, the glaringly obvious choice is the Welsh National and (although connections will never do it) the Grand National as they are tailor made for him as they don’t go that championship pace.
There are so many if buts and maybes for the field –
A Plus Tard – Class of the field but fitness? Has never won first time out for De Bromhead
Bristol – Can’t really have him on quicker ground as although he handles it no problem, it doesn’t inconvenience his rivals antwhere near as much as the usual deep ground at Haydock would.
Next Destination – Dark horse and second to Galvin reads well but that was over 6F further on a much stiffer course, could be more of a National/long distance chase type horse.
Royal Pagaille – Jumping issues? Very low at his fences which was helped by his best form being on very deep ground where the pace is slower and more time to jump, his style doesn’t leave much margin for error and on quicker ground it really was found out in the Gold Cup.
Imperial Aura – 3m2F at Cheltenham looked a little beyond him but that was back in 2019, reportedly bled when PU at Cheltenham last time so forgive him that poor run, 2020 Festival win over Galvin reads well but that was over 2m4f. Wouldn’t be the biggest surprise.
Waiting Patiently – Connections have and it really hasn’t paid off all that well last few seasons but given his seemingly fragile nature (has yet to run more than 3 times in a season his whole career) and him usually running his best race first time out, as long as soft appears in the ground description this could be the best and only time to take a chance on him.
Rachel Blackmore coming over to ride in this instead of Bob Olinger is a positive i think.
I thought Rachael would have chosen Bob as, looking ahead to March, she’s likely to ride Minella Indo in the GC if Jack Kennedy is called up to ride Delta Work (assuming they all get there).
I won’t be betting on this race but it will be a fascinating watch.
After last year I was sure to bet Royale Pagaille here. Somehow Haydock seems a course for specialists and Royale Pagaille showed his class here two times last season. Very similar to Bristol de Mai 5 years ago. He might be his successor.
Royale Pagaille 9/1
While a plus tard is the best horse in the race horse Henry’s horse,s have all looked in need of the run so I couldn’t go on him at such a price , it’s interesting Nicholls has brought Next destination here , very bullish about the form he,s in so I’ve played e.w , the other is imperial aura , he has 2 ways of running but on a good day ( esp when fresh ) he has the form to be involved , I’m not his biggest fan buy it’s a shame Bristol De Mai won’t get his ground , I can’t see him having the legs to win this on tomorrow’s ground
Next Destination e.w
Imperial Aura e.w
Rev forecast
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Sticking with long term antepost Bristol De Mai
Also added
Next Destination as interesting p.nicholls thinks he has a great chance and likes him to the like of late silviniaco conti
vf x
For a horse that hasn’t won for about 1,110 days Waiting Patiently is a rather skinny price.
Bristol De Mai is only good for one decent run each season, which is apparently this race. But I think that you’ll get better 7/2 shots in a G1 than him. Havings said that, he might still win, even by a big margin.
The one I’m really interested in is Royale Pagaille. He likes the course, he’s open to some improvement at the age of 7 and his trainer was 2-2 at Ascot on Friday, which is usually a sign that her horses are coming back to form. I’ll take the 10/1 right now.
Ruby you not worried he,ll want softer ground , it is coming to Williams time of year esp when it gets heavy
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I understand your point about the ground HDLG, but at 10s I’m still willing to have a go.
It certainly has been a long time between drinks for WP but I would be on cloud nine if he could do the business tomorrow.
Some horses you just grow an attachment to for some strange reason and he’s definitely one of those for me.
I’ve followed him over the cliff like a lemming these past few years so theres no point in stopping now…C’MON THE WAITER!
Wasn’t going to have another in this, but took the 9’s for Royal Pagaille, as slight ground concerns aside, I thought that just too big.
That was BOG, but had to add more at 11’s. Market doesn’t like him at all, and no surprise to see him a Non Runner in the morning, but I’d kick myself if I wasn’t on.
Royal Pagaille 11’s
Agreed Bobby, he’s too big at 10s, with a PP boost to 11s.
I’ve also got him in my TTF so it would be a double result.Royale Pagaille 11/1
(Where have the highlighters gone
)Based on trainer comments yesterday regarding Royal Pagaille, backers are up against it…
“We really wanted more rain. There are so few races for the good horses, so if you don’t take your chance when the races are there, you find yourself keeping the horse in the stable for the next month or more. It’s a course he knows his way around well but it’s a hugely competitive race, as expected. The Gold Cup was a top-class race on quickish ground, it found many horses out, and him included.”
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