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Jeriko cashed out for this as he’s staying at 2 miles. Leaves Ballyburn 8-1 and Firefox 14-1.
Interesting that willmount runs in the Challow
I had a few pennies on him for this yesterday
Ballyburn my main hope at this stage
I had a few quid on him the Friday of Cheltenham 2023 for both this and the bartlett so fingers crossed
He looks to have the right mix of speed and stamina for a ballymore
I doubt they would switch the Ballyburn favourite to a race he may not win. The 2 miler at the DRF along the way like they did with Sir Gerhard an option.
Sir G went to the ballymore as they had dysart dynamo for the supreme and wanted to split them up
Willie’s cupboard is looking bare at 2 miles atm
His run style reminds me of klassical dream. If it’s soft ground can see him in the supreme
The horse that was 2nd today can go Supreme if they want. Mirazur West is still in the picture if he wins next week. Mystical Power another possible. And Tullyhill looks a 2 miler.
My Tullyhill bets have temporarily been retrieved from the bin
Until he runs in graded company no idea how good he is
Could be a 130 horse could be a 150 horse we will find out next time
He jumped much better today but still got plenty to work on
Billericay Dickie shortened up after winning his maiden today
In a time 8 seconds slower than the other novice race and three seconds quicker than the handicap won by an 85 rated horse…
Jit Langy 40-1 ew b365.
I already have him for the Supreme in a double with Ballyburn for this, but after a bit more thought about who might ride what and the stable tour mentioning this race for JL, I’ve backed him here in a single ew and done the Mystical Power Supreme/ Jit Langy Baring B win double too.
Looks like the Supreme for Ballyburn – Mullins in change of target shock (not), I reckon.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Don’t think he’s ever named a target for him
He hasn’t even named the Supreme as the target people are assuming
He may decide that mystical power has a better chance in the Supreme than ile atlantique and reading Tommy wrong have in this
Meaning ballyburn comes here
The ground will also be a factor
I doubt they will decide until final decs
Well it’s been about 6 years, so fingers crossed this won’t be a brief stay.
I wanted to talk about Ballyburn.
At the start of the season I thought the two nicest novice prospects were Ballyburn and Gidleigh Park. I backed Ballyburn for the Ballymore and Gidleigh Park for the Albert Bartlett. We are a few months on and I am still as certain as I can be that those remain the right targets for those horses. My bets are small, but it could be that I am now looking at the prospect of not getting a run out of either bet. When you take a long term view that’s disappointing. Irrespective of betting you can actually care what happens to these horses. I don’t particularly want to see them get beat.
This is a little summary of the views I have expressed in various places around the internet.
Ballyburn has finished all his races off very strongly, and that includes his point. His pedigree shouts stayer, and every race has provided visual confirmation that’s exactly what he is. Why he started off over two miles I don’t know. That’s the reason why we now have this mess. Had he started over the intermediate trip he would be unbeaten, and heading towards the Ballymore. The reason he might not be can only be down to Mullins wanting to try and prove that he was right to run the horse over the minimum trip. Nothing to do with what might actually suit the horse. He has now managed to run the horse over the wrong trip on 2/3 runs, and may well make that 3/4. You wouldn’t believe he was handling a potential Gold Cup horse. He has tried to make something of the horse running too freely, but clearly that was totally overblown, and it still hadn’t stopped him finishing every race strongly. Walsh was another to parrot that idea.
I believe the horse achieved more in winning the small field race over the intermediate trip at Christmas than the Grade 1 at the DRF. That was a shocking Grade 1. It ended up being a two-horse race with the second horse, Slade Steel, being another stayer, but clearly not as good a stayer as the winner. Ballyburn was only confirming bumper form with Slade Steel. He didn’t even have to improve on that. Farren Glory ran no race and the rest were quite likely a bunch of handicappers. There has almost been a campaign within the media (most sponsored by bookmakers) to get this horse in the Supreme. Many had no doubt taken a flyer that Mullins would go flakey on the the Ballymore, and use this race as evidence to run in the Supreme. You had Hislop asserting to Mullins that ‘surely it’s the Supreme’. That was just embarrassing. It’s her job to ask where the horse is going, not to tell him. I haven’t seen a bookmaker graphic for the Ballymore all season even though Ballyburn has been favourite from the start. Bookmakers would love to see Ballyburn run in the Supreme as they actually have a chance to get him beat in that race, and they will hoover up the Ballymore money as well. They would likely have no chance of getting a result in the Ballymore. So why take the risk? The owner (in jest) suggested he might run in the Albert Bartlett. That would actually be a safer, and more sensible option than the Supreme.
Ballyburn is the leading novice and should be winning at the Festival. It shouldn’t be about shuffling anything else, he should just run in the race that suits him best, and that choice should be obvious. If he doesn’t win at the Festival it will be the worst training performance of the season, and a self inflicted wound.
Hi Stilvi, nice to see you back.
When looking at Ballyburn’s pedigree you’re right it does shout “stayer” or at least intermediate trip.
However, when what the horse has done on the track (including temperament) is taken into account then – for me – it is easy to see why Mullins has probably chosen the Supreme / 2m trip. Horses who race freely don’t usually stay anywhere near as far as their pedigree suggests and on Racing Post Results comments…
1st ever race, in a point to point at 3 miles – “moderate 3rd, rapid progress to join leader at last, quickened clear”
2nd ever start – in a 2m NHF race – “pulled hard”.
3rd start 2m on good to yielding NHF – “took keen hold”
5th start (2nd start over hurdles) at 2m4f but just a maiden – “took keen hold… led going easily (usual two out) soon went clear, impressive.
6th start (going from a maiden to Group 1 company) back at 2m – “travelled strongly… led narrowly after (usual 3 out), went clear going best after last (usual 2 out).Had Ballyburn won the Grade 1 2m hurdle not by “travelled strongly” and “going best” but by being pushed along, outpaced, under pressure, stayed on… then he’d be going for the longer distance, but he didn’t.
So it is not that Ballyburn has particularly outstayed his rivals. He’s gone there “going easily” “soon went clear”, “went clear going best after usual 2 out”. Even on his 3 mile point it was his speed that was evident from a moderate position “rapid progress to join leader at last, quickened clear”… And at 2m4f he took a keen hold and led going easily before went clear, impressive. So at 2m4f it was his speed that is his asset. But that was only a maiden. If he “takes a hold” – or worse – in grade 1 company might not get away with it. Especially as rivals will know they’ve got him to beat and therefore make the pace disadvantage Ballyburn.
It is only Ballyburn’s defeat on his fourth start where there is any suggestion of not having the pace for a 2 mile event when beaten by Firefox. If I remember rightly Mullins was not in as good form then and also Ballyburn probably needed the run. Every other performance suggests he was not right this day, so it can easily be overlooked.
Yes, Ballyburn may improve later at a longer trip when he’s definitely learnt to settle. But he’s pretty much proved up to Supreme winning standard right now. At the moment better than all the other potential 2 milers. So why take the risk of him being too free at a longer trip at Cheltenham? Some of these “pulled hard” and “took keen hold”s, even “travelled strongly” came at 2 miles. So at a longer trip and therefore at a slower pace… he could easily be even freer than he’s been at 2m. ie Defeat is imo far more likely if going up in distance. Only time I might reconsider is if the going is particularly fast at Cheltenham.
I do expect Ballyburn to eventually be better over further… But for the moment – for the horse’s sake – I hope he remains at 2 miles for now. Put it this way: If going for the 2m4f option I’d only want a shortish price to be able to back him. But if going for the 2m option that backable price would be a fair bit shorter still. If going for the 3 mile option I’d want considerably bigger to back him… And considering his reputation much more likely to be a layer at the extended trip.
Sorry Stilvi, can’t agree with you.
Hope you’ll stay.
Value Is EverythingSupreme can be hard ridden and stamina can come into play
Bingham they can go steadier and speed can come into playBallyburn wins whichever Mullins runs him in
I did back Slade Steel a while ago for the Bingham at a decent price so my preference would be for Ballyburn to go to the Supreme
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Thanks, I will at least stay long enough to reply.
I really hope this isn’t an attempt to play devil’s advocate.
The reference to pulling is not even a point when it hasn’t stopped the horse finishing strongly. His weakest finish, in a comparative sense, was his last one, probably because he had already been asked to go faster than ideal. As I said that race was a shocker for the Grade, he had the run of the race, and ended up beating a horse who wants a longer trip. That’s why he got away with it, and won as he did. Pace would be the last word I would have used to describe that performance.
The analysis that you quote is a person’s opinion, not fact. I have read these before, and wondered if said person was watching the same race. There are all sorts of ‘keen’ from being out of control to it just being a trait of the horse that doesn’t hinder performance. On all known evidence, he is very much in the latter camp.
The excuse for the Firefox defeat doesn’t add up. He just looked like what he is, a stayer, who was beaten by a horse who on the day had more pace than he did. The idea that Mullins would send out his leading novice hurdler half baked as well as running him over the wrong trip?
You make it sound as if he would struggle to stay the Ballymore trip which is ridiculous. The trip would be so much easier for him than a Supreme.
Can you really imagine him strolling along on the front end of a Supreme in the way he did at Leopardstown? They usually go a million in that race, and there is a pretty good chance he could be taken out of his comfort zone, and if he hits a hurdle it could be game over. The choice is between trying to get away with it over the minimum trip (and why would you even consider that) or a much more likely win gained by running over a trip that actually suits the horse.
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