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Been waiting on a bit of confirmation Dare to Endeavour was going for this race, and judging by the RP article today it seems like it’s the target this year.
Gave me a great run last year E/W @ 66’s and hopefully he can go one better this time.
A stone better off at the weights compared to last years winner Highland Lodge.
Had a win bet @ 22.0 on the exchanges earlier today.
Also like the look of Portrait King who was going really well before he fell at the second last in the same race, but will try to hold off having a bet on him till i hear some news about his plans.
A win bet on PK as well @ 33’s
I mentioned Portrait King for this on The National thread Botchy, and the 33’s, as far as I’m concerned is worth the risk. I’m fairly sure this will be the plan.
Dare to Endeavour was my big fancy for The Munster National, and he ran very well for a way, but there was always the suspicion that this would be the target again. He’s another who’s far too big at 20’s, and will be half the price on the day.
I’ll probably do a book on this race, and those 2 will be on it.
I’ll give the race a proper look at the 5 day decs, but I have bet 2 already.
Ziga Boy – My main fancy, and absolutely huge at the 33’s with Ladbrokes, especially if you consider that 365 go as low as 14’s. Ran well for a long way last time at Bangor, and he’s a horse who seems to need that first run of the season. From a yard who’ve landed this before, and getting nearer to the mark he won The Skybet off of. 33’s is too big, and was worth the risk.
Double Ross – Seems to be money wasted, as he’s jocked up for The Hennessy (for which he’s way overpriced). If things don’t go to plan for him at Newbury, then this is the race for him. He seemed to be in the doldrums when he ran in last seasons Grand Sefton, but that run aside, he can boast an excellent fifth in The Topham a couple of years back, and was in the process of running a screamer in this years National, until saddle problems brought that to an end. He’s on a nice weight, and this is his kind of trip. Shame he’ll probably not go, as 25’s was a great price for him.
There’s at least another ten I’m considering for that book, but as I said, I’ll give it a proper look on Monday.
I KNOW HE HASN’T WON FOR 20 YEARS LOL. BUT IM ON ALVERADO AT 16/1 RAN ANOTHER BLINDER 1ST START THIS YEAR. ALSO BEEN ROUND AINTREE AND JUMPS THE FENCES. MIGHT BE TO FAR BACK AS USUAL BUT DO GET A RUN FOR MY MONEY
Shutthefrontdoor has been laid out for this at 16/1,he doesnt really get the National trip so this extended 3m will suit perfectly,he jumps round Aintree easily and I notice connections have pulled the 12/1fav ‘Minella Rocco’ out.That speaks volumes to me.
Cheers Joe, he’s been unbelievably good to me the last 2, 3 years. I know him well, and even if they are tempted to run him out again quickly, which I doubt they will, I wouldn’t obviously be as keen on him now, but no complaints here, as he owes me absolutely nothing.
Shutthefrontdoor has been laid out for this at 16/1,he doesnt really get the National trip so this extended 3m will suit perfectly,he jumps round Aintree easily and I notice connections have pulled the 12/1fav ‘Minella Rocco’ out.That speaks volumes to me.
Laid out my A*se! Thats just cost me a £50 e/w bet at 16/1!
When TAPK’s backs to the wall he comes out fighting and we all know what that means…..Vieux Lion Rouge at 12/1 will win now. 
After the day he had yesterday at Navan, it’s no surprise to see Gordon Elliots Ucello Conti come in for serious support in the last 24 hours, halving in price in places from 16’s, and he’s now clear market leader. He was one of my 2 bets on the day for this years National, and he rewarded me with place money, holding on for 6th. I thought his price of 33’s for the big one was harsh, and this proved to be the case. I thought he took to it alright, though if being maybe a tad critical, Jacob never really went for it, though I suppose he was trying to nurse him round, with doubts about the trip. No such fears here, on a nice mark, from a yard bang in form, and as far as I’m concerned, the market has it right, and he deserves to be favourite.
Elliots other entry in the Gigginstown owned Clarcam. He still has question marks over this trip, but the horse does have a fair share of ability, and has kept decent company in the past. He doesn’t jump off the page for this, particularly as he could be doing with maybe a helping hand from the handicapper, but I’m just of the opinion that they’ve been campaigning him with a long term plan in mind. I suspect that he’ll have a target at the festival in mind, but his Galway Plate run was solid, and not surprisingly, considering connections, I’m in no rush to write him off at very generous looking 33’s.
The other Giggs representatives, and both at attractive prices themselves, are Rogue Angel, and Wounded Warrior. The Grand National has already been earmarked as the season plan for last years Irish National hero Rogue Angel, and after a few disappointing runs, he now hovers around the kind of mark, where he might not get in. If Aintree in April is indeed the plan, then they’ll have to get the finger out, and that fact, rather than recent form, makes him of interest. At 25’s though, it’s Wounded Warrior who really stands out. He looked Gold Cup material to me, not too long back, and I still think he’d fare ok in that race, if over what kept him on the sidelines for so long. He’s had his comeback run though, over an inadequate trip, and I was happy enough with it. I suspect The National will be considered for him this year, and I can only imagine the generally available 25’s might be a relection that he might take in The Lotto Chase on the same card.
The Giggs trio all appeal for various reasons, but with this being Rogue Angels only immediate entry, he might just be the pick of them at this stage, particularly at 25’s.
Fighting Ucello Conti for favouritism, is last seasons National Runner Up, The Last Samuri. He’ll head here 10lbs higher than he was that day, and I just wonder whether they’d like to see him land this, as it would surely make landing the big one in April nigh on impossible. That theory aside though, he’s clearly coming off the back of a season which proved him highly progressive, and with a run under his belt, it’s not inconceivable that they could land this before concentrating on Graded Company for the rest of the year. The Rooneys had a few they could have sent here, so interesting that they’ve stuck with him for this. Their only other entry is Beeves, who although a solid enough horse, he doesn’t jump off the page either, and this company will be hotter than he’s used to facing. Not entirely out of it on some of his runs, but not for me.
The Potts, are other big name owners with a couple of live candidates here, in the shape of Sizing Coal, and the Colin Tizzard trained Viconte Du Noyer. I really like Sizing Coal, and after a few disappointing efforts after finishing 3rd in The 2015 Irish National, he rounded off last season in much better form, and there was a lot to like about his 3rd behind Fletchers Flyer in a hot handicap at The Punchestown Festival. He’s since come out and won again, and has the look of a horse who’s been kept up under wraps for this. The 16’s with Corals looks generous. Colin Tizzard can do no wrong at the moment, and even allowing for the hike in weights following his win at Cheltenham, there’s surely more to come from Viconte, and he deserves his place near the head of the market. This looks the plan for sure, with Coleman already jocked up.
Also jocked up is last years winner Highland Lodge, who’ll be reunited with Henry Brooke, and considering the manner of last years win, I don’t think a 5lb hike will do much to stop him. His season will surely hinge on this run, as he needs a big show here to get in at Aintree, and he’s bound to be trained to the minute for it. For a previous winner, he’s another who’s big at 16’s.
Following him home last year was Dare To Endeavour, who’s already been mentioned, and has a strong chance also. I’m surprised you can still get 20’s. Portrait King was an early fancy of mine for this, and he’s another already mentioned. As Botchy mentioned, he looked sure to be involved in this last year with the front 2, but for tipping up, and I’d be very confident that this is the plan. He will not be 33’s if he sneaks in, and with the chance of money back if he misses the cut, he’s well worth a punt at the 33’s.
When it comes to The National, I’m never a big fan of horses who’ve been round here before, but for The Becher, I’m a lot more interested in previous course form, and joining the likes of Highland Lodge & Dare to Endeavour, are Saint Are, who as well as placing in this, was second in the the 2015 National, and also Alvarado, who made the frame in the 2014 & 15 Nationals. Saint Are had excuses with the ground at Aintree this year, when he pulled up, and having been dropped a couple of pounds, he definitely comes into this. Of the pair though, I’m most interested in Alvarado, who’s already been put up by Lion. Like Lion, I liked the look of him on his comeback run, and this off the back of his fine run at Ayr, shows that age doesn’t appear to be catching up with him. Connections will be desperate to get him into the field for this years National, and a win here will take care of that. On his current mark, he has no chance of getting in. He’ll have to be ridden a bit more positively no doubt, but I’ve just got the feeling they’ll have him spot on for this, in order to make the big one, and at 14’s, he makes serious appeal.
I’ve said many times on here that The Young Master is a National Winner in waiting, and with the assistance now of Aintree specialist, Sam Waley-Cohen, then I think this could be the year, and I’m on at 33’s. I really don’t want him to land this, as there’s not much room to manoeuvre off his current mark, and I’m hoping this is just a “sighter”. I fear the worst though, and don’t think Waley-Cohen will share my concerns. I’ll stick my neck out, and say he’s probably the best horse in the field, so find it hard to rule him out here, and thought he’d be vying for favouritsm. I might cover him at the 14’s with Corals, as if he wins, then I fear my National voucher can be binned.
Vieux Lion Rouge has been very popular in the last 48 hours, and considering his run in The National, when he finished 7th, then it’s easy to understand why. Pipe seems to like this race, he’s always got a “live one”, and Vieux looks rock solid here off a very fair mark. It’s hard to see him not make the frame, and seems to have a few pounds in hand of the handicapper. It’s another horse though, who took in this years National that is really catching my eye in Aachen. Yes, he pulled up eventually, and he’s not getting any younger, but I think this trip is perfect for him, and he seemed to love it round here, taking the field along for a good way. Connections love to have a winner round these fences, and he’s been taken out of The Grand Sefton, so I’m fairly confident he’s heading here. Maybe needed to come down a couple of pounds to land it, but at 33’s, he makes massive appeal from an each way perspective.
Another who’s been round here is Bob Ford, who took in the 2015 National, eventually pulling up, but I’d like to see the heavens open before I even considered him, whereas I’d be a lot more interested in Ruben Cotter, who’s a very safe conveyance round here. He’s very big at 20’s with Stan James, but there’s the just the issue with him holding an entry in The Grand Sefton. Supporters of last years Grand Sefton 2nd, Seventh Sky, will also have the dilemna of an entry for both races, though I just feel that that horse looks a bit harshly treated overall, on what he’s actually achieved. I’d be much more interested in him for The Grand Sefton.
Silvergrove and Cogry both have many supporters on here, and both seem to have a realistic chance, and both are still available at decent odds, 18’s and 20’s respectively.
Knock House got stuck in the mud here in April behind Maggio, but his run in The Kim Muir was much more like it, and you can be sure McCain will have had this race in mind for some time, and with him being close to his last winning mark, he seems to be something of a forgotten horse at 25’s.
I’m never in a rush to write off Sue Smith runners round here, and she did me a huge turn in this a couple of years back with Mr Moonshine, and she’s represented this time around by Straidnahana & Smooth Stepper. Straidnahan would be the pick of the 2, and I do think he’ll land a decent staying chase, but he’s cost me a few quid in the past, and I’d be reluctant to get involved here, and I’ll hope that Saturday isn’t the day for him.
Lucinda Russell has had her fair share of success at this meeting, and she has an interesting runner in recent Kelso winner, One For Arthur. He won nicely last time, and should he make it here on the day, then he is not to be underestimated. He has to step up on what he’s achieved so far, but his run at Kelso last time, suggested there’s more to come.
Gas Line Boy would have a real chance off of his 3rd in The Kerry National, and he would have went close in last years Grand National trial, but for unseating when in a nice lead. He is though a bit unpredictable, and for that reason, I’ll swerve him, though he’s no 20-1 shot either.
Midnight Prayer is a horse I know very well, and for a former Cheltenham Festival Winner, he looks on a handy mark. Even at the 5 day stage though, he’s a risky Ante-Post prospect. He’s very fragile, and difficult to know how that melee he got caught up in at Cheltenham will have affected him, and if hr were mine, he wouldn’t have been turned out as quickly as he was at Haydock. He also had a really tough win at Exeter last year, where he finished on his own, and his subsequent runs suggested that that experience had taken it’s toll. It was too early to tell how he would have fared at Cheltenham, but he did seem to have more zest, and I’d be happy to put a line through that Haydock race. Although no youngster, he doesn’t have many miles on the clock, and the trainer has landed it before, so he has possibilities, but considering his frailties, even at the 33’s, he’s one to look at again on the day.
Milborough was a tad lucky to win his Eider, but jumping is the name of the game, and it still takes a strong horse to land that race. he’ll need the qualities he showed that day, to take a hand in this, but his 7th in The Scottish National wasn’t too shabby, and at 33’s, a case can be made for him.
There’s a few more down the bottom, but I’ll leave it at that for now.
I’ll be surprised after his heroics at the weekend, if Double Ross makes it, but win or lose, he owes me nothing. I’m very pleased to see Ziga Boy in there though, and happy with my 33’s. He remains my #1. I’ll have another go though, and I might just side with Aachen at the 33’s, that’s too big to refuse.
Vieux Lion Rouge, Alvarado, and Ucello Conti all look very strong, for a place at the very least, while Wounded Warrior sticks out like a sore thumb at the price.
Decent looking line up at this stage, and looking forward to it.
GL
I am on Viconte Du Noyer @ 12’s.
It’s interesting that H de Bromhead kept him at 20f but Tizzard gave him a step up in trip which he clearly enjoyed, as was seen in the BetVictor Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. I was very impressed with this run and with the form Tizzard is in at the moment I am siding with VDN to do the business.
Vieux Lion Rouge all the way for me. Had two decent stabs at him at big prices. Hoping he can do the business. Jumped around perfectly in April, going as smoothly as you could wish for until the tank emptied. James Reveley gave him a peach of a ride.
Ucello Conti has just as much going for him, he smashed the 26th in the National and stayed on better than Vieux Lion Rouge. Obvious danger. Judging by how they travelled and jumped I think VLR has the edge especially having been dropped 4lbs while Ucello dropped the 1 lbs.
I’ve backed Alvarado in both his National runs, I was particularly excited in 2015 thinking I had the winner. Sadly, he’s not got that class for a National. He’s sure to run his race here, and I was impressed with his performance in the Scottish National. These are more his type of race. I expect him to be bang there provided he isn’t given too much to do.
I’m keeping a close eye on Silvergrove as well. He hasn’t convinced this season. His run at Cheltenham last year shows what a good jumper he can be. It remains to be seen if he’s in form for this. I’m hoping he’ll run another nice race but slightly behind staying on. Look to invest for the Spring.
One that might not jump off the page is Seventh Sky. A close 2nd in the Grand Sefton last year, he stays well enough and jumps these fences well. Looks a nice price at 20s+. Didn’t get home over 3m4f166y in the Bet365, but he should see out this trip. Won the TommyWhittle at Haydock on Heavy going away from Spookydooky after that. He’s 4lbs higher than that win having run well in second last time out but that shows he’s in good form. Capable off this mark.
Think I’ll have a saver on Seventh Sky to follow up on Vieux Lion Rouge.
Good Luck
I wouldn’t count on this being a sighter for Silvergrove. He needs to win something like this to have a chance of getting in the GN
I love Alvarado always but for me The Young Master is the class horse and with the Aintree fence hero in SWC on board.
I do love this race though I must say
Jeez Bobby, if you print your race guides off I wouldn’t want to pay your printer
ink bill. Terrific stuff, Thanks for that Nice pointers there too Nulty, and like
you I’ve done well off the back of ALVARADO the last couple of seasons in the National. I
think that’s as good as he is for the big one, and that the criticism of Paul Maloney was
harsh. He’s in with a shoutThere are two that instantly interest me for different reasons. THE YOUNG MASTER has
long been my idea of a Grand National winner. I punted him, like Bobby, some time back at 33/1 for
the big one. I know he’s capable of winning this, especially if The Last Samuri stays in and he runs off
11.3, but I’d much rather he went round safely and didn’t add that few pounds more, which could be crucial
come April. I’d find it hard not to imagine TLS having The National as his year’s target and doing well off
this mark can’t possibly help his chances. Although he’s near the head of the market, it wouldn’t surprise
me if he doesn’t appear here. I’m in a bit of a quandary, if TYM runs I’d find it hard not to imagine him
being placed, so I probably would have a few quid on him.I mentioned in the Welsh National thread that I thought that COGRY could be a National
type. It may be a year too soon for him as he wouldn’t get in off this mark, but if NTD fancies him, he
would have to win something like this, and maybe then some, to get into the reckoning. If he takes to
these fences he would be interesting. Whether this National or next, he needs to get his mark up and to see
if he takes to Aintree. I missed the 20s, but as there’s still loads of 16s about I’m going to keep an eye
and see if someone pushes him back out a bit, if he starts moving blue I’ll grab the 16s.So many decent horses in here to make a case for, I’ll wait till I see how they finally thin down before
I decide to consider any more.
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