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Oh, it’s THAT Michael, or should I say Michael Sir….
I was a bit slow, must be my age….
Yes Michael, I do play Stateside and I used to find it quite profitable up to a couple of years ago, but I have only dabbled over there this past year…. I think that it might be rather longer than that for Bill, his rheumatism prevents him from having a dabble….
at the end of the day, you can only do so much. I spent 3 years building up a database that I purchased and there was a couple of thousand hours of work put into that, but as always, after the glorious 12 months, the balloon deflates and I’m left holding crap. ‘m hoping that it is just this weather that has caused the upheaval, I hate betting on Heavy ground and these last few months it’s always Heavy…. so I moved onto Aussie racing with Bill and I’m very pleased with the progress so far…. different way of race reading down there, everything is arse backwards, but it’s been enjoyable….
As Bill says, welcome to our own personal little bed space…..
MrE
OZZY’S BETS….
Race 2 Hamilton… Designer Portrait @ 3.00…. LOST…
Race 1 Gosford… Acumen @ 2.50…. WON @ 2.50…
Race 5 Launceston… Sheorta @ 3.60…. LOST…
Race 8 Launceston… Up Wind @ 3.80…. LOST…MrE
MrE is complaining it is possible he is a bit slow these days and I must say he is not alone because I forgot to mention the Hyped Horse, perhaps it was the excitement of seeing a post from Michael which may have caused my brain fade.
CELTIC LOVE in race 4 at Gosford did not truly make the system cut, in fact it missed the mark by a country mile but I was attracted by Betfair’s price which was out of line with other bookies at 11/4 and so being devil may care today I have stumped up a half point stake and will keep my fingers crossed for more good fortune.
Billy's Outback Shack
Godolphin on the GOLD COAST – Saturday
The Gold Coast will be enjoying a superb card this Saturday with 9 races, 2 with winners prize money of 2 million AuD = £1.1 million sterling plus 5 races with winners prize of 1 million AuD = in excess of 1/2 million pounds sterling.
I have searched the cards for any UK entries but alas our trainers do not appear to look beyond the Melbourne Cup and may be they are missing out.
Goldolphin, the Boys in Blue have 3 runners at unusually large prices when compared to what we can expect here at home: –
ISAURIAN R4 @ 7/2. EXHILARATES R6 @ 14/1. CONCEITED R7 @ 8/1
3 places – NO winnersBilly's Outback Shack
With a few spare minutes to waste this afternoon I thought it worthwhile looking at the Meydan-Dubai card.
My first excitement was seeing BENBATL in Race 4 but such anticipation soon fade when I saw the available and very, very short price. . . . WON at a really silly price.
Race 6 looks interesting with NORTH AMERICA @ even money. . . . . Pipped at the post!
I shall watch the result without any money changing hands.
Billy's Outback Shack
Friday: –
Lingfield
12.35 – MOONDANCE @ 11/4
2.20 – ISLAND HIDEAWAY @ 7/4 . . . . . . . WON
2.55 – NOBLE PEACE @ 11/4 . . . . . . . . WON
3.25 – SALKEEV @ 7/4Wolverhampton
6.45 – KNOCKABOUT QUEEN @ 9/4 . . . . . . WONShould a little bit of Irish take your fancy: –
Dundalk
6.00 – IRRADIATE – available 2/1
7.00 – NO NEEDS NEVER – available 10/11
8.00 – MAJOR POWER – available 7/2
NO winnersI am not suggesting Dundalk to be a strange place because I have never been there but being an AW surface these are system selections.
Billy's Outback Shack
Wow!!!…. 8 selections…. that’s not like you Bill, it looks like your trying to grab a winner at any cost… with 4 previous selections from Oz, your entering Friday with 12 bets mate…. by any accounts, that’s a fair chunk of overload…. we are all looking for winners, but 12 selections on a Friday is really pushing your luck and looks like a bit of straw grasping…. keep it tidy Bill, keep it under control, 12 selections is bordering on the desperate and your too good for that….
MrE
Good morning to you MrE.
Just to put you at your ease and remove the stress because I do know how much you worry about me
My domestic experiment with UK AW winter racing is with minimal stakes. The Irish – Dundalk are posted out of interest only because they are being run on a similar surface and our title here is Australia and other strange places.
Meydan really is again another strange place and posted out of interest without any money placed on the one selection.
The Gold Coast big day, Saturday, is only an interest comment regarding the Boys in Blue and nothing else thus leaving 3 overnight bets in Australia of which 2 are losers, so far.
The Bank of Billion remains in tact.
Billy's Outback Shack
My apologies Cuddley…. I thought you were betting ALL of them…. I stand corrected….
I had a bit of a crap day yesterday, I hope yours fared a little better….MrE
My story is similar MrE with negative overnight results placing me back into the red.
Although I remain undecided regarding betting on Saturdays I have only one selection for tomorrow and so it really is not worth my worrying about it for another week.
BF -1.55pts.
MOSCINI – Warwick @ 6/4 with a small boost via UNIBET. . . . . WON
CF -00.20pts
I missed out by using UNIBET vs bet365 who offer an Australian version of BOG whereas I took the slightly larger price on offer . . . . swings and roundabouts I guess.
Billy's Outback Shack
Yep, I’ve got to agree with you there Wilbur….. Saturdays 150 meetings does cause a few headaches Down Under, but needs must when the Devil drives.
When I have too many selections on any one day, it is my position to only bet the first 4 in order of time, but I will relax that rule today because I have 5 and I’m sure one extra is not going to damage the bank….OZZY’S BETS….
Race 1 Murray… Our Deep Agenda @ 2.90…. LOST…
Race 2 Flemington… Rubisaki @ 2.15…. WON…
Race 3 Werribee… Cupids Bow @ 2.20…. WON…
Race 7 Flemington… Bumper Blast @ 2.40…. LOST…
Race 5 Pinjarra… Not To Be Mist @ 2.00…. LOST…MrE
3 winners from 5 selections at Lingfield & Wolverhampton gives plenty to be optimistic about going into Saturday.
Looking back over the 22 selections which provided 10 winners has a SR of 45% which is not too shabby and I can almost hear MrE telling me a minimum price of 6/4 is essential to make the smallest of profits.
Lingfield
12.15 AGENT of FORTUNE @ 6/4
2.00 DREAM MAGIC @ 13/8 Typo correction – RED MIST (not Dream Magic)
3.10 MRS UPJOHN @ 6/4 . . . . . . . . . . WON
3.40 HOLIDAY MAGIC @ 5/2 . . . . . . . . WONBilly's Outback Shack
Not 6/4 Bill, I was told by someone far more knowledgeable than myself, that 2/1 was the absolute bottom line. He said that if any of my selections were LESS than 2/1, I would make more profit by NOT backing them. I have kept a record ever since those early days and it upsets me to say that the guy was correct…. any winners that I have had at the lower prices, have not shown much of a profit at all, yes, they have kept my head above water, but overall, they are crap when weighed against the risk.
I still bet at stupid prices because I don’t want to miss a winner, but it’s false accounting…. when I look back over the past year, backing horses at less than 2/1 has been profitable, but only marginally so, you wouldn’t make a living out of it….. I suppose the answer is to be very picky in what you bet at the lower odds… I’m not talking of looking for that elusive “value”, I’m talking about possibly using those crap priced selections to boost your bank… if you’ve got to bet even money shots, then use them to enhance your bets on better priced selections…. a boost…. on their own, as a single, they are as weak as water, but grouping them together might give you a rocket up your bot…. just sayin’….
MrE
Once again there are words from the wise and we can all live and learn at the feet of the master.
Perhaps there can be an excuse MrE which can be based on targets.
Here, we are aiming at 6 to 12pts. for a month and maybe the shorties will help achieve such a target.
Nevertheless I am intending to check the 2/1 minimum rule which would reduce my Australian [overnight] bets to zero and therefore I would have missed some good profits, especially as the Super 9’s (you know what I mean) chucked up 3 from 4 winners.
Billy's Outback Shack
Very quickly I have checked my UK AW results so far [January], all 10 days!
Based on 1pt. level stakes for prices taken and returns [not Sp’s] and my profit would have been +2.5 extra. Being a mathematical “plonker” I imagine it would be a huge percentage increase. At my stakes it does not make a great deal of difference but if serious stakes were employed the void would be colossal.
Billy's Outback Shack
Morning my young hoppity skippity ‘roo, stop jumping about for a minute and cast your eyes over these….
OZZY’S BETS….
Race 2 Alabany… Eurasia @ 2.40…. WON…
Race 4 Albany… Demeritise @ 3.80…. LOST…
Race 9 Albany… Lido Beach @ 3.25…. LOST…MrE
I was a bit slow, must be my age….
at the end of the day, you can only do so much. I spent 3 years building up a database that I purchased and there was a couple of thousand hours of work put into that, but as always, after the glorious 12 months, the balloon deflates and I’m left holding crap. ‘m hoping that it is just this weather that has caused the upheaval, I hate betting on Heavy ground and these last few months it’s always Heavy…. so I moved onto Aussie racing with Bill and I’m very pleased with the progress so far…. different way of race reading down there, everything is arse backwards, but it’s been enjoyable….
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